Crossing the Sea 2016year10month17day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month17day

Focus this week:
10month17day(Monday)
U.S.A10New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A9Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A9Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A9Monthly manufacturing output rate

10month18day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
U.S.A9Monthly average real income monthly rate
United States10monthNAHBHousing market index
U.S.A9Cleveland Federal ReserveCPI

10month19day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly overall capital flow
U.S.A8Monthly foreign investment purchasing US government bonds
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index
Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A9Monthly housing construction starts

10month20day(Thursday)
U.S.A10Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A9Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A9Monthly leading indicator monthly rate



Important economic data released today:
07：00 Japan10Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index‧Front value positive5
12：30 Japan8Monthly industrial production revision‧Previous value+1.5%
12：30 Japan8月产能利用率指数月率‧Previous value+0.6%
16：00 Italy8Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Previous value29.07Yiyi surplus
16：00 Italy8Monthly Global Trade Balance‧Previous value77.95Yiyi surplus
17：00 eurozone9Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Monthly rate final value‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.1%
17：00 eurozone9Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate final value‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.4%
17：00 eurozone9Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPMonthly rate final value‧Previous value+0.2%
17：00 eurozone9Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPAnnual rate final value‧forecast+0.8%‧Previous value+0.8%
20：30 U.S.A10New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month‧forecast1.00‧Negative front value1.99
21：15 U.S.A9Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value-0.4%
21：15 U.S.A9Monthly capacity utilization rate‧forecast75.6%‧Previous value75.5%
21：15 U.S.A9Monthly manufacturing output rate‧Previous value-0.4%



10month14day
LondongoldMorning order price:1256.15
London gold afternoon fixing price:1251.75



XAU London Gold - 升息预期支撑美元，金价走势持续低迷

美联储升息预期的升温，令美元上周持续走升，金价则维持承压，并录得连续第三周下跌。周五美联储主席耶伦发表讲话，全面检讨了美国经济仍未能完全复苏的原因所在。耶伦表示，美联储可能需要实施高压政策，才能使经济从危机中复苏。另外，波士顿联储主席罗森格伦表示，投资者预期12月升息的机率“很高”可能是正确的。至于Federal Open Market Committee of the United States(FOMC) 周三发布的9月会议纪要显示，如美国经济持续走强，几位有投票权的决策者认为利率应该会在“相对较短时间内”上升。不过，在对于升息前要等多久，以便让就业市场和通胀进一步改善的问题上，美联储内部仍存在很大分歧。9月会议纪要表明，当月美联储会议维持利率不变的决定可谓“势均力敌”，其中有三名委员投票要求加息。会议纪要后，美联储年底加息概率攀升至68%, higher than a month ago60%，较一周前也上升6Percentage points.

As shown in the technical chart, the gold price is currently relatively close to the resistance reference1267and1276USD, next level material is1289. However, as the bottom of the triangle has fallen, there is still a risk of a decline in gold prices. The following support can be found in1240and1233USD, further estimated as250Balance moving average1226USD, gold price from2Monthly rise and fall250The antenna continues to rise, so if the future falls short of this area, or there is a signal that gold prices will usher in another round of decline, the key will be to1200The US dollar barrier.

下一轮央行政策会议是市场讨论焦点。本周欧洲央行、加拿大央行将召开会议并公布利率决议。美联储将发布经济状况褐皮书、澳洲央行将公布10月会议记录。美联储多位官员、日本央行总裁黑田东彦将发表讲话。中国三季度国内生产总值(GDP)，美国、欧元区以及英国9月通胀数据亦将发布。投资者可从中寻找交易线索。

London Gold10month17 – 21Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1254 – 1271 – 1280 – 1290
Support bit:1240 – 1226 – 1216 – 1201

London Gold10month17day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1238 – 1264
Resistance level:1277 – 1291
Support bit:1226 – 1216

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton
9month23Day - 951.22ton
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton
10month14Day - 965.43ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Breaking the Triangle and Extending Weakness under Silver Prices

In terms of London silver, in the past two months, the overall fluctuation of silver prices has gradually narrowed and formed a triangular pattern. As the silver price falls below at the beginning of the month, it is expected to maintain a weak development. The estimated lower extension support is200Balance moving average17.20as well as16.80USD, next level material is16The US dollar barrier. Upward resistance can be referenced17.90and18.20USD, reference for significant resistance18.60USD.

