ATFXInternational Market, Looking Forward to Major Events of the Week（1009~1013）

The data and event importance for this week, from high to low, are as follows: United States9monthCPI年率、巴以冲突、美国众议院议长选举。我们来逐一分析解读：


This Thursday20:30The United States Department of Labor will announce9Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate, previous value is3.7%, expected3.6%；9Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPI年率将于同一时间公布，前值为4.3%, expected4.1%。从机构预期来看，9月份美国高通胀问题将持续缓解，美联储11Month12月的加息预期降低，美元指数受冲击，非美货币及贵金属受提振。影响美国CPI数据走向的两大因素分别为石油和地产。美国9monthWTIfuturesAccumulated price increase8.54%, forCPIData has an enhancing effect.9The real estate sector of the US stock market performed poorly in the month, with a cumulative decline7.33%Market expectations are relatively pessimistic. fromWTIJudging from the trends in the real estate market, the United States9monthCPIThe annual rate data still remains variable and may be affected byWTIFutures prices rise due to the impact of rising prices. However, excluding the core impact of energy and food pricesCPIThe annual rate data is likely to experience a decrease in year-on-year growth rate as expected by institutions.


巴以冲突将会延续。上周六，巴勒斯坦武装组织向以色列境内发射多枚火箭弹，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡宣布，“以色列国民们，我们正处于战争状态。”截至目前，欧美主要国家纷纷表态支持以色列。巴以冲突再次出现的原因，或许和美国总统拜登致力于促成沙特与以色列恢复外交关系的努力有关。地缘政治问题会激发国际资金的避险情绪，gold受提振。由于以色列和巴勒斯坦地处OPEC产油聚集区，可能对全球石油供应造成负面影响，国际油价受提振。


本周三，美国众议院共和党议员举行会议，投票选举新的众议院议长。前任众议院议长麦卡锡由于通过了临时预算法案，受到共和党内强硬派反对，最终于10month3日以216Vote in favor210票反对的投票结果被罢免议长职位。美国的党派之争对于美国宏观经济构成负面影响，加重了市场人士对于美国将在今年四季度陷入衰退的预期，利空美元指数，利多贵金属。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-10-09