The Federal Reserve stands still, gold hits a new month high

Thursday Beijing time(3month17day)before dawn02:00Federal ReserveFOMCAnnounce interest rate decisions and issue policy statements,The interest rate resolution maintains the federal funds rate at0.25%-0.5%The interval remains unchanged.have6Officials expect to raise interest rates once this year, more than3Of1First name.


After the announcement of the resolution, spot gold prices skyrocketed in the short term10The US dollar reached a new high in a month.


[blockquote]
As soon as the interest rate decision was announced, speculative buying flooded in,ComexMost active8Monthly gold will be traded immediately after the Federal Reserve announces no interest rate hikes5528Hand, a large number of purchases instantly push up the price of gold10dollar/ounce.


International SpotgoldWednesday（6month15Seize the opportunity to stand up1290dollar/Ounces, but gold prices fluctuate violently in the short term, with ups and downs.[/blockquote]

Regarding monetary policy


It is estimated that interest rates will be raised this year2Secondary, but there are6Officials expect to raise interest rates this year1Times, more than3Of1Name. Expected interest rate hike next year3Second, below3Monthly expected4Times, and will2018Median expected annual federal funds rate3%Down to2.4%. Maintain discounting at1%unchanged.


About Employment and Inflation


It is expected that labor market indicators will strengthen, and the pace of improvement in the job market will slow down.


It is expected that the market based inflation compensation index will decline. It is expected that as the impact of oil and import prices subsides, inflation will eventually rise to2%. expect2018The annual personal consumption expenditure will reach2%Most survey based inflation expectations indicators have not changed much.


Regarding the current economic situation


take2016yearGDPExpected growth rate2.2%Down to2%。Foreign exchange gold


The economic growth rate seems to have picked up, but the drag from exports has weakened, and commercial investment is "weak". It is reiterated that the current economic situation is only suitable for gradual interest rate hikes.


We will continue to monitor the global financial and economic situation, but did not specifically mention risks such as Brexit.


【6monthFOMCDeclare the four major wording changes you cannot miss


① The job market: the description of "the labor market is still further improving" has changed to "the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed down";


② Inflation: The description of "market based inflation indicators remaining low" has changed to "market based inflation indicators decreasing";


③ Economic situation: The description of "economic activity growth seems to have slowed down" has changed to "economic activity growth seems to have recovered";


④ Family expenditure: The wording of "household expenditure growth has slowed down" has been revised to "household expenditure growth has strengthened".


After the announcement of the resolution, spot gold prices skyrocketed in the short term10The US dollar reached a new high in a month.


Although the Federal Reserve slightly raised short-term inflation expectations in its resolution, long-term inflation expectations remained unchanged and the Federal Reserve lowered themGDPExpectations and interest rate expectations support a surge in gold prices.


Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen pointed out in a statement after the meeting that recent economic indicators have been mixed, and gradually raising interest rates may help achieve the goal. It is appropriate to adjust monetary policy cautiously.

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