金慧眼：减产假面撕破，国内油价调整搁浅基本确定

Jin Huiyan:

减产假面撕破，国内油价调整搁浅基本确定

International news surface

crude oil万圣节真撞鬼重挫近4% 都怪撕破减产假面后太可怕

周末产油国召开的会议不但没有达成协议，还暴露了各自之间的分歧，引发市场对减产前景的质疑。此外，10monthOPEC产量创新高。重压之下原油周一重挫近4%。

周三国内油价调整搁浅基本确定

由于市场质疑OPEC限产声明能否落实，加之美联储12月加息预期增强提振了美元，使本轮成品油调价幅度不断收窄，搁浅概率大增；当前油价并未出现明显的持续上行或下行走势，对应调价幅度或难超过正负50element/吨。当前，国内汽油零售价格已基本进入6元时代，若本轮调价最终搁浅，则需等到11month16day24时才可能迎来新一轮调整。在线一对一交流指导微信qjinhh

Analysis of crude oil market
油价月初曾大幅攀升，主要受OPEC达成口头减产协议的支撑。不过，在10月的后半段，油价并没有因此继续攀升，越来越多的迹象表明，OPEC牵头的产油国减产协议，更可能是一纸空文，这使得油价的后市走势前景依然暗淡。本月(10month31day-11month6Day and Week)市场的主要焦点依然是OPEC月底的维也纳会议，有关这次会议结果的预期将始终在本月制约油价走势。此外，投资者还要关注，美国原油产量变化、原油库存变化以及中国原油需求等因素对油价的影响。
yesterday(10month31day)原油低开高走，回补低开的缺口,亚欧盘期间行情一直处于个横盘整理的阶段，在欧盘尾声原油迎来了一波反弹，最高反弹至49.74美元，随后行情开启了下跌指路，一路刷新日内低点，最低跌至46.63美元，虽然期间有所反弹，但是力度都不是很大，最终收盘于46.86美元。从日线上看，昨日再次收得一根实体阴柱，昨日收月线给了我们大大惊喜，单边下跌了一百多个点，布林带开口向下运行，K线运行在布林带下轨下方，绿色动能柱持续放量，目前行情已经跌出了下行通道，金慧认为日内行情将会有所回调，多头将得到喘息的机会，但是我们的大体方向不要变，那就是空，目标可以看至45美元，综合来看操作上金慧建议逢高做空。


Operation suggestions
此波反弹密切关注47.2-47.5美元的压力，压力位不破大胆进场空单！目标看到45USD!
建议现价46.9美元轻仓短多，目标看到47.2dollar


epilogue

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