Crossing the Sea 2016year11month7day

Crossing the Sea 2016year11month7day

Focus this week:
11month7day(Monday)
U.S.A10Monthly employment trend index

11month8day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9Monthly Consumer Credit
United States10monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A9monthJOLTS职位空缺数

11month9day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate
U.S.A9月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A9月批发销售月率修订

11month10day(Thursday)
U.S.A11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits

11month11day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly federal budget
U.S.A11月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值
U.S.A11月密西根大学现况指数
U.S.A11月密西根大学预期指数



Important economic data released today:        
06：30 Australia10monthAIG建筑业指数‧Previous value51.4
08：00 Japan9Monthly overtime pay‧Previous value-1.9%
08：30 Australia10monthANZ整体招聘广告‧Previous value-0.3%
15：00 Germany9Monthly industrial order rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+1.0%
16：15 Switzerland10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value+0.1%
16：15 Switzerland10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧Previous value-0.2%
16：30 britain10monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧Previous value+0.1%
16：30 UK as of10Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index‧Previous value+5.8%
17：30 eurozone11monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧Predict positive9.5‧Front value positive8.5
18：00 eurozone9Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast-0.5%‧Previous value-0.1%
18：00 eurozone9Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Previous value+0.6%
23：00 U.S.A10Monthly employment trend index‧Previous value128.5

11month8day (Tuesday)
04：00 U.S.A9Monthly Consumer Credit‧Forecast increase190Billion‧Previous value increase258.7Billion



11month4day
LondongoldMorning order price:1301.70
London gold afternoon fixing price:1302.80



XAU London Gold - 避险需求支撑金价，聚焦美国大选

美国大选进入最后三天，周六共和党候选人特朗普和民主党候选人希拉里在佛罗里达州举行拉票活动 。佛罗里达州是摇摆州之一，在周二的投票中或将起到决定性作用。州民调显示，在所有选情胶着的摇摆州中，佛罗里达州是竞争最为激烈的州之一。另外，民调显示，希拉里在对于大选结果有决定性影响的各州依然占有优势。但她的领先优势在一周前曝出FBI在调查电邮门事件之后缩窄。周六McClatchy-Marist对全美选民的民调显示，希拉里支持率领先1个百分点，低于9Monthly6个百分点。周六路透/益普索调查显示，希拉里在全国的支持率领先4个百分点，低于周五的5Points.

美国劳工部周五公布，10Monthly addition of non-agricultural employment positions16.1万个，预估为增加17.5Ten thousand.8Month and9月新增岗位数据被上修，较之前报告的数据总计增加4.4Ten thousand.10月平均时薪增加0.1USD, or0.4%, year-on-year growth2.8%，增幅为近七年半以来最大。10The monthly unemployment rate has decreased0.1Percentage points, to4.9%。

美国股市标普500指数周五连续第九日下跌，为逾35年来最长跌势，因美国大选降至，选情胶着让投资者感到不安。纳斯达克指数也连续第九日下跌，道琼工业指数连续第七日收跌。至于金价则告持稳，更创下9月中来最大单周涨幅，因对下周美国大选结果的担忧抵消了稳健的美国就业报告支撑下月加息预期所产生的影响。金价周五最高触及1306.61美元，贴近周三的全周高位1307.76USD.

技术图表所见，伦敦黄金近月处于强势反弹，当前阻力料先看100Balance moving average1315水平，在之前八月及九月份，金价亦是以此指标为重要支持依据，故支持变阻力下，应当亦为关键参考，倘若破位将可望金价延展又一轮涨势，后续目标见于1325and1343。支持位则预估在1294and1285美元，进一步看至25Balance moving average1270。

London Gold11month7day – 11month11Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1323 – 1335 – 1371 – 1398
Support bit:1295 – 1284 – 1259 – 1238

London Gold11month7day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1289 – 1315
Resistance level:1328 – 1359
Support bit:1276 – 1259


中国黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金产量同比下降2.56%，黄金消费量降12.82%

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton
10month28Day - 942.59ton
10month31Day - 942.59ton
11month1Day - 945.26ton
11month2Day - 945.26ton
11month3Day - 949.69ton
11month4Day - 949.69ton


12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88，直至上周初终见明显突破，最高涨至18.74美元，但之后升势放缓，技术上受制100Balance moving average, currently100The balance moving average is at18.95，倘若破位，可望银价将进一步上探19.30To the extent that19.80The US dollar is facing significant resistance20.30水平。下方支持预估在18.00and25Balance moving average17.75，较大支持预料为200Balance moving average17.49USD.

