董香惜：晚间EIA数据消息面数据是否利空？

董香惜：晚间EIA数据消息面数据是否利空？

Preface:

　　“动产”与“减产”争议由来已久，虽然多数主要产油国均曾支持限产，但是其内部立场分歧依然巨大。其中，俄罗斯驻欧佩克特使Vladimir Voronkov在回答有关欧佩克减产共识的问题时表示，俄罗斯反对削减石油产量，这对俄罗斯来说不是一个选项，将产量冻结在目前水平对俄罗斯来说是一个更可取的选择。此外，委内瑞拉油长皮诺似乎也证实了“不减产”，称“冻产”协议可能只是暂时的。详情请咨询董香惜V-Challenge:dxx904

　　市场利空消息面

　　北京时间周三凌晨，美国石油协会(API)According to the published data, as of10month21Day of the Week, USAAPIcrude oil库存大增475Ten thousand barrels, previously expected to increase80Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is a decrease378.8Ten thousand barrels.API原油库存数据公布后，美油布油双双下跌逾2[%]。

Specific data display, as of10month21Day of the Week, USAAPIIncrease in gasoline inventory175Ten thousand barrels, previously expected to decrease13010000 barrels;精炼油库存则减少94Ten thousand barrels, expected decrease136.710000 barrels;库欣地区原油库存减少225.610000 barrels, both previous and expected decreases195.5Ten thousand barrels.

Zero Hedge Review on Famous Financial BlogsAPI原油库存数据称，API原油库存意外大增近480万桶，令WTI油价跌幅扩大至逾2[%], refresh3Weekly low point;汽油库存也意外增加17510000 barrels;尽管库欣原油库存录得减少，创2014year2月以来最大降幅，但这或是因原油泄漏所致。

　　伊拉克官方公布数据显示，该国9The monthly crude oil production is477.410000 barrels/日，预计将于10月继续攀升。而OPEC统计的二手数据显示，伊拉克9The monthly crude oil production is445.510000 barrels/Day.

International Energy Agency(IEA)署长比罗尔(Fatih Birol)表示，尽管中国的石油消费量有望增长，但预计2017年全球石油需求增幅将仅为12010000 barrels/日，需求增长的放缓可能意味着在明年下半年以前，国际油市无法达到供需再平衡。他亦对OPEC减产计划的成效表示质疑，因OPEC减产可能导致其他地区增产，进一步破坏油市的再平衡进程。V-Challenge:dxx904

　　比罗尔说：“如果(OPEC主导的)干预行动导致油价上涨，高成本石油生产商很可能作出反应。60dollar/桶的油价可能促使美国页岩油和拉丁美洲近海项目重新开工。”

　　不过他认为，雨季的结束、冬天的来临以及节庆高峰期推动的工业需求将在未来几月带动印度的石油需求，即使油价上涨也不会减少需求。

　　EIA前期回顾观点：

　　数据显示，美国10month14Day and WeekEIAReduction in crude oil inventory524.7Ten thousand barrels, gasoline inventory increases246.910000 barrels, reduced inventory of refined oil124万桶。据调查显示，美国上周原油库存料将增加，截至10month21US crude oil inventory expected to increase this week80Ten thousand barrels, gasoline inventory will decrease13010000 barrels, while refined oil storage will decrease140Ten thousand barrels.EIA库存利空概率较大，若符合预期，原油价格或已半只脚踏入熊市，下方关注48.50支撑位，若再度被跌穿，油价熊市将坐实。

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