Banda Asia: Weak economic data reignites expectations of interest rate cuts The US dollar index is under pressure and declining

The Bank of England maintains the benchmark interest rate overnight4.00%Unchanged, in line with market expectations. This has been since last year8Since the start of the interest rate cut cycle this month, the Bank of England has temporarily suspended the pace of consecutive interest rate cuts for the first time. The voting results show that,5People voted to keep interest rates unchanged,4People voted in favor of a rate cut (last meeting was...)7-2）. The Bank of England maintains interest rates with a slight voting advantage4%This move is12The monthly interest rate cut has laid the foundation. The Bank of England stated in its monetary policy report that,"The risk of greater inflation persistence has become less apparent, and the risk of weak demand to medium-term inflation has become more significant, resulting in a more balanced overall risk"The Bank of England stated that,9month3.8%The inflation rate"Maybe it's a peak"The latest forecast shows that the inflation rate will drop to early next year3.1%, from2027Stable since the second quarter of the year2%Near the target. The unemployment rate is expected to reach in the second quarter5.1%The peak value is higher than8Monthly forecast4.9%。

In addition, challenger companies have released layoff reports, while American companies10Announcement of layoffs in the month153074The number of people has almost tripled compared to the same period last year20The highest level in years is mainly due to layoffs in the technology and warehousing industries. Chief Revenue Officer of the companyAndy ChallengerIndicates that this is from2003Since the beginning of the year10The largest number of layoffs in a month, and the emergence of mobile phones that year also brought a similar impact. He said: "Some industries are adjusting after the recruitment boom during the pandemic, but at the same time, the popularity of artificial intelligence, slowing consumer and business spending, and rising costs have led companies to tighten their belts and freeze recruitment. Those who are currently laid off are finding it harder to quickly find new jobs, which could further exacerbate the weakness in the labor market. ”

The data that needs attention todayhaveGermany9Monthly export rate after seasonal adjustment, Canada10Monthly employment changes and the United States11Initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month.

USD Index

The US dollar index fluctuated downwards yesterday and fell100.00Pass and refresh4Trading day low, spot exchange rate trading at99.80Nearby. In addition to profit taking exerting some pressure on the exchange rate, the weak economic data in the United States during the period reignited the Federal Reserve12The expectation of interest rate cuts in the month has also exerted some pressure on the exchange rate. Data shows that the United States10The number of layoffs in the month is relatively high9The month has increased183%Today's Focus100.30Nearby pressure situation, supported below99.30Near.

euro/dollar

The euro fluctuated and rose yesterday, with a slight increase in the daily chart. The current exchange rate is trading at1.1540Nearby. In addition to providing some support for the exchange rate through short covering, the US dollar index reignited the Federal Reserve in weak economic data12The weakening under the expectation of monthly interest rate cuts is also an important factor supporting the rebound of the euro. However, the weak economic data in the Eurozone during the period limited the room for the exchange rate to rebound. Today's Focus1.1650Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.1450Near.

pound/dollar

The pound fluctuated upwards yesterday and recovered1.3100Gateway, spot exchange rate trading at1.3130Nearby. In addition to providing some support for the exchange rate through short covering, the US dollar index fell short due to weak economic data reigniting expectations of interest rate cuts100.00The Great Barrier is also an important factor supporting the rebound of the pound. During the period, the Bank of England's interest rate stability released a dovish signal, but its impact on the market was limited. Today's Focus1.3200Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.3050Near.