Ultima Market：【行情分析】日央行既要也要 阻碍日元升值...

Today's Focus on Varieties--USD/JPY。

Fundamentally,上周五曾分享关于日央行货币政策的前瞻。政策利率确实如预期没有变动，YCC收益率曲线控制则出乎了市场的意料。虽然日央行对于YCC作出了灵活购买的变动，但是并未如预期直接上浮目标收益率。日央行一贯的既要也要态度让市场解读为鸽派不敢收紧货币环境。短期上市场在彻底消化日央行货币政策前，日元依旧处于贬值趋势中。

Technically,美元兑日元日线周期，上周五最终在前期关键的支撑位置止跌反弹，K线形态也最终形成长下影线。

USD/JPY daily cycle, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

昨日行情继续的高涨，涨破利率决议前的高点，则行情有极大概率开始要反转上行，在触及前期144一带价位前，行情延续下跌趋势的概率较小。

USD/JPY4Hourly cycle, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

4小时周期上，汇价目前上涨至上行通道上沿。波浪结构来看，内部明确的5波结构可以确认当前是驱动浪。但是否为大周期的上行驱动浪还需要今日突破上行通道线来确认。

USD/JPY1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

USD/JPY1小时周期上，65周期均线才此前走势中经常作为移动支撑位置出现。行情在昨日冲高回落后，极大概率在亚盘进入调整结构。随机震荡指标也正处于疲软阶段。等待行情能否在65周期均线或者23.6%一带斐波纳奇回撤位置止跌上行。

USD/JPY1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level141.975，

141.975Upward bullish, first goal143.252Second objective143.974

141.975Under bearish, first target141.264Second objective139.975

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