Yu Yue on Jin:7.25What do you think of the evening gold market? Analysis of the Latest Market Trends of Gold

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　　goldMarket trend analysis:



Tuesday（7month25日）美盘时段，现货黄金呈震荡走势，目前交投于1959dollar/盎司附近。尽管隔夜美元指数继续反弹，美债收益率上涨，美国股市持续上涨，导致黄金价格承压下跌，但俄乌紧张局势持续恶化，欧美6monthPMI数据加大了全球经济衰退的担忧，这些因素仍然为黄金提供避险支撑。在美联储议息会议临近的情况下，市场观望情绪增强，多空双方都表现谨慎。市场关注焦点仍然集中在美联储周三的利率决定，以及欧洲央行周四的利率决定。预计这两家央行都会进行加息。黄金对利率上升非常敏感，因为利率上升会增加持有无收益黄金的机会成本。因此，投资者需要警惕金价的震荡下行风险。


　　本周市场关注焦点主要在美联储议息决议上，预计会进行25个基点的加息，并关注其后续货币政策前景指引。同样，欧洲央行本次会议预计也会进行25个基点的加息，并关注其后续政策预期。这些因素可能导致市场震荡加剧，而市场对于加息预期的差异将是影响行情守住1950区间震荡的关键。除此之外，美国第二季度GDP数据也是本周关注的焦点，投资者需留意数据可能带来的市场动荡风险。

　　黄金目前仍处于震荡回撤的节奏中，经过四连阴回落自高点1987附近，下跌幅度达30美元。然而，由于1940-1950区间的结构特殊性，该区域的支撑强度值得参考。短期需要注意震荡杀跌反抽预期，特别是在连续阴线回落的情况下，非重大因素刺激情况下，行情放量反抽的难度较大。因此，在当前调整阶段，不必急于进场，而是应该等待更具性价比的位置。综上所述，黄金行情大概率将在1945USD to1970之间震荡。

　　黄金目前在日线走势上K线连续回落开始逐步击穿短周期均线，价格在触及到前期的支撑带附近之后走出一波反弹但是整体偏弱的技术形态暂时没有发生变化。4小时级别走势上目前短周期均线基本处于放平的状态，在短期走势上大概率还是维持个低位的震荡修复走势。小时级别走势上一波快速的反弹之后价格基本触及到前期的支撑带附近。整体节奏偏弱下跌。今日黄金操作思路上建议低多看涨为主，反弹高空为辅；上方关注1970Resistance, pay attention below1945Support for;

　　7.25黄金多空操作策略：建议反弹到1968-70Short selling, stop loss1975Take a look below1955一线附近；建议回调到1950-52Long, stop loss1944Look up1960-65一线附近；策略仅供参考，现价单以临盘为准！



　　crude oilMarket trend analysis:


　　7month25日（周二）美市盘中，美原油交投于78.38dollar/桶附近；油价周一攀升约3%至近三个月高点，因供应收紧、美国汽油需求上升、以及技术性买盘提振。由于原油市场趋紧的迹象盖过了美联储再次加息的前景，油价升至三个月高位，收于关键技术关口上方。美国基准原油价格收于200日移动均线上方，自去年8月以来，该均线一直构成强劲阻力。石油价格保持在该阈值以上可能会刺激更多的购买。同时，股市的风险情绪也提振了原油价格，目前股市的交易价格接近今年的最高水平。分析师表示，"随着需求达到历史高位，我们预计下半年将出现相当大的缺口，第三季缺口将接近20010000 barrels/Day."他补充说，该行预计到年底，布伦特原油价格将从目前的每桶略高于80美元升至每桶86美元。总体来看，镁股道指创六年来最长连涨纪录，供应趋紧和炼油厂停产，地缘紧张，加之亚洲需求乐观助力，油价多头强劲，维持强势上行观点，日内或站上80dollar/Barrel gate.

　　原油昨日强势上涨破高，日线中阳线收在高位，同时形成连阳向上突破。此前回撤是为了多头进一步破高蓄势，经过上周的整理蓄势，本周周初即放量上涨，昨日进一步刷新79.28高位，日线收得饱满继续看涨。且短线表现强势。4Before the hour chart74.50启稳后形成整理式单边上涨结构，依托布林道中轨的强势慢涨放量，昨日突破77.20高点，今日短线顶底转换。77.20即是支撑点。从修正的幅度来看，强势行情，回撤空间有限，以整理代替回落蓄势。再放量进一步走高。趋势看涨不变，就是进场做多的选择问题。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上建议以回踩低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注79.8-80.3Frontline resistance, short-term focus below77.5-78Frontline support.


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