Banda Asia: Good economic data performance The US dollar index closed slightly higher

According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday,10Monthly job vacancies from the previous month766Ten thousand slightly increased767Wan, higher than the median expectation of economists surveyed by the media. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of data for both months has been postponed. although10The monthly job vacancies have increased, but mainly driven by a few industries, including retail, wholesale trade, and healthcare. Healthcare has been the biggest source of employment growth this year. Meanwhile,JOLTSThe report shows that,10The number of monthly layoffs has increased to185Ten thousand, for2023The highest since the beginning of the year. The layoffs are mainly concentrated in the accommodation and catering service industry. This industry differentiation indicates that some employers are adjusting to a higher cost environment, which is partly influenced by US trade policies, while economic uncertainty persists. Other data also shows an increase in layoff announcements.

Additionally,Goldman Sachs stated that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to12At the monthly Federal Open Market Committee meeting, there was a third consecutive interest rate cut25One basis point, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to3.5%-3.75%However, this interest rate cut is expected to be accompanied by a "hawkish" signal, indicating that the threshold for further policy relaxation in the future has been raised. Goldman Sachs pointed out in a report that there are sufficient reasons for this interest rate cut. In terms of the job market, employment growth continues to be lower than the growth rate of labor supply, and the unemployment rate has risen for three consecutive months4.4%Multiple indicators of the tightness of the job market have generally weakened, and some alternative data shows that the number of layoffs has recently begun to increase, posing new downside risks. In terms of inflation, the cumulative impact of tariffs on inflation is approximately0.5Percentage point, excluding the impact of tariffs on core personal consumption expenditures(PCE)Inflation has dropped to around this year2.3%Expected to arrive2026In the first half of the year, it will further decline to2%Even if it includes the impact of tariffs,2026End of Year CorePCEInflation may also decrease2.2%The inflation risk continues to dissipate.

The data that needs to be monitored today include the quarterly rate correction of unit labor costs in the third quarter of the United States and the quarterly rate of labor employment wages in the fourth quarter of the United States. In addition, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision in the evening, which requires special attention.

USD Index

The US dollar index fluctuated upwards yesterday, with a slight daily increase and spot exchange rates trading at99.20Nearby. In addition to the continuous support of short covering for the exchange rate, investors' expectations of the Federal Reserve's decision or the release of hawkish signals are also important factors supporting the rise of the exchange rate. In addition, the good performance of economic data released by the United States during the period also provided some support for the exchange rate. Today's Focus99.70Nearby pressure situation, supported below98.70Near.

euro/dollar

The euro fluctuated and consolidated yesterday, with a slight decline in the daily chart. The current exchange rate is trading at1.1620Nearby. The sustained rebound of the US dollar index, supported by good economic data and the possibility of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, is the main reason for the pressure to weaken the euro. However, the good economic data from Germany during the period and investors' cooling expectations for the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have limited the room for a correction in the exchange rate. Today's Focus1.1700Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.1500Near.

pound/dollar

The pound fluctuated downwards yesterday, refreshing4Trading day low, spot exchange rate trading at1.3300Nearby. In addition to the main reason for the pressure on the pound to weaken, which is the rise of the US dollar index supported by the Federal Reserve's decision or the release of hawkish signals and good economic data, investors' expectations of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England have also exerted some pressure on the exchange rate. Today's Focus1.3400Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.3200Near.