The European Central Bank is expected to remain calm and pay attention to Draghi's speech and economic forecasts

Undoubtedly, the highlight of European economic news in the coming week will be Thursday（6month2The European Central Bank of Japan（ECB）6Monthly interest rate resolution, Draghi(Mario Draghi)Press conference and the latest economic forecast from central bank staff.


Regarding this, Bloomberg economistsJamie Murray、Maxime SbaihiandDavid PowellOthers have written an article stating that,The meeting may not be too exciting, as considering the strong economic growth in the first quarter and the ongoing implementation of previously announced stimulus measures, it is expected that the European Central Bank will9The policy stance may not be reviewed before the month, so the bank is expected to maintain all interest rates unchanged at this meeting.Foreign exchange gold


Various interest rates of the European Central Bank:

(White line)-Marginal loan interest rate. Yellow line-The main refinancing interest rate. blue line-Deposit mechanism interest rate)


Goldman Sachs EconomistDirk SchumacherIn a report to the client, it is stated that,Only when there is a significant deterioration in the economic outlook, and/Or market fluctuations could lead to a significant tightening of the financial environment, which could trigger further easing measures by the European Central Bank.In this context, the potential Brexit is a clear short-term risk. It is expected that the European Central Bank will ensure that the general rise in investor risk sentiment will not lead to a significant rise in the yield of treasury bond of non core countries or financing problems in the banking industry.


[blockquote]
The basic assumption is that the European Central Bank will not introduce further easing measures at next week's meeting. The expected asset acquisition plan period will start from the current2017year3Month extended to2017year9Month; Perhaps in the9Month or10This decision was announced at the month's meeting because the European Central Bank does not want to wait too long. Whether the European Central Bank will extend asset purchase operations to2017year3The uncertainty after the month may mean that2017year3The yield will significantly increase before the month, and the management committee is likely to want to avoid such a result.


At next week's meeting, it is expected that the European Central Bank will provide a neutral stance on potential further easing measures. Currently, the focus may still be on fully implementing the measures already announced. Draghi may reiterate that if the downside risks of economic growth and inflation materialize, the European Central Bank is willing and able to further relax policies.[/blockquote]

European Central Bank Regulatory Commission Nord（Klaas Knot）Last Wednesday（5month25At the International Financial Association meeting held in Madrid, it was stated that monetary policy "can buy time, but cannot solve problems alone, and more measures are needed.". Monetary stimulus measures are approaching their limits, and if they persist for an extended period of time, they may exacerbate imbalances.


European Central Bank official Linde（Linde）On the same occasion, it was also pointed out that it is "impossible to predict" when the European Central Bank's policy will normalize.


In addition, this meeting will also release new forecasts, suggesting that investors carefully study the revisions made by central bank staff to their economic forecasts, especially since the previously announced first quarter of the eurozoneGDPWhen the growth rate exceeds market expectations; Simultaneously following3Will the loose measures announced in the month lead to adjustments in mid-term inflation estimates. In addition, more details regarding the purchase of corporate bonds may also be disclosed.



According to Bloomberg5month23-24Japanese pairing47Survey by economists, European Central Bank6month2When predicting economic growth and inflation, Japan will bring some good news and is expected to maintain its outlook unchanged or raise it.
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