Crossing the Sea 2016year10month28day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month28day

Focus this week:
10month31day(Monday)
U.S.A9Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A9Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A9月经调整后的个人支出月率
U.S.A9monthPCEprice index
U.S.A10Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A10月达拉斯联储德州制造业活动指数

11month1day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean
U.S.A10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A9Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A10monthISMManufacturing Index
U.S.A10monthISMInput price sub index

11month2day(Wednesday)
U.S.A10monthADPChanges in private employment positions

11month3day(Thursday)
美联储联邦基金利率
U.S.A10monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
美国第三季单位劳工成本初值
美国第三季非农业生产率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industry‧comprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A9Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A10monthISMNon manufacturing index

11month4day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly employment data
U.S.A9Monthly International Trade Balance



Important economic data released today:      
17：00 eurozone10Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧forecast0.44‧Previous value0.45
17：00 eurozone10Monthly Economic Prosperity Index‧forecast104.8‧Previous value104.9
20：00 Germany10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：00 Germany10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.8%‧Previous value+0.7%
20：00 Germany10Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Front value remains unchanged
20：00 Germany10Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+0.5%
20：30 US Q3 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Initial value of month on month annual rate‧forecast+2.5%‧Previous value+1.4%
20：30 US Q3 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)最终销售初值‧forecast+2.5%‧Previous value+2.6%
20：30 US Q3 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)消费者支出初值‧Previous value+4.3%
20：30 US Q3 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)平减指数初值‧forecast+1.3%‧Previous value+2.3%
20：30 Third quarter core personal consumption expenditure in the United States(PCE)物价指数初值‧forecast+1.6%‧Previous value+1.8%
20：30 Third quarter personal consumption expenditure in the United States(PCE)物价指数初值‧forecast+1.4%‧Previous value+2.0%
20：30 美国第三季薪资‧Previous value+0.6%
20：30 美国第三季雇佣成本指数‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+0.6%
22：00 U.S.A10月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值‧forecast88.1‧Previous value87.9
22：00 U.S.A10月密西根大学现况指数终值‧forecast105.5‧Previous value105.5
22：00 U.S.A10月密西根大学预期指数终值‧forecast77.0‧Previous value76.6



News of the Week

U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe initial value is53.2, for2015year10The highest since the beginning of the month
FHFA: USA8Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.7%, up from the same period last year6.4%
U.S.A10The monthly consumer confidence index has decreased98.6
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank10The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is negative4
U.S.A9月新屋销售较前月上升3.1%to59.3万户，接近九年高位
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIThe initial value is54.8, creating2015year11The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A9月商品贸易逆差初值为560.8USD100mn
U.S.A9月耐久财订单较前月下降0.1%
美国一周初请失业金人数为25.8ten thousand people
U.S.A9月成屋待完成销售指数反弹
U.S.A9Revised monthly building permit annual rate to122.510000 households



10month27day
LondongoldMorning order price:1269.30
London gold afternoon fixing price:1266.25



Today's Introduction

周四公布数据显示，美国资本财新订单在9月份意外下降，计算机及电子产品需求疲弱。这可能削弱关于企业支出在第四季加速的预期。尽管制造业因能源领域的拖累而长期低迷，但美国经济中的其它产业情况较好。周四公布的其它报告显示，上周初请失业金人数下降，9月成屋待完成销售指数反弹。

下周美联储将召开货币政策会议，美国大选结果亦将揭盎。市场在此之前表现谨慎。据彭博报导，从股票、金属，到债券，全球市场波动率降至两年以来的最低水准。美元指数自10Month high99.12回落，并回到98关口上方交投。近日欧洲央行行长和英国央行行长的讲话降低了市场对其进一步宽松预期，触发美元多头获利了结。在美国方面，根据CME GroupofFedWatch，交易商周三预计美联储12月升息机率约为74%，周二为逾78%。目前，市场关注的焦点是周五即将公布的美国第三季GDP初值资料。随着下周美国就业报告公布、以及11月初美国总统大选，美元料将呈现区间波动。



XAU London Gold - 节日需求支撑金价

近来表现强劲的美国数据已提高了美国提前升息的可能性，这令金价承压，未能稳企于1270水平上方。如果今晚公布的美国gross domestic product(GDP) 数据强劲，则可能会推低金价。CME GroupofFedWatch显示，美国利率futures暗示，美联储在12月升息的可能性超过78%。另外，印度本月底将庆祝印度教最重要的两个节日，即财神节(Dhanteras)和排灯节(Diwali) ，黄金通常在这两个节日期间作为礼物赠送。

技术图表所见，在1250Near the level, a good technical bottom has been temporarily established, and the short-term gold price is expected to develop steadily. Currently, it is relatively close to resistance reference1277and1285USD, next level material is1301。下方支持见于1267and1252USD, further estimated as250Balance moving average1231USD.

