2026year7month29Analysis of the Japanese Gold Market

2026year7month29daygoldquotations analysis

Fundamentals:

The core macro focus is concentrated on Beijing time7month30Early morning of2Click on the Federal Reserve7monthFOMCInterest rate resolution, current marketCMEThe interest rate tool shows that the probability of maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged this time is close to70%Unexpected interest rate hike25bpProbability about36%At the same time9Expectations of another monthly interest rate hike rise75%The above. On the eve of interest rate negotiations, global funds generally reduced their positions significantly to avoid risks, with long positions taking profits and leaving early, while the US dollar index held on101.4Above the high point of nearly a month,10The yield of one-year US Treasury bonds has slightly fallen to4.60%Nearby but still in a high range overall, the double suppression of the upward space of interest free gold has led to two consecutive days of oscillation and decline in gold prices.

Several foreign institutions have lowered their year-end gold target prices in the short term, citing that the high real interest rate cycle will continue for a longer period of time; However, institutions such as State Street and Dutch International still maintain a medium - to long-term bullish outlook, believing that the expectation of this round of interest rate hikes has been largely digested by the market in advance, and the overall upward cycle of gold has not been disrupted. Currently, it is only a high-level washing and correction stage.

Technical aspect:

From the daily chart, yesterday's closing was a bearish candlestick, and the current gold price is already running at5Below the daily moving average,5The daily moving average has turned downwards, directly transforming from previous support to short-term strong pressure,10The daily moving average is synchronously declining, and the short-term moving average combination is about to form a dead cross, causing the momentum of the bulls to continue to decline. indicatorMACDThe red column continues to shorten, and the fast and slow lines adhere to the downward turning head, causing significant depletion of multi head kinetic energy;RSIThe indicator quickly fell from the overbought range in the early stage to the neutral weak range, and the market completely switched from a unilateral upward trend to a volatile weak pattern, with strong pressure on the upward rebound The overall opening of the Bollinger Bands has converged, and the gold price has fallen from the upper band of the Bollinger Bands to the lower band of the middle band, with the first core support below being the lower band of the Bollinger Bands+Integer threshold4000; Upper Bollinger Bands4050-4060Becoming a short-term strong resistance range.

Resistance:4045~4050，4070~4085

Support:4015~4020，4000，3960~3970

Operation suggestion: rebound to4045-4050The pressure range is under pressure, and we can follow the trend to see a decline. The first downward target is4015Nearby, take a closer look4000Pass testing. If the entity directly falls below within the day4000Key support, bearish momentum will be further released, extending downwards in line with the trend3960-3970Frontline core defensive position.