邦达亚洲：日本央行加息预期重燃 dollar/日元承压收跌

瑞穗金融集团全球市场业务负责人Kenya Koshimizu周四接受采访时表示，考虑到持续的通胀和日元疲软，日本央行最快可能在3月再次上调基准利率，并可能在2026年内实施多达3次加息。 Koshimizu指出，由于日元走势疲软且通胀率持续高于日本央行的目标，“今年预计会有多达3次加息，下一次加息完全有可能在3Month or4月到来。”他认为目前市场存在许多积极因素，包括3%to4%的名义经济增长，以及首相高市早苗更清晰的政策战略。他补充道：“日本央行将根据这些经济改善情况调整货币政策。”

另外，美国至2month7Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week 22.7Ten thousand people, expected22.2Ten thousand people, previously valued by23.1Revised to 10000 people23.2万人。美国至1month31日当周续请失业金人数 186.2Ten thousand people, expected185Ten thousand people, previously valued by184.4Revised to 10000 people184.1万人。每周的失业救济申请人数往往会在节假日和恶劣天气前后出现波动，因为人们会暂时无法工作。较低的申请人数表明，在上周席卷全国的冬季风暴过后，企业和学校已基本恢复正常活动。 继前一时期受严冬天气影响导致失业救济申请人数激增之后，上周美国失业救济申请人数略有下降。美国至2month7Four week average of the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week 21.95Ten thousand people, previously valued by21.225Revised to 10000 people21.2510000 people.

The data that needs attention today is the Eurozone12月季调后贸易帐、欧元区第四季度季调后GDP季率修正值和美国1monthCPI年率未季调。

gold/dollar

黄金昨日大幅下挫，失守5000Pass and refresh4Trading day low, spot exchange rate trading at4950附近。除获利回吐对汇价构成了一定的打压外，美联储的降息预期降温也对黄金构成了一定的打压。此外，黄金在跌破5000关口的支撑后部分多单被迫止损也加剧了黄金的跌幅。今日关注5050Nearby pressure situation, supported below4850Near.


dollar/Japanese yen

dollar/The Japanese yen fluctuated and fell yesterday, refreshing11Trading day low, spot exchange rate trading at153.30附近。除日本央行再次干预汇市的担忧持续对汇价构成打压外，投资者对日本央行的加息预期也对汇价构成了一定的打压。不过，美联储的降息预期降温限制了汇价的下跌空间。今日关注154.00Nearby pressure situation, supported below152.50Near.

dollar/Cad

dollar/The Canadian dollar fluctuated upwards yesterday, with a slight daily increase. The spot exchange rate was traded at1.3620附近。除空头回补持续对汇价构成支撑外，意外表现强劲的美国非农就业报告降温美联储的降息预期也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。此外，供应担忧缓解crude oil价格大幅下挫也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。今日关注1.3700Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.3550Near.