London Gold10month28day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1267 – 1277
Resistance level:1285 – 1301
Support bit:1252 – 1235

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton
10month17Day - 967.21ton
10month18Day - 967.21ton
10month19Day - 967.21ton
10month20Day - 970.17ton
10month21Day - 953.56ton
10month24Day - 953.56ton
10month25Day - 956.83ton
10month26Day - 942.59ton
10month27Day - 942.59ton


12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month28day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month22day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价窄幅争持，酝酿突破行情

In terms of silver in London, the trend of silver in the past two weeks has been extremely narrow, with a range of fluctuations17.28to17.88, amplitude only60Remaining points. And below, there is a more obvious technical support200Balance moving average, currently located at17.39Horizontal. In the current situation of sideways trading, it is believed that once the level is broken, the silver trend will also usher in a unilateral trend. If it falls below the above technical support level, the extended lower trial level will be seen17.10and16.70Horizontal; On the contrary, if there is a definite breakthrough upwards17.90US dollars, silver prices are expected to further rise18.10To the extent that18.60The US dollar is facing significant resistance19.00Horizontal.

London Silver10month28day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.50 – 18.10
Resistance level:18.60 – 19.00
Support bit:17.10 – 16.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton
10month17Day - 11268.35ton
10month18Day - 11268.35ton
10month19Day - 11294.92ton
10month20Day - 11294.92ton
10month21Day - 11395.28ton
10month24Day - 11395.28ton
10month25Day - 11395.28ton
10month26Day - 11395.28ton
10month27Day - 11218.19ton



EUR euro - 呈技术反弹，中线维持弱势

European Central Bank(ECB) 执委会成员穆尔许表示，欧洲央行超宽松货币政策的效果或将随着时间递减，银行业放贷的某些趋势已需要更密切的关注。穆尔许表示，该行负利率的副作用会随着时间而升高，欧洲央行在检讨购债计划要持续多久时，有必要评估其成本。穆尔许被视为欧洲央行管理委员会中的温和鹰派。

欧元兑美元自月初以来持续走弱，至本周二跌至1.0848，创三月份以来最低水平。然而，周三欧元出现显著反弹，回返至1.09水平，在之前三个交易日均未可明确跌穿1.0850水平，促使了欧元作出技术性修正。鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数亦自超卖区域回升，可望短期欧元尚有进一步反弹空间，首个阻力应先指向1.10关口，至于上至250Balance moving average1.11水平应会面对较严峻阻力。另外，亦要留意，从中期走势而言，欧元兑美元尚处弱势发展。周线图所见，汇价已跌破由年初起始之上升趋向线支撑，而10周平均线跌破25周平均线，亦示意着欧元的下跌趋势，估计中线重要支撑区域将是1.0450to1.05。

Focus:
10month31day(one): Germany9Monthly actual retail sales‧欧元区第三季GDPinitial value‧eurozone10monthHICPinitial value‧Italy10monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value‧Italy9monthPPI
11month2day(three): Italy10monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany10monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧Changes in the number of unemployed individuals‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧eurozone10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
11month3day(four): Italy9Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone9Monthly unemployment rate
11month4day(five): Italy10monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany10monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧eurozone10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone9monthPPI

Related news
France10月消费者信心指数由前月97Ascend to98
Germany11monthGFKConsumer confidence index has decreased9.7, for4Monthly low point
Germany9Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.1%, down from the same period last year1.8%
France10monthHICP初值与前月持平，较上年同期上涨0.5%
France9月生产者物价较前月上升0.1%, down from the same period last year1.7%
France Season 3GDPInitial value increased compared to the previous quarter0.2%

