Guide Metallographer:6.20Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices are expanding and falling, intensifying volatility

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(6month19day)Volatile closing price1957.64dollar/Ounces, highest price1958.55dollar/Ounces, lowest price1947.62dollar/Ounces, closing price1950.49dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Monday6monthNAHBReal estate market index recorded55Higher than market expectations51, previous value is50.


　　NAHBchief economist Robert Dietz表示，建筑商信心自年初以来持续逐步上升，美联储的紧缩周期接近尾声，这对未来的市场状况(就抵押贷款利率以及建筑商和开发商贷款的融资成本而言)也是个好消息。Dietz进一步指出，美联储和华盛顿的政策制定者必须考虑到，房屋建设状况对通胀前景和未来货币政策的重要性。他说，住房成本增长现在是通胀的主要来源，这种成本只能通过建造更多可负担得起的、可获得的住房来控制，包括出售、出租、多户和单户住房。通过解决供应链问题、熟练劳动力短缺问题，减少或消除排他性区划等效率低下的监管政策，政策制定者可以在抗击通胀方面发挥重要而急需的作用。


　　评论称，需求强劲、现有库存不足以及供应链效率的提高，帮助建筑商信心在11个月来首次转为“正值”。今天的数据录得55，这标志着建筑商信心连续第六个月上升，也是自2022year7月以来，信心水平首次超过50的中点。NAHBchairmanAlicia Huey表示，鉴于成屋库存水平较低，且供应链正在逐步改善，建筑商对市场状况持谨慎乐观态度。然而，在过去一年里，建筑商和开发商的贷款变得更加难以获得，这最终将导致地块供应下降，因为该行业正试图从周期低点扩张。


　　分析称，市场对于降息预期减弱乐观地解释为，“经济将保持坚挺，以至于没必要降息”。而随着投资者心理转向乐观，股票的买入对象也随之扩大。美国银行6月的机构投资者调查显示，64%的受访者预测美国经济将实现软着陆，而预计会出现深度经济衰退的“硬着陆”的呼声降至26%, compared to5月有所减少。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is26.8%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is73.2%； reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is22.0%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is64.8%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is13.2%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Germany5monthPPIMonthly rate


　　14:00Switzerland5Monthly trade account


　　16:00eurozone4Monthly adjusted current account


　　18:30Fed Brad delivers a speech


　　20:30U.S.A5Annualized total monthly construction of new houses


　　20:30U.S.A5Total monthly construction permits


　　23:45美联储威廉姆斯发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　日线级别：上周五黄金收报一根上影线长的十字K，1968下存在一定压制，日内回补影线后一旦承压，则还存在一定回测下跌空间，当前仍处于底部区间内运行，1940一线还是有横盘的支撑作用，而短期通道上轨阻力1960一线也暂时只是被刺破，并未站上，因此今日还需区间内运行，等待明确的站稳信号；也就是1960and1940看收盘价哪边能有效站稳，决定短期下一步的发展方向，是震荡式的慢下行调整延续呢，还是逐步底部企稳结束下跌调整；


　　小时线级别：黄金冲高回落，周一整体走势承压1960阻力，周二仍重点关注会否继续承压1960下，也要留意中轨处1957.5，能否进一步突破站稳，如果周二行情实体突破可能还有些反弹空间，上方趋势阻力1965下仍看压制；反之，若中轨无法站上，则此它作为承压，将压制下滑破新低；下方趋势通道支撑有两处：1847Frontline and1942一线，是回调下行的两个支撑目标点；而1940若再下去的话，就要时刻关注企稳信号、


　　6.20Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1952-1955Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1940-1935Nearby, break down and take a look1930frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1930-1932Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1940-1945Nearby, break down and take a look1950frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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