Crossing the Sea 2016year10month11day

Crossing the Sea 2016year10month11day

Focus this week:
10month11day(Tuesday)
United States9月独立企业联盟(NFIB)Small Business Confidence Index

10month12day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A8monthJOLTS职位空缺数
U.S.A10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

10month13day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly import price rate
U.S.A9月出口物价月率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits

10month14day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly federal budget
U.S.A9Monthly final demandPP
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A8Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A10月密西根大学消费者信心指数初值



Important economic data released today:
17：00 Germany10monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧Predict positive4.3‧Front value positive0.5
17：00 Germany10monthZEWCurrent situation index‧Predict positive55.5‧Front value positive55.1
18：00 United States9月独立企业联盟(NFIB)Small Business Confidence Index‧Previous value94.4
20：15 Canada9Monthly housing construction annual rate‧forecast19.0010000 households‧Previous value18.2710000 households



News of the Week

Tuesday/芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯称，美国12月如加息，不会感到意外
沙特能源部长乐观认为，下月OPEC会议或可达成全球限产协议
三星电子宣布将在全球停止销售和更换Galaxy Note7mobile phone


10month10day
LondongoldMorning order price:1262.10
London gold afternoon fixing price:1259.50



Today's Introduction

美元周二继续走升，很大程度与美联储升息预期改变有关。根据CME GroupofFedWatch程序，市场参与者预计美联储12月升息的机率约为70%。投资者等待周三将公布的9月美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议记录，以从中研判美联储距离升息到底有多近。美国芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯周二在悉尼发表演说后对媒体表示，他可以接受美国12月升息，但在做决定之前他倾向观察经济及通胀进展情况。埃文斯今年没有美联储政策决定的投票权，但全面参与政策商讨，并将在2017年拥有投票权。



XAU London Gold - 金价三角破底

As shown in the technical chart, the gold price is currently relatively close to the resistance reference1261and1269USD, next level material is1278and1291。不过，由于三角底部已为失守，或见金价仍有下滑风险。下方支持见于1250and1241USD, further estimated as1230and1218USD.

London Gold10month11day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1250 – 1261
Resistance level:1269 – 1278 – 1291
Support bit:1241 – 1230 – 1218

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month12Day - 939.94ton
9month13Day - 935.49ton
9month16Day - 942.61ton
9month19Day - 942.61ton
9month20Day - 938.75ton
9month21Day - 944.39ton
9month22Day - 950.92ton
9month23Day - 951.22ton
9month26Day - 951.22ton
9month27Day - 949.14ton
9month28Day - 949.14ton
9month29Day - 949.14ton
9month30Day - 947.95ton
10month3Day - 947.95ton
10month4Day - 947.95ton
10month5Day - 947.63ton
10month6Day - 947.63ton
10month7Day - 958.90ton
10month10Day - 958.90ton


10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
11Monthly goldoptionDue date:10month26day


Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source:World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year10month6day)

Global:32977.7ton(+53.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1833.5ton(+4.9ton)
Russia(7)：1526.1ton(+20.1ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Breaking the Triangle and Extending Weakness under Silver Prices

伦敦白银方面，在近两个月，整体银价波幅正逐步收窄，并形成一组三角型态，随着周初跌破，银价料维持弱势发展。下方延伸支撑预估为17.30as well as17.00USD, next level material is16.80and16The US dollar barrier. Upward resistance can be referenced18.00and18.30USD, reference for significant resistance18.70USD.

London Silver10month11day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.30 – 18.00
Resistance level:18.30 – 18.70
Support bit:17.00 – 16.80

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month12Day - 11231.64ton
9month13Day - 11272.98ton
9month16Day - 11272.98ton
9month19Day - 11305.47ton
9month20Day - 11305.47ton
9month21Day - 11305.47ton
9month22Day - 11305.47ton
9month23Day - 11337.95ton
9month26Day - 11337.95ton
9month27Day - 11337.95ton
9month28Day - 11287.75ton
9month29Day - 11287.75ton
9month30Day - 11270.04ton
10month3Day - 11270.04ton
10month4Day - 11265.41ton
10month5Day - 11206.36ton
10month6Day - 11206.36ton
10month7Day - 11206.36ton
10month10Day - 11232.93ton