德拉吉称该央行已经意识到超低利率政策的代价上升
消息指欧洲央行几乎可以肯定明年3月后会继续购债，放宽QE规定
欧洲央行执委会成员穆尔许称，该央行超宽松货币政策效果或随时间递减

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1000 – 1.1100 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.0850 – 1.0500* – 1.0450*



JPY yen - 央行下周料维持政策不变

路透调查周五显示，预期日本央行下周将维持负利率以及10年期日本公债收益率目标不变。受访的15位分析师认为，日本央行料仍维持金融机构存放在央行部分超额准备金实施的负0.1%的利率。分析师预计日本央行将保持10年期公债收益率目标在零水准附近不变。调查还显示，分析师预期日本央行仍会保持每年约80万亿日圆的凈购债规模。

Japan9Monthly National CoreConsumer Price Index(CPI) 连续第七个月下降，而且家庭支出下滑，支持日本央行关于通胀率需要一些时间才会升向2%的看法。这意味着，日本央行下周会议可能暂缓扩大刺激，不过料下调物价预估，最新预估可能显示央行总裁黑田东彦在2018年任期结束前不会看到通胀率达到2%. Japan9Monthly National CoreCPIDecline compared to the same period last year0.5%, in line with the median market estimate.9月扣除食品和能源价格的“核心-coreCPI”与上年同期持平，显示通胀连续第三个月放缓，受累于支出疲弱以及强势日圆对进口物价产生的下行压力。9月家庭支出同比下降2.1%，为连续第七个月下降。同时另一份数据显示，失业率降至3.0%。

美元兑日圆周四走高，美国公债收益率上升以及对美国联邦储备理事会(FED)年内升息的预期给美元带来支撑。美国10年期公债收益率于周四亚洲盘中升至1.813%，逼近本月所创的五个月高点1.814%。美元兑日圆则最高升见104.75，逼近周二高位104.87。

技术图表所见，美元兑日圆在过去两周处于盘整阶段，估计105关口若果仍然未可突破，则短期或会面临回调风险，尤其相对强弱指标及随机指数已进入超买区域，更为深化回跌压力。估计下试支持看至104and100Balance moving average102.90The next level material is101.50。另一边厢，倘若可向上突破105关口，则美元兑日圆有机会再开展新一轮涨势，下一级关键则在200Balance moving average107.30，留意美元兑日圆7month21日触及的高位在107.47，这更显得此区的重要性，进一步将看至108To the extent that110Gateway.

Focus:
10month31day(one): Japan9Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧零售销售年率‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率
11month1day(two)：日本央行利率决定‧日本央行基础货币目标‧Japan10Month Day Meridian/MarkitmanufacturingPMI
11month2day(three): Japan10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
11month3day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Related news
月报：日本政府九个月来首上调工业产出评估，称经济仍温和复苏

Japan9Monthly National CoreCPIDecline compared to the same period last year0.5%
Japan9Monthly household expenses decreased compared to the same period last year2.1%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.30 – 108.00 – 110.00
support 104.00 – 102.90 – 101.50



GBP pound - 盘整待变，慎防反扑风险

图表走势所见，经过前期大幅下跌后，上周英镑处于窄幅盘整，同时，5Tianhe10天平均线正呈黄金交叉，估计若汇价仍然未有进一步破底的情况下，将面临大举反扑的风险。阻力先探上周高位1.2329，可升破此区，则初步完成筑底形态，进一步攀升目标料为1.25and1.2630水平。支持位预估在1.2080and1.20Gateway.

Focus:
10month31day(one): UK9Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
11month1day(two): UK10monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
11month2day(three): UK10monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
11month3day(four): UK10monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI‧britain11Monthly central bank interest rate decision‧Scale of quantitative easing‧MPCVoting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)

Related news
britain10月工业订单差值从9The negative of the month5Reduce to negative17, creating2New low since September

英国央行总裁卡尼称不能无视英镑“相当明显的”下跌

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2329 – 1.2500 – 1.2630
support 1.2080 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

Swiss think tankKOFAnnounced on Friday, Switzerland10monthKOF领先成长指标为104.7, higher than Reuters survey estimates101.8。9monthKOF领先成长指标修正为101.6, initial value is101.3。该数据反映瑞士经济在未来六个月左右的预期表现。

