Fei Yifei: Gold is still swinging, and crude oil and asphalt are mainly high altitude

　　
From the prophecy, you can learn a lot of information about the prophet, but you have little knowledge about the future.
　　
A book titled "Measuring" written by the Deputy Secretary of Research and Statistics at the Federal ReserveFOMCThe Federal Reserve employees' working paper on the ability to cope with future economic downturns was released over the weekend, summarizing that“FRB/USThe simulation of the model in severe economic recession suggests that large-scale asset purchases and forward-looking guidance on the future path of the federal funds rate should provide sufficient additional easing to fully compensate for the more limited ability to lower short-term interest rates in most cases
　　
A careful reading of the Federal Reserve documents reveals that the Federal Reserve is actually unable to withstand a sharp economic recession. If we experience an economic recession today or one year (or even two years) later, the Federal Reserve's weapons may not be able to approach the capabilities described in the documents. This year6At the Federal Reserve meeting this month,FOMCstay2018The median federal funds rate at the end of the year is2.4%I guess it's even lower now. The market even expects the federal funds rate to be2019There won't be any changes before the end of the year100Basis points
　　
The problem revealed by the Federal Reserve's documents with relief is that interest rates have been lowered/QE/The effectiveness of interest rate guidance increases with the starting point of interest rates - therefore, if the federal funds rate is3%than2%It will make comprehensive policy tools more effective.
　　
So what impact do the Federal Reserve documents have on the market and the Federal Reserve? It depends on whether the hawks or the doves: for the hawks, they hope to raise interest rates faster rather than slower. Assuming the next recession occurs one year later, from sources unrelated to Federal Reserve policy, such as the collapse of the European Union or a major geopolitical event. For example, federal funds100A basis point, they may hold one or two meetings to stimulate it by lowering policy interest rates, while laying the foundation for larger stimulus measures that may be needed from fiscal or helicopter funding. If the federal funds rate is very low, investors, households, and companies may lose confidence when they realize that policies have nowhere to go.
　　
Technical analysis:
　　
SpotgoldOn the daily chart, it is still in a cross shaped state today, and currently there is no direction for fluctuationsMA5、MA10The convergence of the moving averageBOLLStrong suppression is formed near the middle rail line, with resistance levels roughly around1343Nearby, it's also around today's high, while the support below is focused onBOLLLower track support1330Near.4Hour chart up high1343The back fall is relatively rapid,KThe shadow line on the line shape is longer, combined with the indicators in the attached figureSTOForming a dead cross downward, the subsequent direction in the evening is more likely to be bearish on gold, pay attention to1330Just pass the checkpoint, and try to operate at a high altitude in the evening.
　　
In terms of Ninggui Asphalt, yesterday's bearish candlestick appeared somewhat abrupt, almost entirely showing a physical decline. Today, the opening price also opened on the daily chart at onceMA5Below the trajectory line, the downward space opens up again toMA135Moving average support4470Near, and above the front support lineMA5At this point, the moving average evolves into a resistance role, roughly distributed around4580-4600On the front line, temporarily focusing on high altitude operations, actively catering to market trends.
　　
Suggestions for spot gold operations:
　　
　　1Above1342-43Short selling, stop loss4Point, look1333-31frontline;
　　
　　2First time below1330Long, stop loss4Point, look1336-38frontline;
　　
　　3, breaking through1330You can contact the author Fei Yifei2930/550/190WeChatfyfai8Obtain strategy.
　　
Suggestions for the operation of Ninggui asphalt:
　　
　　1Above4550-4560Short selling, stop loss40Points, target4480-60frontline;
　　
　　2Below4460-50Long, stop loss40Points, target4550-60frontline;
　　
Today's Key Financial Data and Events2016year8month23Day Tuesday
　　
　　①14:00Switzerland7Monthly trade account
　　
　　②15:00France8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
　　
　　③15:30Germany8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
　　
　　④16:00eurozone8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
　　
　　⑤18:00britain8monthCBIIndustrial order difference
　　
　　⑥21:45U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
　　
⑦22:00U.S.A7Annualized total monthly new home sales, US8Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
　　
⑧ The next day04:30From the United States to8month19Day and WeekAPIcrude oilstock
　　
Disclaimer: The above article was written by analyst official account Fei Yifei, and some news and information content is excerpted from online resources. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and investors operate accordingly at their own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting