ATFXInternational Market, Looking Forward to Major Events of the Week（0807~0813）

The data and event importance for this week, from high to low, are as follows: United States7Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPI年率，欧佩克公布月度crude oil市场报告、美联储官员讲话。我们来逐一分析解读：


This Thursday20:30The United States Department of Labor will announce7Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate, previous value is3%, expected3.3%；7Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate, previous value4.8%, expected4.7%. Market expectation nominalCPIWill rise to3.3%Because7月国际油价大涨15.74%Driving a significant increase in inflation rate. Market expectation coreCPIDescend to4.7%，因为该数据不受能源和食品价格波动的影响，已经连续三个月下降，形成了明显趋势。假若数据公布值符合预期，表明美国通胀有抬头迹象，美联储在9月份再次加息的概率大增。受上周五非农数据爆冷影响，美指从高位102.6Fallback to101.74，最新市价运行于102附近。加息预期若得到强化，美指有可能再次冲击103关口，非美货币及gold白银或走贬。


This Thursday18:00to21:00，OPEC将公布月度原油市场报告，报告中对于原油供应和需求的统计数据，有助于市场人士判断国际油价未来走向。上周，沙特和俄罗斯同一天宣布石油减产相关消息，OPEC+主要成员国坚持提振油价的倾向性显著。有鉴于此立场，预计OPEC月报发布后，WTI、布伦特和迪拜油将受利好提振。上周公布的EIACrude oil inventory data for the Cushing region of Oklahoma, from3573.9The inventory of ten thousand barrels has been reduced to3448Ten thousand barrels, decrease125.9万桶。库存曲线已经从上升状态转为下降状态，预计在中期之内，WTI价格都将呈现走强之势。


This Monday20：30，美联储理事鲍曼将发表讲话；本周二20:15，2023yearFOMC票委、费城联储主席哈克就美国经济前景发表讲话；同一天20:30，2024yearFOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金就“应对美国紧迫的经济挑战”发表讲话。本周五04:15，2023yearFOMC票委、费城联储主席哈克就就业发表讲话。由于8月份处于7月美联储利率决议和9月美联储利率决议空档期，美联储官员不受“噤声期”限制，所以关键人物频频对外发表关于美国宏观经济和货币政策的看法。关注美联储官员的讲话，能够令市场人士更清楚的了解美联储的货币路径，对于9月份美联储是否加息，以及下半年加息次数的判断帮助较大。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-08-07