Crossing the Sea 2016year10month14day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month14day

Focus this week:
10month14day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly federal budget
U.S.A9monthPPI
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A8Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A10月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值

10month17day(Monday)
U.S.A10New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A9Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A9Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A9Monthly manufacturing output rate

10month18day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9Monthly consumer price index(CPI)
U.S.A9Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)
U.S.A9Monthly average real income monthly rate
United States10monthNAHBHousing market index
U.S.A9Cleveland Federal ReserveCPI

10month19day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly overall capital flow
U.S.A8Monthly foreign investment purchasing US government bonds
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAHousing Loan Application Index
Last week in the United StatesMBA30Annual mortgage interest rate
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A9Monthly housing construction starts

10month20day(Thursday)
U.S.A10Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A9Monthly leading indicator monthly rate



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Italy9Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate final value‧forecast-0.2%‧Previous value-0.2%
17：00 Italy9Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate final value‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.1%
17：00 Italy9Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Monthly rate final value‧forecast+1.9%‧Previous value+1.9%
17：00 Italy9Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate final value‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.1%
16：30 britain8月建筑业产出月率‧forecast+0.2%‧Front value remains unchanged
16：30 britain8月建筑业产出年率‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value-1.5%
17：00 eurozone8Trade balance without seasonal adjustment on a monthly basis‧forecast153Yiyi surplus‧Previous value253Yiyi surplus
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧forecast+0.6%‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIthe annual rate‧forecast+1.2%‧Previous value+1.0%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIthe annual rate‧Previous value+1.2%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIMonthly rate‧Previous value+0.3%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value-0.3%
20：30 U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value-0.1%
22：00 U.S.A8Monthly commercial inventory rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Front value remains unchanged
22：00 U.S.A10月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值‧forecast91.9‧Previous value91.2
22：00 U.S.A10月密西根大学现况指数‧forecast104.7‧Previous value104.2
22：00 U.S.A10月密西根大学预期指数‧forecast82.7‧Previous value82.7

10month14day (Saturday)
01：30 美联储主席耶伦发表演说



News of the Week

Tuesday/芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯称，美国12月如加息，不会感到意外
沙特能源部长乐观认为，下月OPEC会议或可达成全球限产协议
三星电子宣布将在全球停止销售和更换Galaxy Note7mobile phone

China9月以人民币计价出口同比下降5.6%
China9月以人民币计价进口同比增长2.2%
China9Monthly trade surplus2783.50RMB 100 million
China9Monthly trade surplus419.89USD100mn
China9月以美元计价出口同比下降10.0%，进口同比下降1.9%


10month13day
LondongoldMorning order price:1258.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1261.05



Today's Introduction

China9monthCPIandPPI同比双升

China9monthCPI同比涨幅回升且高于预期，PPI同比则终结连续54个月下降态势，四年半来首度转正。双升的CPIandPPI毫无疑问将有助于缓解市场对中国经济陷入通缩的疑虑。分析人士指出，而整体通胀虽然回升但仍在温和可控范围，货币政策料继续保持稳健。9monthPPIYear-on-year increase0.1%，结束四年半的下跌时代；9monthCPIYear-on-year increase1.9%Higher than expected.

投资者等待美联储主席耶伦周五晚讲话，但这料不会影响升息预期。未来一周欧洲央行、加拿大央行将公布利率决议。美联储将发布经济状况褐皮书、美联储多位官员将发表讲话。此外，中国三季度国内生产总值(GDP)，美国、欧元区以及英国9月通胀数据将出炉。



XAU London Gold - 金价三角破底

The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust 周四黄金持仓量较周三增加0.28%，同期全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust 的白银持仓量则持平。

伦敦黄金周五微跌，因股市上涨，且美联储年底前可能升息的预期提振美元。市场下一个关注焦点是周五的美国零售销售数据以及美联储主席叶伦的讲话，波士顿联邦储备银行总裁罗森格伦也将发表演说。

下一轮央行政策会议是市场讨论焦点。下周欧洲央行、加拿大央行将召开会议并公布利率决议。美联储将发布经济状况褐皮书、澳洲央行将公布10月会议记录。美联储多位官员、日本央行总裁黑田东彦将发表讲话。中国三季度国内生产总值(GDP)，美国、欧元区以及英国9月通胀数据将出炉。投资者可从中寻找交易线索。

As shown in the technical chart, the gold price is currently relatively close to the resistance reference1267and1276USD, next level material is1289。不过，由于三角底部已为失守，或见金价仍有下滑风险。下方支持见于1248and1239USD, further estimated as1226USD.

