ATFXForeign exchange market: U.S.A12Monthly CorePCEThe data is coming, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be affected by...

today21:30， The US Department of Commerce will announce the United States12Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index, previous value is3.2%, expected3%Expected to decrease0.2One percentage point. At the same time, the United States will also be announced12Monthly nominalPCEAnnual rate of price index, previous value is2.6%Expectations will remain unchanged. the United StatesPCE数据经常出现在美联储会议纪要当中，对美联储货币政策调整起到至关重要的作用。由于PCE数据在月末公布，所以准确性较高，但也存在滞后性强导致的行情影响性弱的问题。上周五公布的美国一年期通胀率预期从3.1%Descend to2.9%, Decrease0.2Percentage points.1month11Published on12Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate, from4%Descend to3.9%, Decrease0.1One percentage point. Both forward-looking inflation rate indicators suggest that the United States12The inflation rate for the month will decrease, so market expectations12Monthly CorePCE数据也将下降，预计准确率较高。通胀率下降意味着高通胀正在降温，美联储将一定程度上失去维持高利率的依据，降息预期将再次升温，利空美元指数。

虽然存在降息预期，但美国的联邦基金利率（无风险利率）仍高达5.5%，相比全球大部分国家拥有极高的比较优势， 国际资金流向美元的趋势不会很快终止。我们观察到，美元指数在去年10Month to12月份贬值幅度近6%，当时的降息预期极为强烈。但是，今年以来，美元指数持续反弹，累计涨幅达到2.75%，吞没了前期跌幅的约一半。这印证了我们的判断：由于高利率的吸引力较强，美元指数即便出现趋势性贬值，也不会很快跌至100关口下方，期间会出现反复拉锯。

美债市场来看，8周国债收益率5.43%，3月期美债收益率5.41%，长期国债收益率低于短期国债收益率，出现倒挂，意味着美联储大概率会在八周到三个月之间降息一次。十年期美债收益率的走势曲线处于中长期下跌趋势中的反弹阶段，昨日开始，反弹有触顶回落迹象。截至今日16:00，美元指数盘中收出小阳线。考虑到债券收益率走势短期表现疲软，交易者需警惕美盘时段美指的下跌可能。


技术角度看，美元指数处于中长期下跌趋势下的反弹阶段，反弹波段的市价紧贴蓝色回归线运行，结构稳固，预计涨势还将持续一段时间。震荡指标KD的读数处于超买线上方，快慢线相互交缠，意味着行情可能在震荡筑顶。MACD指标的柱线处于零轴上方，但绝对值不断缩小，中短期的涨势力度有减弱迹象。综合来看，多数指标认为美元指数的反弹阶段有可能很快结束，只有回归线指标仍认为会继续上涨。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2024-01-26