ATFXFutures Market: United States8monthCPIWill high inflation become the past tense due to the arrival of data?

today20：30The United States Department of Labor will announce8Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPI年率数据，前值为3.2%, expected3.6%； coreCPIThe annual rate is announced at the same time, with the previous value being4.7%, expected4.3%. nameCPI预期增加，因为其受到国际油价的显著影响。6Month to date,WTI累计涨幅超30%，布伦特crude oilIncrease exceeds28%，飙涨的能源价格大概率将推高8Monthly nominalCPI年率增速。核心CPI数据不受周期性波动的原油和粮食价格影响，已经持续四个月的下降趋势大概率将会延续。


From a technical perspective, the last five US dollar indicesK线虽然四阳一阴，但整体呈下跌形态，短线走势偏回调。MACD指标仍未阳柱线，但绝对值已经缩小，有可能本周翻绿。KDThe values of the indicators are78/79，已经在触及超买警戒线后回落，意味着短线股价存在下跌可能。需要提醒的是，最新K线尚未跌破均线系统，虽然回调开始，但随时可能结束，此时判断下跌波段来临仍存较大风险。

From a fundamental perspective, the United StatesGDP增速年率2.6%；最新CPIthe annual rate3.2%；失业率3.8%；基准利率区间5.25%~5.5%。综合来看，基准利率高于通胀率和GDP增速，企业和消费者的信贷需求受抑制；失业率低于5%的健康标准，劳动力市场需求依旧旺盛。大部分数据不支持“美国宏观经济即将硬着陆”的论断。货币政策角度看，如果今日晚间CPI数据整体走高，美联储在9month21日的利率决议极有可能宣布加息，美元指数将受提振。反之，美联储大概率永久停止加息，美元指数的根本支撑将消失，未来或有长期跌势。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-13