Li Wanxi:6month13 (Monday)How to layout the future market after the rapid rebound of silver due to interest rate hikes and suspension?

Li Wanxi:6month13 (Monday)How to layout the future market after the rapid rebound of silver due to interest rate hikes and suspension?


　　5After the release of the weak monthly non farm employment report, the market has basically ruled it out6The possibility of monthly interest rate hikes. And for7The expectation of monthly interest rate hikes is also showing a cooling trend. But in the opinion of the author Li Wanxi5The non-agricultural events in the month were only accidental and not a significant deterioration in market employment. Why?If you have any doubts, please add credibilityjs6486

Firstly, adjust the largest telecommunications operator in the United States, Verizon Communications Company(Verizon)After the strike, the United States5The monthly growth rate of non-agricultural employment is not much lower than the expected trend level, or the breakeven level.

Secondly4The downward revision of the monthly non-agricultural employment population reflects seasonal adjustments, so the trend will be carefully calculated.

Thirdly, other employment indicators such as the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits performed better. Recently, the growth rate of US employment data has slowed down, rather than plummeting.

Federal Reserve6The monthly forecast is expected to remain stable, but it will open the door to recent interest rate hikes, which is expected to slightly change the economic outlook. The median expectation for the federal interest rate in the economic forecast summary is expected to remain unchanged, and the pace of interest rate hikes after this year is highly likely to slow down.

Now, Goldman Sachs has changed its expectations for the probability of interest rate hikes at future Federal Reserve meetings, and will7The probability of monthly interest rate hikes increases from40%Reduce to35%, will9The probability of monthly interest rate hikes increases from30%Upgrade to35%Currently, it has not changed the Federal Reserve9Expectations of monthly interest rate hikes. Due to the decrease in unemployment rate to4.7%Salary growth has significantly rebounded, and financial conditions have become more relaxed. The pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will not stop indefinitely. Teacher Li Wanxi provides online guidance to Weixinjs6486

The current suspension of interest rate hikes has created a gap period for the rise of silver. Especially the price of silver3300After stabilizing on the front line, there will be a trend of oscillation and upward trend in the future. The rapid rebound after today's white market correction has seen silver prices break through the rebound repair line38.2%Position, pointing straight up3700Integer level.

Specific operational strategy: Silver price3560Long on the front line Stop loss35Points Target View3610