ATFXcurrencies0823The strong state of the US dollar index continues, with market prices approaching104Gateway

Global Exchange Market Summary——
Yesterday, the US dollar index rose0.27%, closing at103.61Point,
Euro depreciation0.48%Closing price1.0846Point;
Depreciation of the Japanese yen0.24%Closing price145.87Point;
GBP depreciation0.19%Closing price1.2733Point;
Depreciation of Swiss franc0.23%Closing price0.8805Point;
Overall, the US dollar index has entered a correction band, with most non US currencies appreciating except for the Japanese yen.

Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate——
2023yearFOMCVoting committee and Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsby said, "For9I haven't made up my mind yet about the interest rate action for the month, and currently it seems that this possibility (referring to a rate hike) definitely exists Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin said: If I am confident that inflation remains high and demand does not signal that inflation will decline, then there is reason to further tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates. The speeches of two key figures revealed that there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will9The signal of monthly interest rate hikes has strengthened the US dollar index.


Yesterday, the US dollar pointed out that it had exited the sessionVType reversal, lowest contact103.1Subsequently, an upward trend was initiated, with the highest price reaching103.72. From a technical perspective, Tuesday'sKOn the previous three trading days of the pairKThe formation of a line engulfs, and the professional term "piercing the head and breaking the feet" means that the main forces of the long and short markets are engaged in a battle, and the future market will choose the direction of the trend. As of today16:20The US dollar index has broken through yesterday's high and has chosen to move upwards, indicating that the technical trend of the US dollar index is biased towards bullish positions. Without any sudden negative news, it is expected that the US dollar index will break through this month104At the critical juncture, it is expected that the time and space leaders will suffer a serious blow.


Standard&Poor's downgraded the ratings of five regional banks in the United States. The reason is: lower profitability than peers, high unrealized asset losses, or significant exposure to commercial real estate. The term 'unrealized asset losses' mentioned may refer to a large amount of US Treasury assets held by commercial banks. Due to the fact that the Federal Reserve only took one year to adjust the benchmark interest rate0.25%Raise to5.5%The prices of US bonds in the secondary market continue to decline (while yields are rising). During the epidemic, commercial banks that bought a large amount of US bonds continuously declined their bond market value, ultimately resulting in floating losses, reducing their own liquidity and safety. It should be noted that as long as commercial banks do not sell US bonds and firmly hold them to maturity, floating losses will not be realized.

During the annual meeting of the Jackson Hole Central Bank from Thursday to Saturday this week, Powell will deliver a keynote speech, and international financial markets will hold their breath. If Powell expresses a biased view on the future US macroeconomic and Federal Reserve monetary policy, the US index will be boosted and US stocks will be under pressure; If Powell mentions the concept of "interest rate cuts", it means that the turning point of high interest rates is approaching and the US dollar may face a significant impact. From Powell's historical speech, it can be seen that he is a staunch hawk figure and the possibility of making "interest rate cuts" is not high. It is expected that the US Index will maintain a relatively strong performance during the annual meeting of the Jackson Hole Central Bank.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-08-23