Guide Metallographer:6.16今日黄金走势分析，欧洲央行连续第八次加息

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(6month15day)Touching bottom, rebounding strongly and closing higher, opening price1955.79dollar/Ounces, highest price1959.50dollar/Ounces, lowest price1924.73dollar/Ounces, closing price1956.34dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Thursday's announcement from the United States to6month10Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week26.210000 people, higher than market expectations24.910000 people, the former value is26.1Ten thousand people; United States6月费城联储制造业指数录得-13.7Higher than market expectations-14, previous value is-10.4.U.S.A5月进口物价指数月率录得-0.6%, lower than market expectations-0.5%, previous value is0.4%。 U.S.A5Monthly retail sales rate recorded0.3%Higher than market expectations-0.1%, previous value is0.4%。


Analysis shows that the United States5月份零售额意外上升，显示出面对日益严峻的经济挑战，消费者需求依然保持韧性。数据显示，13个零售品类中有10个品类销售增长，建筑材料和汽车消费支出增加。尽管这些数据强于预期，但仍显示消费者需求较去年有所放缓。即使在物价和利率上升的背景下，美国人仍在继续消费，因为就业市场仍然充满活力，储蓄有待释放。美联储7月政策会议召开之前，销售数据将为美联储官员提供另一幅需求图景。可持续的家庭支出导致物价压力没有明显放缓。美联储昨晚公布的最新季度预测认为，经济增长和潜在通胀将更为强劲。


　　评论称，美国劳工部周四公布的报告证实了就业市场的韧性。该报告显示，截至6month10日当周，初请失业金人数经季节调整后为26.2万人，与前一周持平。初请失业金人数强于预期，部分原因是明尼苏达州最近的政策变化，使得非教学教育人员有资格在暑假期间领取州失业救济金。该报告显示，在截至6month3日的当周，续请失业金人数增加2Ten thousand people, to177.5万人。按历史标准衡量，续请失业救济人数仍处于较低水平，因为一些失业者可能很容易就能找到工作，4月份每1.8个职位空缺对应一个失业者。此外，尽管5月份失业率升至3.7%of7个月高点，但以历史标准衡量，这一数字仍然很低。


　　美国前财长萨默斯表示，美联储决策者本周略显矛盾的行动似乎受到其内部政治的影响。“我觉得美联储的行动有点令人不解，”萨默斯在接受采访时表示。萨默斯称，美联储虽然提出不加息的论证，但与年底前再加息两次的展望且提高增长预测不一致。萨默斯称，这次会议除了有对经济形势一致和连贯的解读，感觉也受到美联储内部政治动能的左右。这点略为令人不安。萨默斯表示，就他自己而言，鉴于美国经济有力的证据，美联储可能必须保持政策趋于克制的姿态。


Eurozone:


　　周四公布的欧洲央行利率决定如期加息25Basis points(连续第八次加息)。


　　欧洲央行货币政策声明显示，下调今明两年经济预期，预计2023Annual growth0.9%,2024Annual growth1.5%,2025Annual growth1.6％。预计通胀将在太长时间里维持过高水平，潜在通胀仍然强劲，上调未来三年通胀预期。将确保利率达到足够限制性的水平，暗示未来还会进一步加息。2023year6月底前每月缩表150亿欧元，自7月起停止资产购买计划下的再投资计划。


　　欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，七月很有可能加息，没有考虑暂停加息；尚未完成加息任务，在加息方面仍有进一步的空间。劳动力市场仍然是一个强劲的支撑来源；强劲的劳动力市场对增长构成上行风险。短期内经济增长可能仍然疲弱；预计今年后期经济增长将加强；增长前景存在不确定性。对通胀前景不满意；通胀存在高度不确定性；将确保利率水平达到能够实现2%The level of.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate maintained at5.00%-5.25%The constant probability is33%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is67%； reach9The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is28.4%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is62.2%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is9.4%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　11:00Bank of Japan announces interest rate resolution


　　14:30日本央行行长植田和男召开发布会


　　17:00eurozone5monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


　　19:45Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech


　　20:30Canada4Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　21:00Federal Reserve Barkin delivers a speech


　　22:00U.S.A6Expected monthly and one-year inflation rate


　　22:00U.S.A6Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨天整体走势探底回升，经过亚欧盘的破位下跌之后，美盘在消息面利多的情况下走出V型反转，昨晚在上破1942之后就不能空了，我们也是及时的调整思路看涨，晚间数据前提示大家在1930做多，成功获利！目前日线方面再次回归到了震荡区域，能否有效上破形成突破走势还不确定，只能说目前短线金价是偏强势的，日内先顺势低多，观察阻力的情况。下午1956多成功获利！


In theH4周期中，黄金连阳走高，上轨高点还没有试探，所以目前没有开口，看涨需要先看上轨高点1968/1970的得失，再看布林是否开口，因此，日内的压制点也相对较为明确，第一高点关注1970，第二高点关注1980，周五时间段内，预计会延续强势，冲高至压制点后回落。小周期决定具体交易的进出，周四大涨至1960后第一波回落至1951后无力，实际支撑在1950，因此，今天强弱的关键点在1950，而午夜再次上涨回落的支撑在1955，所以，强势支撑在1955，那么，实际交易可以放在1955perhaps1950之上做多，具体再结合盘中形态来看。高位压制点是否可以做多则需要在美盘考虑。


Golden Operation Strategy:1950-55Multiple batches, stop loss1945, Objective1965-70，上破持有（仅供参考，具体实盘为准）


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