ATFXcurrencies0719The US Index has rebounded after stopping its decline, and Bank of Japan Governor Watanabe Sobata reiterated his dove stance...

Global Exchange Market Summary——
Yesterday, the US dollar index rose0.05%, closing at99.95Point,
Euro depreciation0.09%Closing price1.1228Point;
Depreciation of the Japanese yen0.08%Closing price138.83Point;
GBP depreciation0.29%Closing price1.3035Point;
Swiss franc appreciation0.31%Closing price0.8576；
Overall, the US dollar index has appreciated slightly, with most non US currencies falling except for the Swiss franc.

Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate——


The rebound of the US dollar index was expected. Yesterday's increase0.05%Today (as of15:30）Increase in price0.11%Touching the highest point100.31. If closing at100Above the threshold, a rebound momentum is formed. The rebound in the past two days has been relatively small, indicating that the long selling force is only exploratory buying. Only by providing accurate bullish information on the news side may it stimulate a sharp rise in the US index.

The two data released yesterday require special attention:6Monthly retail sales rate5Monthly commercial inventory rate. The monthly retail sales rate can reflect changes in consumer demand,6Latest monthly value0.2%, lower than the previous value0.5%On the consumption level, there is a slight weakness. Commercial inventory can reflect potential production drivers, and when inventory is low, companies tend to increase capital and expand production.6Latest monthly commercial inventory rate0.2%, higher than the previous value0.1%, which is consistent with the expected value. The rising inventory level indicates an oversupply problem on the supply side.

U.S.A6monthCPIThe annual rate has dropped to3%Below, it means that there is a serious shortage of consumer demand, and the macroeconomy faces potential recession risks. Guided by recession expectations, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will not7month27Despite the announcement of interest rate hikes, the US dollar index still has the possibility of falling.


The inflation rates in the eurozone and the UK are still relatively high, and the logic of raising interest rates to curb high inflation remains valid. Several European Central Bank officials have publicly stated7We will raise interest rates once a month, but maintain a vague attitude towards the results of other interest rate resolutions in the second half of the year. For example, Bank of the Netherlands Governor Norte stated, "For the7As for the month, I believe it is necessary to raise interest rates7"Anything after the month, at most there is only a certain possibility, but it is by no means certain." A few days ago, members of the European Central Bank Management CommitteeJoachim NagelI have made similar comments before.

Considering that inflation rates in European countries are difficult to fall back to within a short period of time3%Within this, we believe that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are7After the monthly interest rate hike, there will be several interest rate hikes. The euro and pound will be boosted, and the US dollar index will experience medium-term suppression.

Although Switzerland is located in the hinterland of EuropeCPIThe annual growth rate is only1.7%The unemployment rate is1.9%Other economic indicators have shown stable and healthy performance. It is not surprising that the Swiss franc can appreciate against the US dollar. Actually,USDCHFCreated2015year1The lowest value since the beginning of the month, the appreciation of the Swiss franc is among the highest among all non US currencies.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo UedaG20At the meeting, it was mentioned that "every policy meeting we have will review this premise (there is still some way to go before stabilizing the inflation target). What I want to say is that unless this premise changes, the overall situation will remain unchanged.". This statement is a clich é and does not have a significant impact on market expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its negative interest rate policy for the long term.7month6From now on,USDJPYAccumulated decline nearly7%The Japanese yen has rarely seen a sustained appreciation trend against the US dollar. We expect that as the US dollar index enters a rebound phase, the yen's correction trend may surpass other non US currencies.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-07-19