London Silver11month7day – 11month11Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:19.00 – 19.40 – 19.90 – 20.50
Support bit:17.70 – 17.20 – 16.70 – 16.20

London Silver11month7day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.00 – 18.70
Resistance level:19.10 – 19.40
Support bit:17.60 – 17.20

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton
10month26Day - 11395.28ton
10month27Day - 11218.19ton
10month28Day - 11218.19ton
10month31Day - 11218.19ton
11month1Day - 11235.90ton
11month2Day - 11148.60ton
11month3Day - 11148.60ton
11month4Day - 11148.60ton



EUR euro - 美国选情摇摆，美元走势承压

受制于对大选前景不明的不安情绪，一周来美元多数时间下跌。大部分民调仍显示，支持率难分伯仲，这是令投资者不安的根本原因。最新的路透/易普索民调显示，希拉里的支持率微幅领先特朗普。不过几个特朗普必须拿下的摇摆州，已从偏向希拉里转为五五波，令特朗普阵营看到一线曙光。特朗普宣称要限制移民，重新考虑贸易关系，并对进口商品实行高关税。一些人担心他当选会对全球贸易和经济增长构成风险。

美国劳工部周五公布，10月美国新增非农就业岗位16.1万个，预估为增加17.5Ten thousand.8Month and9月新增岗位数据被上修，较之前报告的数据总计增加4.4Ten thousand.10月平均时薪增加0.1USD, or0.4%, year-on-year growth2.8%，增幅为近七年半以来最大。10The monthly unemployment rate has decreased0.1Percentage points, to4.9%。因对下周美国大选结果的担忧抵消了稳健的美国就业报告支撑下月加息预期所产生的影响，美元指数周五录得连续第四日下跌，欧元兑美元则涨至最高1.1143。

欧元兑美元走势，技术图表所见，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数仍处上升，可望短期欧元尚有进一步反弹空间，当前阻力至200Balance moving average1.1180，此水平应会面对较严峻阻力，破位目标料在1.1280and1.14。下方支持则预估在1.1070and25Balance moving average1.1030水平，较大支撑料为1.0880Horizontal.

Focus:
11month7day(one): Germany9Monthly industrial order rate‧eurozone11monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone9Monthly retail sales
11month8day(two): Germany9Monthly industrial production rate‧出口月率‧进口月率‧trade balance‧France9Budget balance within the month and year to date‧流动帐平衡‧trade balance‧Import‧Export
11month10day(four): France9Monthly industrial production rate‧法国第三季非农就业岗位季率‧Italy9Monthly industrial production‧Germany11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
11month11day(five): Germany10monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1100 – 1.1160 – 1.1200
support 1.0850 – 1.0500* – 1.0450*



JPY yen - 央行维持政策不变，再次推迟通胀率目标达成时间

美元兑日圆周二及周三显著下滑，并已跌破近月来形成的上升趋向线，技术上反映汇价仍见下调压力。由9month27Daily low100.07至上周五高位105.53Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的调整水平为103.44，相当接近周三午间触及的低位，若进一步扩展至50%and61.8%的调整幅度，则可看至102.80and102.15。预计关键支持则指向101.20Horizontal. The estimated resistance above is104and105.50水平，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.10Horizontal.

