ATFXFutures market: People's Bank of China lowers reserve requirements25Where will the offshore RMB exchange rate go?

7month14On the th, the People's Bank of China announced:2023year9month15Lowering the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions on a daily basis0.25After this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions is approximately7.4%. The reduction of the reserve requirement ratio can enrich the liquidity of financial institutions, reduce their debt costs, and increase the supply of credit funds for the entire society. Lowering the reserve requirement means that the People's Bank of China's monetary policy is still loose, and the growing supply of RMB will have an impact on the offshore RMB exchange rate. Yesterday, influenced by the above news,USDCNHDaily closing positive, up0.25%, highest touch7.2970Points.


From a technical perspective,USDCNHLast FiveKThe line is three negative, one positive, and one cross star, showing a short-term downward trend. The moving average system is tangled and crossed, without clear reverse guidance, and tends to oscillate.MACDThe indicator is below the zero axis, but the absolute value of the bar line is relatively small, indicating that the current short-term trend is not significant.KDThe readings of the indicators are35/49The oversold warning line has not been reached, and there is still room for short-term decline. Overall,USDCNHThe short-term trend is volatile and bearish, but the long-term trend is significantly bullish, and it is expected to return to the upward trend after finding effective support.

From a fundamental perspective, according to data from the Bureau of Statistics,8monthCPIThe annual rate is0.1%Compared to previous values-0.3%There has been a significant improvement, but the absolute value is still low, and the problem of low inflation has not been completely overcome. Lowering reserve requirements is one of the means of loose monetary policy, and more impactful is the downward adjustmentLPRInterest rate.8In January, the People's Bank of China lowered its one-year termLPRinterest rate10Base point, but maintain5periodLPRThe interest rate remains unchanged. The loose monetary policy remains absolutely cautious and there has been no 'flood'. Based on this, although there is upward pressure on the offshore RMB exchange rate, the possibility of a sharp depreciation in the short term is unlikely. In addition, the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy is nearing its end, and once market expectations shift towards easing, the US index's rise will turn downward, providing a huge opportunity for offshore yuan appreciation.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-15