London Gold10month14day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1248 – 1267
Resistance level:1276 – 1289
Support bit:1239 – 1226

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton
9month23Day - 951.22ton
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton
10month11Day - 958.90ton
10month12Day - 958.90ton
10month13Day - 961.57ton

10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Breaking the Triangle and Extending Weakness under Silver Prices

伦敦白银方面，在近两个月，整体银价波幅正逐步收窄，并形成一组三角型态，随着周初跌破，银价料维持弱势发展。下方延伸支撑预估为17.10as well as16.80USD, next level material is16The US dollar barrier. Upward resistance can be referenced17.90and18.20USD, reference for significant resistance18.60USD.

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton
9month30Day - 11270.04ton
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton
10month11Day - 11232.93ton
10month12Day - 11232.93ton
10month13Day - 11232.93ton

London Silver10month14day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.10 – 17.90
Resistance level:18.20 – 18.60
Support bit:16.80 – 16.40



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

美元周五上涨，追随美国公债收益率的涨势，投资者等待美国零售销售数据及Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED) 官员的讲话。美国零售销售数据可能带来一些线索，显现消费面情况。该数据公布后，美联储主席耶伦将在一经济会议上发表讲话。波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦也将在会上发表讲话。周三公布的美联储9月会议记录促使投资者提高对美联储12月会议加息的预期。市场目前预计届时行动的可能性在70%about.

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range and entering the end region of the triangular pattern, it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market will be launched in the short term. The top of the triangle is located at1.1260At the bottom, see1.1140，欧元周五滑落至1.11水平，初步跌破了三角型态；此外，1.11Also250The balance moving average position is expected to see a wave of decline in the euro, which will further lead to1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal. The upper resistance is estimated to be50Balance moving average1.12Horizontal.

Focus:
Friday: Italy9monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly trade balance
10month17day(one): Italy8Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧eurozone9monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value
10month18day(two): Germany9monthPPI‧eurozone8Monthly current account‧direct investment/Net liquidity of securities investment‧Europe10Monthly central bank refinancing rate‧Deposit interest rate
10month21day(five): Eurozone10Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index

Related news
France9monthHICP终值较前月下跌0.2%, up from the same period last year0.5%
Germany9月批发物价较前月上涨0.4%, down from the same period last year0.3%
Germany9monthCPI终值较前月上升0.1%, up from the same period last year0.7%
Germany9monthHICP终值较上年同期上升0.5%
Germany9monthHICP终值较前月持平

消息指欧洲央行下周或审议QE选项，但可能延至12月再做决定

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.1000 – 1.0900 – 1.0700



JPY yen - Policy Differences between the United States and Japan, Weak Development of the Japanese yen

由于风险偏好升温，避险货币日圆承压。风险偏好之所以升温，是因为中国数据显示，9Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)since2012year3月以来首次由负转正。美元兑日圆涨至104.25日圆，周四升至104.62, for7月末以来最高。

In terms of technical trend, the US dollar has been rising against the Japanese yen for several days, and the significant increase last Tuesday has even broken through the top of the triangular pattern formed in the past three months. After the pattern breaks through, it indicates that the exchange rate still has a tendency to further rise, and the target can be seen first105Gateway. In addition, at the beginning of this year, the high point reached6month24Daily low99.08Calculate the cumulative decline of,38.2%Rebound level107.70Expand to50%Then it is110.40. as for200Balance moving average108.10It can also serve as another basis for resistance. The closest supporting material is102.30, with significant support estimated at50Balance moving average101.80and100Pass, please pay attention9In the second half of the month, the exchange rate made repeated attempts, but remained stable100Therefore, it will be regarded as a key support level for the mid-term trend.

Focus:
10month17day(one): Japan10Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index‧Japan8Monthly industrial production revision‧Capacity utilization index monthly rate
10month20day(four)Japan invested in overseas bonds two weeks ago‧Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks Last Week

Related news
Tuesday/路透调查：大约70%的受访分析师预计日本央行将在1月会议或稍晚采取进一步刺激措施
Wednesday/审议委员原田泰称，下次利率检视会上没有必要放松政策

消息指日本央行下次会议料下调通胀率预测，或暂不放松政策

Japan8Monthly unadjusted current account surplus20,008Billion yen

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.70 – 108.40 – 110.40
support 102.30 – 101.60 – 100.00