Focus:
11month7day(one): Japan9Monthly overtime pay
11month8day(two): Japan10monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan9Monthly Simultaneous Indicator Monthly Rate‧Leading indicator monthly rate
11month9day(three): Japan10月银行贷款年率‧流动帐
11month10day(four): Japan9月核心机械订单‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week
11month11day(five): Japan10monthCGPI‧Japan11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 104.00 – 105.50 – 107.10
support 102.80 – 102.15 – 101.20



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，汇价更于本周四升破了25天平均线，技术上可望延续反扑势头。阻力先探1.25水平，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.2630and1.28水平。支持位预估在1.2250and1.21Horizontal.        

Focus:
11month7day(one): UK10monthHalifax房价指数月率英国截至10Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
11month8day(two): UK10monthBRC同店零售销售年率‧britain9Monthly industrial production‧Manufacturing output
11month9day(three): UK9Monthly trade balance with non EU regions‧全球商品贸易平衡
11month10day(four): UK10monthRICSPrice difference‧britain11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
11month11day(five): UK9月建筑业产出

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 – 1.2630
support 1.2080 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

美元兑瑞郎走势，随着图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已陷入超卖区域，预料汇价跌势可能将见缓止，即市较近阻力可先留意250Balance moving average0.9820and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440Horizontal.

Focus:
11month7day(one)Switzerland10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
11month8day(two)Switzerland10Monthly unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9820 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - The central bank maintains interest rates unchanged

澳元兑美元上周虽连日上涨，但累计涨幅却未能推动其超越0.77美元障碍。澳洲央行周五公布的货币政策声明称，“有理由 展望”能实现可持续的经济成长，因商品价格在中国的强劲需求帮助下上涨，提振了澳洲的贸易条件。澳洲统计局周五公布，9月经季节调整零售销售较前月增长0.6%。 Reuters survey estimates growth0.4%。这更加让人揣测澳洲央行为期五年的宽松举措几乎已经结束，澳元因而短暂走扬。

技术图表所见，较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看100Balance moving average0.7560And the upward trend line0.7520，跌破此区将见澳元重回弱势发展，延伸目标看至0.7410of250天平均线位置。

Related news
Australia9月经季调商品/服务贸易收支为逆差12.27AUD 100 million
Australia9月经季调商品/服务出口较前月增加2%，进口下滑1%
Australia9月经季节调整零售销售较前月增长0.6%
澳洲第三季经季节调整零售销售较前季下降0.1%

货币政策声明：澳洲央行看好经济增长前景，因商品价格攀升

Focus:
11month7day(one): Australia10monthAIG建筑业指数‧ANZ整体招聘广告
11month8day(two): Australia10monthNABBusiness Status Index‧NABBusiness confidence index
11month10day(four): Australia9Monthly housing financing‧Investment oriented housing financing
11month11day(five): Australia11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7560 – 0.7520 – 0.7410



NZD New Zealand dollars - 重启升势

周五公布的一项路透调查显示，分析师普遍预期纽西兰央行11month10日政策会议料将官方隔夜拆款利率调降25Bps to1.75%The record low point.33位受访分析师中，30名预估纽西兰央行将降息，三名预期维持利率不变。多数分析师预期后续不会再降息，但有八名分析师预计明年利率将于1.50%触底。此项调查询问了分析师对11month10日会议后，及接下来五季季末利率动向的看法。

纽元兑美元方面，图表所见，纽元在10月中旬守住了0.70关口之后，则开展反弹势头，至10month20日升见0.7265,虽然此后出现回吐，但近日已见重新攀升，并于本周三出现显著升幅，突破了10month20日的高位，技术上料有进一步上涨空间，目标先看0.7380，下一级关键则是9月份未有突破的0.75关口。支持位则会回看50Balance moving average0.7230and0.7180Expected significant support in0.71Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand10月房价指数同比涨12.7%，为央行限贷政策以来最慢增速

Focus:
11month9day(three): New Zealand10月电子卡零售销售
11month10day(four)：纽西兰央行利率决定
11month11day(five): New Zealand10月制造业表现指数(PMI)‧食品价格指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 缓步走弱

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Focus:
11month8day(two): Canada10月房屋开年率‧Canada9Monthly building permit rate
11month10day(four): Canada11Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Canada9Monthly New Housing Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)