一诺大师：8.16早评，俄罗斯重磅表态推升油价，今日天然气原油操作策略！

导读： 周一，继沙特能源部长法利赫之后，俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克也称“如有必要时”加入限产行列。相关言论推升国际油价至一个月来最高收盘价。但是，对于下月会议能否真的达成协议，市场纷纷持怀疑态度。

今日重点数据关注：

16:30 britain7monthCPIMonthly rate, UK7Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate

17:00 Germany8monthZEWEconomic Prosperity Index, Eurozone8monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index6Monthly adjusted trade account

20:30 U.S.A7After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate, USA7Annualized total monthly construction of new homes, USA7Total monthly construction permits

21:15 U.S.A7Monthly industrial output rate

行情回顾：油市、汇市、金市、期市

国际油市

油价延续涨势触及五周高位 因传闻产油国将协商支持油价

油价周一触及五周高位，三日连升累积升幅达到10%或以上，因对产油国在crude oil供应过剩的情况下，将可能合力支撑油价的猜测升温。美国原油futuresrise1.25USD, or2.81%Reported per barrel45.74美元。该合约在收盘后升至45.87USD, for7month21The highest in the past few days.

全球金市

美元走软推升金价 市场关注美联储动向

Monday（8month15日），市场对美联储年内加息的预期降温，美元小幅下跌，提振金价上扬。上周五，美国零售销售数据意外持平，暗示消费者支出放缓。此外，衡量通胀的主要指标生产者价格指数（PPI）也录得下滑，市场推迟美联储加息预期至明年6Month.

全球汇市

The decline of the US dollar 因美联储升息预期减弱

美元兑一篮子货币周一下跌，因近期发布的美国经济数据疲弱，削弱了美联储今年升息的预期。联邦基金利率期货走势暗示，交易员周一预计12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes is approximately43%, lower than last Friday's45%。美元指数下跌0.1%Report95.61，上周五曾跌至8month3The lowest so far.

金属期市

伦敦期铜从一个月低位回稳 但中国增长放缓前景令期铜承压

伦敦期铜周一回稳，因美元走软提供了一些支撑，但主要消费国－中国经济成长不断放缓令期铜仍离上一交易日触及的一个月低点不远。伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜收高0.1%Report4767美元，上周五盘中触及7month12日来最低的4750.50美元。三个月期铝收高1.2%Report1676美元，稍早触及一个月高位1678USD.

Technical analysis of spot crude oil:

本周大阳强行收复了前两交易日两阴线的调整高点（日线可观），而形成中继上涨的形态。时隔一个月后强行站稳20日均线上方，随后带动短均线其形成拐头金叉从而支撑油价。彰显出进一步上行的动能。多头的收复能力比较强。可能下周不会出现较大的回调，直接强势整理向上。240minutekLine in43.5美元一线多次受阻至破位后价格一路高涨，周线收官形成三连阳的形态，gold分割线上在61.8%（45.23一线）或许及50%（44.09一线）有将形高位盘整的可能性。综合来看，油价短线回落需求已完成，目前正蓄力上涨，上方空间依然大，后世油价上行的动能教足，在未有明显的反转信号之前，空单需谨慎对之。

Spot crude oil operation strategy:

策略一：原油44.8Long nearby, stop loss44.5, look at the goal45.5frontline;

Strategy 2:45.5若企稳做空，继续上扬则追多，注意控制仓位，目标看46frontline;

青西天然气技术分析：

天然气上周再度收取一根阴柱，从大趋势上来看，空头趋势愈加明显，在上周二的大幅回落以及周四EIA利空后反弹再回落，空头力量比较强势。从日线图分析来看，5日均线下行趋势明显，布林带张品逐渐扩大，行情运行于布林下轨上方。附图MACD快慢线死叉下行，绿色能量柱增量，KDJ三线指标拐头有向上迹象。

from4小时图来看；5Daily moving average10Daily moving average and20日均线有聚拢之势，整体呈上行走势，布林带有收窄迹象，行情运行在布林带中轨上方附近，附图MACD快慢线金叉上行，红色能量柱增量，KDJ三线指标向上发散运行。综合来看；一诺大师认为日间操盘应注意几点；第一点，本人认为本周仍是空头的概率大些。所以看空的成分多些，从日线图上分析来看，因此我们首先需要确认的便是上方的一个压制。操作上仍然以高空为主的思路进行操作。第二点，重点关注上方第一压力位，本人认为首先关注4315一线，其次则关注4350一线压力。更多具体操盘策略以VIP客户实盘内给出为准。

Qingxi Natural Gas Operation Strategy:

策略一：首见4340附近空单进入，损40个点，目标：4140, hold against the limit;

策略二：意外上破4350附近多单进，损40个点，目标；4460, hold against the limit;

Strategy Three:4230附近可尝试多单进，损40个点，目标：4350, hold against the limit;

The market does not prohibit us from making mistakes, but rather requires us to know our mistakes and be able to change them. Making a mistake does not mean losing control, letting go does not mean letting go, losing control makes it difficult to recover, and letting go leads to going with the flow. The market is fair to every investor. A magnificent fall is better than meaningless wandering, because a momentary loss can lead to a loss of confidence in the market that was once full of expectations, or dissatisfaction with one's own teacher. Here, I want to tell everyone that choice is greater than effort, and character determines fate. Therefore, the road ahead is not easy to stop. The market is a place where the strong spread their ambitions, and the weak find it difficult to move forward. The size of the heart determines the size of the stage. The past is irreparable, and in the future, I will work with you to expand our horizons and achieve success.

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(Note: The above article is original by Master Yinuo. Please indicate the source when reprinting. Master Yinuo kindly reminds that there are risks in investment and caution should be exercised when entering the market. The above only represents my personal opinion and is not used as a basis for operation. Therefore, I will bear the risks of operation based on this.)