兴业投资：市场情绪谨慎 日央行&澳储行来袭

兴业投资：市场情绪谨慎 日央行&澳储行来袭

2016year11month1day

euro/dollar

周一美国公布的经济数据整体良好，美国9月个人消费支出月率增长0.5%，增幅创三个月以来的最大;U.S.APCEAnnual growth rate of price index1.2%, creating2014year11月以来的最大。数据令美元指数重拾上行动能。但是FBI对希拉里“邮件门”的调查令美元指数在尾盘回吐部分涨幅，最终小幅收涨，持稳于98关口上方。欧元/美元虽因此探底回升，但上行动能始终乏力，最终收录一根下影线较长的阴线，承压于1.10大关下方。隔夜欧元区公布的GDP等数据符合预期，具体显示，欧元区第三季度GDP年率和季率初值分别为1.6%and0.3%;10月消费者物价指数年率初值也由0.4%Ascend to0.5%，暗示欧元区经济增长前景良好。数据对欧元有一定的支撑作用。今日欧元区无数据，可关注美国10monthISM制造业指数和营建支出月率等数据。

日图企稳于近期跌势的23.6%Reverse gear1.0950上方，该位构成短期支持。但仍受阻于1.10Near.4小时图汇价位于看涨的20SMA上方，技术指标重启升势，位于正区域，暗示跌势有限。但需要突破1.10才能改善技术前景。38.2%回档位位于1.1010，如破将确认周二进一步反弹。1Hour chart1.0935附近受支撑震荡反弹，但依旧受制于1.10Gateway.

Support position:1.0950/1.0910/1.0850

Resistance level:1.1010/1.1045/1.1090

pound/dollar

Before the Bank of England's interest rate decision this Thursday, the pound/The US dollar remains at a low range consolidation, with a slight rebound overnight and closing at1.2234The suspense of this week's interest rate decision is not too great. Recently, the UK has released good economic data, which has eased the possibility of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. But in the past two days, the news that Bank of England Governor Carney will resign has become a topic of concern for market participants. Fortunately, in a letter to UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond on Monday, Carney stated that he would extend his term by one year and remain in office until2019year6At the end of the month;Stay in office until the expected Lisbon Treaty50After the Brexit process, it should help ensure an orderly transition of the UK towards a new relationship with the EU. Carney's retention is also the main reason for the overnight rebound of the pound. Today's Focus on the UK10Monthly manufacturing industryPMI,Expected to be54.5。

Technically, the short-term outlook for the daily chart is bullish.4The hourly chart shows that the exchange rate is still neutral, with technical indicators turning upwards and located near the midline, but the exchange rate still oscillates around a flat level20SMANearby, as long as it is located in the recent downtrend23.6%Reverse gear1.2335Below, the upward potential is still limited.1The hourly chart shows that the exchange rate is accelerating its breakthrough20SMAThe moving average is currently located at1.2170The upward momentum is strong, and technical indicators continue to rise, approaching the overbought area.

Support position:1.2170/1.2130/1.2085

Resistance level:1.2250/1.2290/1.2335

dollar/Japanese yen

在今日日央行利率决议公布之前，日元的走势基本跟随美元，促使美元/日元小幅反弹，最高上探105关口上方，但最终依旧收于该关口下方。目前市场的焦点集中在稍后将公布的决议上，继上一次决议日央行调整了货币框架结构之后，预计本次日央行将按兵不动。日本央行距离实施更多宽松举措还需等上一段时间，该央行更有可能对外部冲击做出回应。而且近期日央行行长黑田东彦也表示，他已经摆脱了以往激进的政策姿态;他此前祭出的一系列大规模货币宽松行动对于推高通胀几无帮助。当然也不排除日央行又会给市场带来“大惊喜”。如果日央行维持利率不变的话，投资者需重点关注黑田东彦的讲话，以获取未来日央行未来货币政策的方向;如果日央行采取进一步宽松的话，美元/日元将有望冲上200Above the daily moving average(105.60frontline)。

日图倾向于上行，尽管当日技术指标表明汇价缺乏上行动能，汇价处在上周走出的数月高位105.53不远处。4小时图显示技术同样朝南，汇价处在看涨的 100 SMA上方，即维持在 104.00 附近。若汇价跌破该水平，汇价上行倾向降低。1小时图显示汇价处在100 and 200小时均线上方，技术指标朝南，处在中线附近，表明汇价短期内有望延续下行。

Support position:104.70/104.30/103.95

Resistance level:105.10/105.50/106.00

AUD/dollar

澳大利亚通胀回升，促进澳元/美元连续第二个交易日小幅回暖，攀至0.76关口上方。今日市场聚焦稍后的澳储行利率决议。据路透社对经济学家的调查来看，继5Month and8月降息之后，预计澳储行将在今日保持1.5%的利率不变。自上次货币政策会议以来，零售销售有所增长，消费者与经济活动信心增强，贸易赤字收窄，更重要的是，铁矿石价格飙升了逾2%. AUD/美元当前交投水平大致持平于10month4日，因此其对澳元走强的忧虑仍未发生改变。澳储行在转变当前的中性货币政策倾向之前可以继续等待，以观察当地以及全球经济下个月的表现。如果决议如预期的话，澳元有望在0.76关口上方进一步扩大涨幅。

日图连续两日反弹至20日均线附近，若能企稳于该水平上方将继续走强。4小时图若能上破重要阻力位0.7685一线将加速上行。小时图暂时维持在反弹高位0.7655-0.7690Interval oscillation.

Support position:0.7600/0.7550/0.7500

Resistance level:0.7685/0.7700/0.7750