EUR euro - Triangle interval dispute

美元周二全面上涨，继续受益于Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED) 最可能在12月升息的预期。投资者将关注周三公布的9monthFederal Open Market Committee of the United States(FOMC) 会议记录，从中寻找美联储距离升息有多接近的线索。根据CME GroupofFedWatch工具，交易商现在预计美联储12月升息的机率为约70%。周一为美国哥伦布纪念日假期，市场焦点在英镑上，英镑在周五闪跌。英镑周一连续第三日下挫。

The trend of the euro against the US dollar, in September, the euro roughly fell below1.11to1.1360Within the range and entering the end region of the triangular pattern, it is estimated that a new round of unilateral market will be launched in the short term. The top of the triangle is located at1.1260At the bottom, see1.1140，欧元周五滑落至1.11水平，初步跌破了三角型态；此外，1.11Also250天平均线位置，倘若破位将见欧元迎来一波下挫，进一步则会以1.10and1.09Level is an important basis,6The decline of the euro just stopped in the month1.09Above, the extended significant decline is estimated to be1.07Horizontal. The upper resistance is estimated to be50Balance moving average1.12Horizontal.

Focus:
Tuesday: Germany10monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧Current situation index
Wednesday: France9monthHICPFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly industrial production
Thursday: Germany9monthHICPFinal value‧CPIFinal value‧Germany10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧France10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数‧Italy10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: Italy9monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly trade balance

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1200 – 1.1260 – 1.1360
support 1.1100 – 1.1000



JPY yen - 突破三角，短期弱势持续

一项路透调查显示，日本央行料将等到明年才会进一步放宽政策，除非其间日圆出现急涨明显损及经济。日本央行上个月调整刺激计划，在几年来大规模资产购买未能推高通胀后，将重点转移到瞄准市场利率。回答一项额外问题的分析师中，约70%预期日本央行在1月或其后的会议将增加更多刺激措施；与此同时，仅少数分析师预期央行在10month31day-11month1日的会议将进一步放宽政策，央行在是次会议也会公布长期经济增长和通胀预估。调查是在9month30Solstice10month10日之间开展。

日本财务省周二公布，8The current account surplus of menstruation is2.0万亿日圆，因进口下滑令贸易收支转为顺差。美元兑日圆周二涨至104Horizontal.

In terms of technical trend, the US dollar has been rising against the Japanese yen for several days, and the significant increase last Tuesday has even broken through the top of the triangular pattern formed in the past three months. After the pattern breaks through, it indicates that the exchange rate still has a tendency to further rise, and the target can be seen first105Gateway. In addition, at the beginning of this year, the high point reached6month24Daily low99.08Calculate the cumulative decline of,38.2%Rebound level107.70Expand to50%Then it is110.40. as for200Balance moving average108.40亦可作为另一阻力依据。支持位方面，原先的三角顶部102.30则为较近参考，较大支持预估在50Balance moving average101.70and100Pass, please pay attention9In the second half of the month, the exchange rate made repeated attempts, but remained stable100Therefore, it will be regarded as a key support level for the mid-term trend.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan8Monthly machinery orders
Thursday: Japan9月银行放款余额年率‧日本前周投资海外债券‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks
Friday: Japan9monthCGPI‧Japan10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Related news
Tuesday/路透调查：大约70%的受访分析师预计日本央行将在1月会议或稍晚采取进一步刺激措施

Japan8Monthly unadjusted current account surplus20,008Billion yen

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 105.00 – 107.70 – 108.40 – 110.40
support 102.30 – 101.60 – 100.00



GBP pound - 脱欧疑虑英镑挫跌

英镑兑美元周二重回1.23下方，有关英国退欧给经济带来冲击的疑虑继续打压英镑。英镑贸易加权指数触及近八年低点74.0。有分析指出，金融时报一篇报导是英镑下跌的因素之一。金融时报称，俄罗斯外贸银行(VTB) 可能将欧洲总部迁至法兰克福、巴黎或维也纳，这加剧了金融业缩减伦敦业务的疑虑。

As can be seen from the chart, the GBP/USD has fallen below the starting point of this month1.30关口以后，持续处于下行走势。若计算由七月至今的双底型态，以8month16Daily low1.2872为颈线参考，双顶幅度570点，延伸下行目标为1.23水平，进一步下试支持见于1.22To the extent that1.20关口。上方阻力预估在1.2500and1.2620The next level material is1.2830Horizontal.

