Li Wanxi6month17day(Friday)Asphalt Market Analysis and Early Operation Suggestions

Li Wanxi6month17day(Friday)Asphalt Market Analysis and Early Operation Suggestions

Due to the four major bearish factors, last night'scrude oilAsphalt plummeted unilaterally to a new four week low.

　　1Brexit concerns. Distance from the UK6month23There is still a week left until the referendum on Brexit, and the oil and other markets are still influenced by the results of the polls, which increasingly show that the majority support Brexit. If you have any doubts, please add credibilityjs6486

　　2Canada and Nigeria may gradually resume production capacity. Market analysis suggests that the restart of Canadian crude oil production, the prospect of Nigeria resuming production, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)The unexpected production of member countries, as well as the risk of a smaller than expected decrease in production due to rising oil prices, may contain future increases in oil prices.

　　3Russia and Iran will increase exports in a balanced manner. Market concerns about increased exports from major oil producing countries and the possibility of shale oil resuming production have also dragged down oil prices. Russian Energy Minister Novak said on Thursday that Russian crude oil exports may increase this year3%Maintaining this trend next year may lead to a recovery in US shale oil production.

　　4US inventory data has also dragged down oil prices. US Energy Information Agency(EIA)Wednesday(6month15day)The released data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased last week, but the decline was much smaller than expected, and gasoline inventories significantly decreased.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the Bollinger Bands did not provide support for oil prices, and oil prices chose to continue to decline. The current decline closely following the Bollinger Bands indicates that the downward trend will continue. From the four hour trend chart, it can be seen that the Bollinger Bands are moving downwards as a whole, but there are obvious signs of opening and closing. The upper and middle tracks continue to move downwards, while the lower track turns upwards,KThe line price has been continuously falling since being suppressed at the high point of the period, breaking through the middle track and touching the lower track. The price continues to fluctuate and fall between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, so morning operations continue to short at high levels.

Suggestions for morning operation of spot asphalt:

　　1Below4420—4430Long nearby, stop loss40Point, look at the target4460nearby;

　　2Above4500Short nearby, stop loss40Point, look at the target4400Near.

Suggestions for early crude oil operation:

　　1Rebound47.2-47.5Short range, stop loss0.5Point, look at the target46.0-46.2;

　　2For more real-time market analysis, please pay attention to the author Li Wanxi's reputationjs6486know

　　3Falling back45.4-45.6Long range, stop loss0.5Point, look at the target46.5-47.7;