Yin Haochen: Expectations of interest rate hikes strengthen the difficulty of gold and silver transactions crude oil50Multiple empty saws at the entrance

Beijing Thursday(10month13day)In the early morning, the Federal Reserve announced9The monthly meeting minutes show that several members hope to raise interest rates, several members hope to wait, and several members believe that interest rates will be raised soon; Several committee members believe that the risk still leans towards the downside; Opinions on the labor market vary, and many members believe that there is still some weakness in the labor market; Federal Reserve officials are expected to raise interest rates relatively soon;9The month's decision to wait is a balanced decision; Some voting committee members believe that a cautious interest rate hike will help revive the job market; A small number of voting committee members are concerned about the statement in the resolution regarding the "current" delay in interest rate hikes.
　　
Although the Federal Reserve9The monthly minutes fell short of expectations of hawks, but the market still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates within the year. The US presidential election may become an untimely bomb for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but the minutes of this meeting did not mention the election issue, which fully demonstrates the Fed's consistent principle of maintaining policy independence.
　　
Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen stated in his speech on Friday that during the economic recovery cycle, ultra loose policies may be needed, and interest rates may remain low for a period of time. The relationship between the labor market and inflation seems to be weakening. During the recovery cycle, policies seem to remain ultra loose; More clear guidance may be needed, as interest rates may remain low for a period of time, and once the economy relapses into a recession, low interest rates alone may not be sufficient to stimulate growth, and simply cutting short-term interest rates is not appropriate.
　　
　  According to data released by Baker Hughes, the United Statescrude oilIncrease in the number of drilling platforms4Mouth432The mouth has continuously increased since then16Week, and in the past20During the week, crude oil drilling in the United States18Weekly recording has increased. Due to the recent stabilization of oil prices, andOPECFinally, an agreement was reached on the target range of oil production at the informal oil conference in Algeria, which made US shale oil producers eager to try and continue to increase the number of active oil drilling. It is expected that further increases in oil prices will accelerate the recovery pace of US shale oil drilling data.
　　


Last week's market review:
　　
The prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the year is affecting the nerves of the entire market. Although the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that officials still have differences on the timing of rate hikes, the overall good performance of US data and Fed officials' interest rate hikes have helped revive the momentum of the US dollar index, rising to a seven month high. SpotgoldAfter experiencing the previous sharp decline, the market adjusted and the decline in gold prices was temporarily postponed. And due to the Russian side's readiness to acceptOPECThe freeze production agreement reached by the parties has led to a jump in oil prices3%Reaching a one-year high, but output remains severe, and there are still doubts about whether oil prices can rise in the future.
　　
Technical analysis of crude oil:
　　
The expected response of oil prices to production freezes or restrictions is relatively obvious, but the author does not believe that production freezes or restrictions can cause a significant contraction in actual supply, and many details are still unclear. There are also differences among oil producing countries, which only play a role in stabilizing the supply pattern. If the final agreement cannot be reached, the impact on the oil market will only be emotional suppression, and the production elasticity of Nigeria and Libya, which are currently limited in production, remains a key factor affecting oil prices.

　　

From last week, it can be seen that the oil price has been around50The competition for the integer level of the US dollar has intensified bullish and bearish sentiment. From the current perspective, I believe that $50 is still a key position; There has been no actual action on frozen production in the past few days since the "agreement" was reached, and the empty mouth contract has deepened the market's doubts about frozen production. From a daily perspective, the short-term moving average has leveled off,MACDDouble track high level remains flat,KDJPersistent dead cross downward, with a severe shortage of bearish strength; Four hour online,MA5/MA10Moving average at50.44The US dollar intersects with a dead cross and moves downwards, while the upward force is affected5/10/20Daily moving average suppression,MACDIndicator on0Near the axis, there is a dead cross operation, and the green volume is weak in terms of volume. The long trend has consumed the strong decline of last Friday and rebounded again after falling below $5050.3Nearby; Overall, the author believes that today's crude oil is still mainly volatile, and the long to short conversion takes time. The above focus is on51.6Pressure level, pay attention below49.0In terms of support and operation, Yin Haochen's personal suggestion is to focus on short selling and be cautious in pursuing long positions. The author provides a firm offer for the medium to long term, and50The long and short tug of war around the US dollar has already begun, and the real-time strategy is mainly based on the author's Yin Haochen's actual offer strategy,Author official account Yin Haochen, prestige:yhc1340。
　　
Crude oil operation strategy:
　　
Strategy 1: Above50.5Short selling and stop loss available nearby0.4, Objective49.8；
　　
Strategy 2: Below49.70Can do more nearby, stop loss0.4, Objective50.4；
　　
Silver Technology Analysis:
　　
Silver, the current position is rising this year50[%]Because the form is the same as gold, which is equivalent to weekly suppression and also falls during the National Day period, there is still some room for adjustment in the future, and gold falls1215So silver falls to16.5The central line will be laid out in this area, while paper and silver will be laid out in this area16.5-17The region is full of positions and has entered. Last week, silver was as weak as gold in volatility. However, at the beginning of the week, the rebound of silver exceeded the non agricultural high point, so this week silver will be empty, but it may not be easy to break through the previous low17.06Position, take advantage of the trend to short on Monday, pay attention to the front low17.1The support on the front line may rebound in the short term, so pay more attention to the trend of gold. Silver has been fluctuating less recently, and the direction of fluctuations has not been so clear. The above views are my personal views and are for reference only;
　　
Silver operation strategy:
　　
Strategy 1: Upward rebound17.6Short selling, stop loss17.75Target Look17.2-17.1；
　　
Strategy 2: Radicals can be found in the Asian market17.4Near empty, stop loss17.6Target Look17.1-17.0
　　
When the market is high, some people cry, some laugh, and some cry for their own misfortune. Why is it unfortunate for others? Because you have never been able to get on the right path of investment, you have been searching for the best and most suitable teacher for you, but you can never find it. At this time, you will be angry at your bad luck and complain about how you are so unlucky. However, you should remember that the darkness before dawn is the most difficult to endure. When you feel like you are about to give up, it is often a turning point, and life is like this, Good luck always favors those who persevere. Everyone makes investments. Why do some people thrive while others are confused and unsure how to lose? That's the truth. Investment relies on wisdom, financial management relies on professionalism, resolving conflicts relies on attitude, judgment comes from observation, and more importantly, from professionalism.