2023Investor's Guide: From the Peak of the US Dollar to the "Blue Bird"

Feng Yuqing: China's past40Can the certainty centered on economic construction and guided by market development be re anchored. This is the crucial issue for every ordinary person of us. Past3If the year is summarized in one word, it is uncertain. The COVID-19 has brought about too many reversals, accidents and pains. It has added huge variables to our already difficult life, almost changing all our plans and expectations for life and the mode of operation of our human society. History has its regularity and contingency. If it is a historical contingency to say that COVID-19 has been plagued for three years, then2023Year is returning to the laws of history to seek certainty. The most important aspect is the certainty of economic life. From restrictions on the real estate industry to crackdowns on the internet and education industries, coupled with frequent apocalyptic lockdowns in the past year or two, almost all private enterprises have been severely affected. according toIMFData from China2022The annual economic growth is3.2% It may only reach the global average or be lower than the global average growth, which is40For the first time in years. IMF estimate2023The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in will have an impact on the economy, but the growth will accelerate to4.4%。 The World Bank's numbers are similar, predicting China2023The annual growth is4.5%Most mainstream international economic institutions predict that the Chinese economy will contract in the first quarter and rebound in the second quarter. In a recent research report, HSBC economists expect a contraction in the first quarter0.5%But2023The overall annual growth will be5%。