London Silver10month17 – 21Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.70 – 18.10 – 18.60 – 19.10
Support bit:17.00 – 16.80 – 16.30 – 16.00

London Silver10month17day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.00 – 17.80
Resistance level:18.10 – 18.60
Support bit:16.70 – 16.30

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton
9month30Day - 11270.04ton
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton
10month14Day - 11268.35ton



EUR euro - Exploring the Beauty Finger98Pass, non US maintains pressure

上周公布的美联储9月会议纪要巩固了外界对12月政策会议的升息预期，市场预计届时的升息机率达70%，美元维持走强。美联储周四凌晨公布的会议纪要显示，多名委员认为如果劳动力市场持续好转、经济活动加强，那么“相对较快”加息是合适的。受此影响，美元指数一度扩大涨幅至98.13, refresh7个月新高，周五尾盘维持于98水平。迎来本周，欧洲央行及加拿大央行将公布利率决议，美联储则将发布经济状况褐皮书、美联储多位官员将发表讲话。此外，中国三季度国内生产总值(GDP)，美国、欧元区以及英国9月通胀数据将出炉。

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range and entering the end region of the triangular pattern, it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market will be launched in the short term. The top of the triangle is located at1.1260At the bottom, see1.1140，欧元兑美元周五滑落至1.10Below the horizontal level, it has initially broken through the triangular pattern; In addition,1.11Also250The balance moving average position is expected to see a wave of decline in the euro, which will further lead to1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal. The upper resistance is estimated to be50Balance moving average1.12Horizontal.

Focus:
10month17day(one): Italy8Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧eurozone9monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value
10month18day(two): Germany9monthPPI‧eurozone8Monthly current account‧direct investment/Net liquidity of securities investment‧Europe10Monthly central bank refinancing rate‧Deposit interest rate
10month21day(five): Eurozone10Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.1000 – 1.0900 – 1.0700



JPY yen - Policy Differences between the United States and Japan, Weak Development of the Japanese yen

In terms of technical trend, the US dollar has been rising against the Japanese yen for several days, and the significant increase last Tuesday has even broken through the top of the triangular pattern formed in the past three months. After the pattern breaks through, it indicates that the exchange rate still has a tendency to further rise, and the target can be seen first105Gateway. In addition, at the beginning of this year, the high point reached6month24Daily low99.08Calculate the cumulative decline of,38.2%Rebound level107.70Expand to50%Then it is110.40. as for200Balance moving average108.10It can also serve as another basis for resistance. The closest supporting material is102.30, with significant support estimated at50Balance moving average101.80and100Pass, please pay attention9In the second half of the month, the exchange rate made repeated attempts, but remained stable100Therefore, it will be regarded as a key support level for the mid-term trend.

Focus:
10month17day(one): Japan10Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index‧Japan8Monthly industrial production revision‧Capacity utilization index monthly rate
10month20day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.70 – 108.40 – 110.40
support 102.30 – 101.60 – 100.00



GBP pound - 脱欧疑虑英镑挫跌

As can be seen from the chart, the GBP/USD has fallen below the starting point of this month1.30关口以后，持续处于下行走势。若计算由七月至今的双底型态，以8month16Daily low1.2872为颈线参考，双顶幅度570点，延伸下行目标为1.22To the extent that1.20关口。上方阻力预估在1.2500and1.2620The next level material is1.2830Horizontal.

Focus:
10month18day(two): UK9monthCPI‧coreCPI‧RPI‧扣除抵押贷款的RPI&#8231PIInput price&#8231PIOutput price&#8231PI核心产出物价
10month19day(three): UK9Annual rate of monthly average weekly salary income‧Monthly rate of people claiming unemployment benefits‧UK as of8According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate
10month20day(four): UK9Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy%
10month21day(five): UK9Monthly deduction of net public sector loans from state-owned banks‧Public sector net borrowing(PSNB)‧Shortfall in revenue and expenditure in the public sector(PSNCR)

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2620 – 1.2800
support 1.2200 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
10month20day(four)Switzerland9Monthly trade balance(Swiss franc)‧Previous value30.25Yiyi surplus

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 跌破近期区间

As shown in the technical chart, AUD/USD8month11Daily high0.7760，9month8Daily high0.7732，9month29Daily high0.7711Despite the gradual decline in high levels, it is expected that the Australian dollar will still see room for adjustment in the short term. Calculated from the cumulative increase from the low point in May to the high point in August,50%The callback amplitude is0.7450The low point reached in September also happened to stop in this area. If it expands to61.8%Will reach0.7380Horizontal, this position is also250The location of the balance moving average; If it breaks further, there is a chance to try again5month24Daily low0.7145. The upper resistance is seen in25Balance moving average0.7590and0.7650，较大阻力预估为0.77Horizontal.

Focus:
10month17day(one): Australia9Monthly sales of new cars‧Previous value+0.1%
10month20day(four): Australia9Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7590 – 0.7650 – 0.7700
support 0.7450 – 0.7380* – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - 降息预期抑制纽元

纽元兑美元方面，技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25天平均线，同时，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦见持续下滑，预示纽元仍存有下跌空间。向下预估会先试探0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6885To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7150and50Balance moving average0.7260Horizontal.

Focus:
10month18day(two)New Zealand Season 3CPI‧New Zealand9月公债海外持有比例

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7170 – 0.7260 – 0.7320
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
10month18day(two): Canada8Monthly manufacturing sales rate
10month19day(three)Bank of Canada Interest Rate Resolution
10month21day(five): Canada9monthCPIMonthly rate‧Central Bank CoreCPI‧Canada8Monthly retail sales‧Deduction of retail sales of automobiles

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)