A new round of "loose season" has started, and analysts are optimistic that the People's Bank of China will cut interest rates in the next two weeks

The deadline for the Brexit referendum is approaching, and the "dominoes" of a new round of global easing seem to have been overturned. Even the United States, which stood out in the economic recovery, was earlier in the process6At the monthly interest rate meeting, a dovish signal was conveyed, and the market now believes that the Federal Reserve may not only be involved in this summer, but may also2016Throughout the year, there will be no interest rate hikes.


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Some countries have eagerly chosen to cut interest rates to resist external interference and boost their own economies.6month9On the same day, the Bank of Korea unexpectedly announced a rate cut25One basis point to record low1.25%. This is from the Bank of Korea2015year6Interest rates have been lowered for the first time since the beginning of the month. Following South Korea's interest rate cut is Russia. The Russian central bank announced last week that it will shift key interest rates from11%Down to10.5%。Foreign exchange gold


According to insiders cited by Reuters, if the UK decides to Brexit through a referendum, the European Central Bank will announce on the day after the referendum results are announced that it will join forces with the Bank of England to rescue financial markets. Reuters also mentioned that a senior central bank official said, "There will be a statement announcing the need to maintain sufficient market liquidity no matter what."


Nikkei News mentioned that Tuesday（6month14The Bank of Japan unexpectedly cancelled its public market bond purchases. The Bank of Japan may be forced to preserve its bond buying ammunition in response to market turbulence caused by the UK referendum. Due to investors rushing to purchase Japanese bonds due to the risk of a UK referendum, Japan5Year10Year20Year30Year and40The yield of treasury bond in is hitting a record low every day.


Coincidentally, following the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, the Danish central bank may also intervene due to the risk of Brexit. Governor of the Danish Central BankLars RohdeIt is said that if the UK decides to withdraw from the EU in a referendum next week, it will endanger the Danish krone's pegging to the euro, and Denmark has unlimited monetary intervention firepower to eliminate all threats to its own currency pegging.[/blockquote]

A domestic analyst stated that the central banks that have already taken action are not major central banks, and their actions have little impact on international financial markets and will not affect China. The impact of the UK's Brexit referendum should mainly occur in Europe andforeign exchangeThe market is estimated to have limited impact outside of Europe. However, the industry insider also pointed out that this uncertainty will push up the US dollar in the short term, bringing passive depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan. The specific response of the domestic capital market is uncertain, but risk aversion may increase.


Against the backdrop of a new round of easing cycles, the market environment has undergone a new round of structural reforms. This also increases the possibility of the People's Bank of China following the reserve requirement and interest rate cuts to release liquidity.

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