GBP pound - 脱欧疑虑英镑挫跌

英镑兑美元维持低位区间徘徊，英国央行数名官员即将发表谈话。英国首相文翠珊 提议让议会参与退欧进程，缓解了一些投资者对于“硬退欧”前景的担忧，不过针对此举影响的不确定性可能会令英镑承压。欧洲理事会主席图斯克(Donald Tusk)周四警告，欧盟将不会提供英国优于“硬脱欧”的条件。图斯克负责欧盟方面处理英国脱欧谈判事务。

As can be seen from the chart, the GBP/USD has fallen below the starting point of this month1.30关口以后，持续处于下行走势。若计算由七月至今的双底型态，以8month16Daily low1.2872为颈线参考，双顶幅度570点，延伸下行目标为1.22To the extent that1.20关口。上方阻力预估在1.2500and1.2620The next level material is1.2830Horizontal.

Focus:
10month18day(two): UK9monthCPI‧coreCPI‧RPI‧扣除抵押贷款的RPI&#8231PIInput price&#8231PIOutput price&#8231PI核心产出物价
10month19day(three): UK9Annual rate of monthly average weekly salary income‧Monthly rate of people claiming unemployment benefits‧UK as of8According to the three months of the monthILOStandard calculated unemployment rate
10month20day(four): UK9Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy%
10month21day(five): UK9Monthly deduction of net public sector loans from state-owned banks‧Public sector net borrowing(PSNB)‧Shortfall in revenue and expenditure in the public sector(PSNCR)

Related news
Tuesday/英镑贸易加权指数触及近八年低点74.0

BRC: UK9Monthly same store retail sales increased compared to the same period last year0.4%
BRC: UK9月零售支出较上年同期上升1.3%
britain8月建筑业产出较前月下滑1.5%Growth compared to the same period last year0.2%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2620 – 1.2800
support 1.2200 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

瑞士联邦统计局周五公布，瑞士9Monthly Producer/进口物价较前月上涨0.3%, down from the same period last year0.1%。生产者物价较上年同期持平，进口物价下降0.4%。

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
Switzerland9Monthly Producer/进口物价较前月上涨0.3%, down from the same period last year0.1%

Focus:
10month20day(four)Switzerland9Monthly trade balance(Swiss franc)‧Previous value30.25Yiyi surplus        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 跌破近期区间

As shown in the technical chart, AUD/USD8month11Daily high0.7760，9month8Daily high0.7732，9month29Daily high0.7711Despite the gradual decline in high levels, it is expected that the Australian dollar will still see room for adjustment in the short term. Calculated from the cumulative increase from the low point in May to the high point in August,50%The callback amplitude is0.7450The low point reached in September also happened to stop in this area. If it expands to61.8%Will reach0.7380Horizontal, this position is also250The location of the balance moving average; If it breaks further, there is a chance to try again5month24Daily low0.7145. The upper resistance is seen in25Balance moving average0.7590and0.7650，较大阻力预估为0.77Horizontal.

Related news
Australia8月经季节调整的自住房屋融资较前月下滑3%，投资性房屋融资上升0.1%
NAB: Australia9月企业现况指数升至正8
NAB: Australia9月企业信心指数持稳在正6

Focus:
10month17day(one): Australia9Monthly sales of new cars‧Previous value+0.1%
10month20day(four): Australia9Monthly Employment Number‧Number of full-time employees‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7590 – 0.7650 – 0.7700
support 0.7450 – 0.7380* – 0.7145



NZD New Zealand dollars - 降息预期抑制纽元

技术图表所见，纽元汇价跌破近五个月形成的上升趋向线，展现跌势；随着10Sky shattering25天平均线，同时，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦见持续下滑，预示纽元仍存有下跌空间。向下预估会先试探0.70At this psychological level, breaking through the next level of support can be seen in250Balance moving average0.6885To the extent that0.68Horizontal. The upper resistance material is0.7150and50Balance moving average0.7260Horizontal.

Related news
Tuesday/纽西兰央行重申打算放松政策，以刺激通胀

Focus:
10month18day(two)New Zealand Season 3CPI‧New Zealand9月公债海外持有比例

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7170 – 0.7260 – 0.7320
support 0.7000 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
10month18day(two): Canada8Monthly manufacturing sales rate
10month19day(three)Bank of Canada Interest Rate Resolution
10month21day(five): Canada9monthCPIMonthly rate‧Central Bank CoreCPI‧Canada8Monthly retail sales‧Deduction of retail sales of automobiles

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)