Focus:
Thursday: UK9monthRICSPrice difference‧britain10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
Friday: UK8月建筑业产出

Related news
Tuesday/英镑贸易加权指数触及近八年低点74.0

BRC: UK9Monthly same store retail sales increased compared to the same period last year0.4%
BRC: UK9月零售支出较上年同期上升1.3%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2500 – 1.2620 – 1.2800
support 1.2350 – 1.2200 – 1.2000



CHF Swiss franc - Struggle to maintain interval

As shown in the chart pointers, with the recovery of relative strength indicators and random indices from oversold areas, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to see further upward momentum, indicating that resistance in the near market can be noted first200Balance moving average0.9810and1.00Gateway. As for the significant support below, it will still be eye-catching0.95Horizontal, respectively8Month and6The moon also sees stability above this area, and the key to the next level is5month3Daily low0.9440。

Focus:
10month10day(one)Switzerland9Monthly unemployment rate
10month12day(three)Switzerland10monthZEWInvestor confidence index
10month14day(five)Switzerland9Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9810 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440



AUD AUD - 跌破近期区间

澳元兑美元一度触及三周低位0.7543，跟随纽元弱势。澳元在过去三周陷于0.7535to0.7711的宽幅区间。美元兑大多数货币上涨，此前美国民主党总统候选人希拉里克林顿在美国大选民调中领先对手共和党总统候选人特朗普。投资人倾向认为希拉里获胜将会维持现状，而若是特朗普获胜，则意味着政策的不确定性，美联储可能对收紧政策迟疑不决。

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元前期陷于0.76-0.77美元的交投区间，但周四已开始见出现跌破，或见澳元开始有回跌压力，当前需视乎澳元能否扳回0.76这个区间底部。澳元兑美元较近阻力会先见于下降趋向线0.7710and0.7760水平；至于向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可回破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面；初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口。下方支持关注目前处于0.7510Horizontal100天平均线，倘若跌破，预估进一步调整幅度会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380Horizontal.

Related news
Australia8月经季节调整的自住房屋融资较前月下滑3%，投资性房屋融资上升0.1%
NAB: Australia9月企业现况指数升至正8
NAB: Australia9月企业信心指数持稳在正6

Focus:
Friday: Australia10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7710 – 0.7760 – 0.7850 – 0.8000
support 0.7510 – 0.7450 – 0.7380



NZD New Zealand dollars - 央行官员发表鸽派讲话，纽元承压

纽西兰央行周二重申，将需要进一步放松政策，以刺激表现温和的通胀。央行助理总裁John McDermott讲话后，纽元兑美元从0.7100Falling nearby0.7060水平，随后缩减部分跌幅。央行的年通胀率目标区间为1-3%，第二季时的通胀年率为0.4%，而且自2014年底以来通胀率一直低于目标区间。McDermott在演讲中表示，7-9月通胀数据将于10month18日公布，“普遍预期将继续显示通胀偏低”。该央行认为纽西兰第三季通胀年率为0.2%左右。上个月纽西兰央行维持官方隔夜拆款利率在纪录低位2.0%不变，但为进一步降息敞开大门。McDermott周二称，如9月政策会议评估时所言，货币政策将继续保持宽松。纽西兰央行下次利率决定是在11month10Day.

技术走势而言，较近阻力见于0.7170and50Balance moving average0.7260，较大阻力预估在0.7320. Lower support0.71and0.70关口，下一级见于0.6950Horizontal.

Related news
Tuesday/纽西兰央行重申打算放松政策，以刺激通胀

Focus:
Wednesday: New Zealand9Monthly manufacturing industryPMI
Thursday: New Zealand9Monthly Food Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7170 – 0.7260 – 0.7320
support 0.7100 – 0.7000 – 0.6950



CAD Cad - Repeated trends

As seen in the chart trend, it is more recent to support reference first1.30and1.2820; The current critical point is1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458. However, it is also important to note that the relative strength index and random index have fallen into overbought areas, and caution should be taken to prevent the US dollar from having a tendency to retreat in the short term. Estimated resistance at200Balance moving average1.3270Horizontal, with high resistance material1.3350and1.34Horizontal.

Focus:
10month11day(two): Canada9Monthly housing construction annual rate
10month12day(three): Canada10Thomson Reuters/益普索主要消费者信心指数
10month13day(four): Canada8Monthly New Housing Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3270 – 1.3350 – 1.3400
support 1.3000 – 1.2820 – 1.2650* – 1.2500





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)