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
瑞士央行总裁乔丹称必要时可能进一步下调负利率，直升机撒钱非瑞士央行的政策工具

Switzerland9月消费指数从前月的1.53Ascend to1.59
Switzerland10monthKOF领先成长指标为104.7

Focus:
11month1day(two)Switzerland9Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland10Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
11month3day(four)：瑞士第四季消费者信心指数        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 强势美元打压澳元走势

澳元周五触及两周低点，料连续第二周周线下跌，因美元在美国公布第三季GDP数据前走强。澳元一度触及10month14Daily low point0.7565美元。澳元周三最高涨至0.7709美元，但在这个水平再次回落，这已经是自9月以来在关键的0.77阻力位第五次失去动能。

周三公布的数据显示，澳洲通胀率略高于市场预估，但澳洲央行关注的基础通胀指标，大致符合预期。利率期货市场反映出，澳洲央行11month1日会议降息的机率几近为零。澳元亦受到美元走强打压；美国公债收益率跟随德债及英债走势，升至约五个月高点，推升美元。

技术图表所见，较近阻力见于0.7720，下一级目标料为0.78To the extent that200Monthly average line0.79水平。支持位回看100Balance moving average0.7560And the upward trend line0.7520，跌破此区将见澳元重回弱势发展，延伸目标看至0.7410of250天平均线位置。

Related news
Australia Season 3CPIUp from the previous quarter0.7%, up from the same period last year1.3%
Australia Season 3CPI截尾均值较前季上升0.4%
澳洲第三季出口物价较前季上升3.5%，进口物价下滑1.0%
澳洲第三季生产者物价指数(PPI)Increase compared to the same period last year0.5%,较上季上升0.3%

Focus:
10month31day(one): Australia9月民间部门信贷‧Housing credit
11month1day(two): Australia10monthAIGManufacturing Index‧Australia11Monthly central bank interest rate decision
11month2day(three): Australia9Monthly Building Permit‧Civil Residential Building Permit
11month3day(four): Australia10monthAIGService Industry Index‧Australia9月商品及服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
11month4day(five): Australia9Monthly retail sales rate‧澳洲第三季零售贸易

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7720 – 0.7800 – 0.7900
support 0.7560 – 0.7520 – 0.7410



NZD New Zealand dollars - 维持弱势下行

技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25The Tianping moving average indicates that the New Zealand dollar still sees weak development against the US dollar in the medium term, and downward estimates will be tested first0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6890To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7190and50Balance moving average0.7250Horizontal.

Related news
New Zealand9The monthly trade deficit is14.4Billions of New Zealand dollars
New Zealand as of9月的一年贸易逆差为34Billions of New Zealand dollars

Focus:
10month31day(one): New Zealand10monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
11month2day(three)New Zealand Season 3HLFSunemployment rate‧HLFSQuarterly employment growth rate‧HLFSEmployment participation rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7190 – 0.7250
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at1.3350and1.34水平，下一级见于1.35。

Focus:
10month31day(one): Canada9月工业产品价格‧原材料价格‧
11month1day(two): Canada8monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada10monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
11month4day(five): Canada10Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧Ivey PMI‧Canada9Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import

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Canada8Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3350 – 1.3400 – 1.3500
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500

CLZ 12Monthly oil - 市场对减产计划存疑，油价升幅受制

据熟悉情况的人士向路透透露，石油输出国组织(OPEC)海湾国家成员国能源部长本周告诉俄罗斯能源部长，沙特和海湾国家愿意将石油产量从峰值减少4%。上述消息人士称，周日在利雅德召开的能源部长闭门会议上提出了上述动议，但俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克告诉这些官员，俄罗斯不会减产，但可以把产量冻结在当前水平。三位OPEC消息人士称，一个普遍的共识是只有利比亚、尼日利亚和伊朗应排除在协议之外，因这三个国家的产量曾受到战乱和制裁的打击。

As seen in the chart trend, currently25The balance moving average is at49.20，若见油价明确跌破，料将维持回吐走势，下方较大支撑见于47.50and46.50水平。预估上方阻力在50and52USD.




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)