Gold price shock1930Blocked, next weekCPIData may help gold bulls usher in a "high light"...

In the New York market, gold prices rose as the US dollar fell from its high in nearly six months.

The latest released data shows that the United States7Monthly wholesale sales rate0.8%Much higher than expected0.2%, for2022year6The largest increase since the beginning of the month.

After data release, the US dollar indexDXYShort term decline approaching20Spotgoldnewspaper1928.12dollar/Ounces, intraday increase0.45%。


(Spot gold)30Minute trend chart)

　　COMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract Beijing Time9month8day21：58Instant trading within one minute2508Hand, total value of trading contracts4.84USD100mn

　　COMEXMost Active Gold Futures Contract Beijing Time9month8day22：00Instant trading within one minute2413Hand, total value of trading contracts4.65USD100mn

This week's strong US labor market data triggered concerns about rising interest rates, and the soaring yields of the US dollar and treasury bond bonds weakened gold prices. However, weak Japanese data and concerns about worsening tensions between China and the United States also boosted the safe haven demand for gold.

The rhetoric between Washington and Beijing continues to worsen, especially after reports suggest that China is demanding government officials stop using Apple(178.18, 0.62, 0.35%)iPhoneAfterwards, it stimulated some safe haven positions in gold.

The market is concerned that the resurgence of the Sino US trade war will bring more disruption to global trade, and some US lawmakers have also called for a comprehensive ban on technology exports to China.

It is also worth noting that the decreasing possibility of a US economic recession also dims the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset. But the deteriorating economic conditions in other parts of the world may still support demand for gold.

Friday's data showed that the growth of the Japanese economy in the second quarter was lower than initial estimates. Prior to this, China released a series of weak economic data, especially international trade and service industry activities.

Next week we will welcome the United States8monthCPIData, investors also need to pay attention to changes in market expectations. Currently, the market expects the US coreCPIThe year-on-year growth rate will slightly decrease to4.3%, previous value is4.7%。

Remaining concerns before the Federal Reserve's September meeting

The strong jobless claims and service industry price data released earlier this week have heightened concerns that the Federal Reserve will have more motivation to maintain high interest rates.

The US service industry data released on Wednesday was stronger than expected, indicating that notification pressure still exists. Recently, the US economic data has shifted from weak to stronger, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike and lowering expectations of an end to rate hikes. The US dollar has reached a six-month high and has stabilized105As always, gold still relies on data, and of course, the strong rise of the US dollar only overshadows gold prices.

According to market research tools,9The possibility of keeping interest rates unchanged at the monthly Federal Reserve meeting is93%, and11The possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again in the month exceeds40%。

On Thursday, the number of new applicants for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased1.3Ten thousand people, to21.6Ten thousand people, for2023year2month11The current week has reached a new low. As of the end of8month26The week of the day falls to16810000 people.

Although the market generally expects the central bank to stabilize interest rates at20Despite years of high inflation and a strong labor market, it is expected that the central bank will also maintain a hawkish stance to a large extent.

Given that higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of investing in non yielding assets, the prospect of a US interest rate hike is unfavorable for gold.