ATFXSummary Review0804：非农就业报告来袭，汇市或迎剧烈波动

美国非农就业报告每月发布一次，其中非农就业人口和失业率两项数据最受关注。7月季调后非农就业人口，将于今日20:30Published, the former value is20.910000 people, expected20Ten thousand people;7月失业率，同一时间公布，前值为3.6%，预期值持平。如果最终公布值全部符合预期，则数据变化不大，对汇市冲击较小。


昨日公布的至7month29日当周初请失业金人数，最新值22.7万人，略微高于前值22.1万人，与预期值持平。显示出7月美国劳动力市场表现稳定，波动性较低。中期来看，美国初请失业金人数出现高位回落特征，表明劳动力市场状况正持续改善。

Announced on Wednesday7monthADP就业人数，最新值32.4万人，大幅低于前值45.5万人，但高于市场预期的18.910000 people.ADP通常被看做非农就业报告的前瞻指标，但由于样本量远低于非农就业报告，所以前瞻准确性不高，不建议作为研判晚间数据走向的核心依据。

It should be noted that,6月份非农就业报告爆冷，导致美指一度跌破100Gateway.7月数据仍存超预期可能，一旦公布值低于20万人，可能再次引发美指大跌。国际市场一直担心高利率会导致美国宏观经济衰退，惠誉调降美国外币债务评级加重担忧情绪。非农就业报告是宏观经济是否衰退的敏感指标，当非农就业人口数据剧烈下降时，将引发美元抛压。


6Month, Manufacturing in the United StatesPMILatest value49, higher than the previous value46.3There are signs of recovery, but they are still in a state of contraction. Service industryPMILatest value52.4, lower than the previous value54.4There was a slight contraction, but still an expansion trend. Business Confidence Index46.4Compared to previous values46There has been a slight rebound, but it is still at a low level. Overall,6The confidence in the manufacturing, service, and industry sectors in the United States was mixed and there was no consistent trend in the month.6The monthly non farm employment report may be average, and the probability of new non farm employment is not much different from the previous value.

本周三，美国财政部表示，下周将标售长债1030亿美元，规模超过此前的960亿美元。三季度计划发债规模1万亿美元，规模超预期。失去债务上限阻力后，美国联邦政府债务急速扩张，单季度需支付利息总额或超1万亿美元。债务规模增大，短期内增加政府开支有利于经济复苏，长期由于债务杠杆过高，将有可能损害美元信用。

7month18日至今，美指累计涨幅超2.67%, highest touch102.86点。上行波段尚未结束，如果晚间非农就业没有大幅低于市场预期，预计美指仍将延续强势状态。欧元和英镑受制于俄乌问题，中短期内难以对美元形成显著威胁。昨日英央行利率决议，宣布加息25基点后，GBPUSDstay5分钟级别收长阴线，英镑短线贬值，表明英央行的紧缩货币政策对于美元的贬值不起到关键作用，欧央行紧缩货币政策作用同理。

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2023-08-04