Ultima Markets：【行情分析】英澳货币政策差异改变汇率趋势...

Today's Focus on Varieties--英镑兑澳元。

Fundamentally,昨日英国央行上调基准利率25基点，达到2008年以来最高的水平。利率上升意味着更高的借贷成本，这将导致许多房主每月有更多的抵押贷款支出。英国继续徘徊在衰退的边缘。最新澳联储的货币政策报告则暗示虽然暂停加息，但是未来依旧有15个基点加息的空间。

由于过去英央行面对高涨的通胀，货币政策明显更为鹰派，而澳联储货币政策则可能已经进入末期。这是英镑兑澳元自2023year2月以来不断升值的主要因素。但是目前英央行还在加息，这带来的不再是看多英镑反而是对于英国经济的担忧，而这时候市场对于澳联储未来峰值利率看涨，将导致对于澳元的潜在看多。

Technically,英镑兑澳元日线周期上结构呈现潜在的沃尔夫浪结构。但是目前裸K结构没有显示明确的看跌结构。

（英镑兑澳元日线周期，来源Ultima Markets MT4）

随机震荡指标在日线周期上也没有显示死叉空头的信号。但是值得警惕英镑兑日元接下来的多头趋势。

（英镑兑澳元4Hourly cycle, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

英镑兑澳元4小时上艾略特波浪结构暗示当前可能处于双锯齿反弹阶段。行情在确认空头趋势后有概率走出快速的下跌浪。

（英镑兑澳元1Hourly cycle, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

英镑兑澳元1小时周期上，正面临多空的关键节点。汇价快速下跌接近前期的突破价位一带。裸K结构上行情字8month2日形成了潜在筑顶头肩顶结构。行情若跌破1.9338颈线一带则行情空头概率加大。

（英镑兑澳元1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level1.94039，

1.94039Upward bullish, first goal1.94667Second objective1.95328

1.94039Under bearish, first target1.93373Second objective1.92745

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