Guide Metallographer:6.5Today's gold trend analysis shows a significant increase in non farm employment in the United States...

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(6month2day)Significantly lower, opening price1981.91dollar/Ounces, highest price1983.27dollar/Ounces, lowest price1960.83dollar/Ounces, closing price1961.87dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Friday5Record of non agricultural employment population after seasonal adjustment33.910000 people, higher than market expectations1910000 people, the former value is25.3Ten thousand people; United States5Monthly unemployment rate recorded3.7%Higher than market expectations3.5%, previous value is3.4%。


Comments said that after the release of the non farm report, the yield of US treasury bond bonds rose. It will be interesting to observe whether the conditional selling can continue after the data has just been released. Overall employment growth and revised data are causing waves, with weak wage performance. At present, we have not seen the market fully recover7Monthly interest rate increase25A basis point expectation, while6The monthly suspension of interest rate hikes is still the basic situation, and it is expected to increase interest rates9Basis points. Many factors depend onCPIAnd how hard Fed hawks can push their claims forward.


Deutsche Bank analyzed that the United States5The monthly employment report shows a mixed picture. Although employment growth33.9Wan, surprising, but other details indicate an economic slowdown. In addition to strong job creation, data shows that the labor market is cooling down. This allows the Federal Reserve to6month13/14OfFOMCStay on the sidelines during the meeting, at least temporarily suspend interest rate hikes. Then, the Federal Reserve can wait and observe the development of things, and if necessary, tighten more in the future.


Federal Reserve SpeakerNick TimiraosThe article states that the non farm payrolls report released on Friday has hardly changed the Fed's debate on whether to maintain interest rate stability this month. But this increases the number of officials who6The possibility of combining the suspension of monthly interest rate hikes with a more inclined interest rate hike later this year, and the continued strong labor market may lead to officials raising interest rates more than expected. The US Department of Labor stated on Friday that,5New employment positions added in the month33.9Ten thousand, the corrected data shows that,3Month and4Monthly job creation9.3Ten thousand, indicating strong labor demand. But another survey targeting households shows that,5Employment decreases in the month, and the unemployment rate rises3.7%. At the same time, the report shows that the tight labor market has not yet led to an acceleration in salary growth. Overall, these data highlight the challenge faced by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to unite the Fed's interest rate setting committee around the idea of "skipping" rate hikes this month, which were already supported6Officials who raise interest rates in the month may be more convinced of the necessity of raising rates.


Former US Treasury Secretary Summers stated that if the Federal Reserve chooses to remain silent at this month's policy meeting, then it should7Monthly interest rate increase50Maintain an open attitude based on one basis point. Economic overheating has once again become the main risk that the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention to. He stated that the announcement made on Friday5The overall monthly employment data is strong. Although the unemployment rate has increased from4Of3.4Ascend to3.7%However, there may be "noise" in the unemployment data obtained from resident surveys, especially during school holidays5month.


US President Biden Local Time6month3A bill on the federal government's debt ceiling and budget was signed on the day of the signing, officially putting it into effect, temporarily avoiding the US government from falling into debt default. The bill temporarily suspends the effectiveness of the debt ceiling until2025At the beginning of the year, and2024Fiscal year and2025Restrict expenses for the fiscal year.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is74.7%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is25.3%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is32.1%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is53.5%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is14.4%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Germany4Monthly adjusted trade account


　　14:30Switzerland5monthCPIMonthly rate


　　15:50France5Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　15:55Germany5Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　16:00eurozone5Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　16:30eurozone6monthSentixInvestor confidence index


　　16:30britain5Monthly service industryPMI


　　17:00eurozone4monthPPIMonthly rate


　　21:45U.S.A5monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value


　　22:00U.S.A5monthISMNon manufacturingPMI


　　22:00U.S.A4Monthly factory order rate


　　22:00U.S.A4Monthly rate of durable goods orders


Technical analysis of gold:


Affected by the good performance of US employment data, gold prices have once again closed sharply lower, and remained short-term on Friday1974-1983The range fluctuated, and the gold price did not form a range change during the Asian and European trading period. During the US market period, with the release of US non farm employment data, the short-term decline in gold prices has expanded. In the early stages of the US market, gold prices have remained volatile and gradually stabilized1962Frontline. Saturday morning gold prices get rid of1961The support level once again broke through and went down, stabilizing gently and closing at1948frontline(Gold prices rebounded fruitlessly and returned to the low range,1957Organize the trend below and maintain a bearish guidance reference.). The physical column recorded on the daily line is relatively strong with a negative line, and the overall daily moving average shows a narrowing pattern. The short-term gold price breaks through and falls again, breaking free from the pressure level price range supported by the technical indicators of the daily moving average, and showing a long-term top reversal guidance reference. The four hour line shows a strong decline in short-term gold prices, once again forming a pair of four hours60The daily moving average has broken down, and the current trend of volatility has stabilized below the pressure level of the four hour technical indicators. The short-term technical indicators are arranged in a downward cross pattern, maintaining a reference for short-term short period bearish guidance. Gold prices rebounded fruitlessly and returned to the low range, maintaining a cautious approach to operating in the short range during the day.


Daily operating range:


Multiple orders:


Radical1935Frontline participation, stop loss3-5Point, profit target1941upper


Robust1927Frontline participation, stop loss3-5Point, profit target1934upper


Empty order:


Radical1953Frontline participation, stop loss3-5Point, profit target1946Below


Robust1961Frontline participation, stop loss3-5Point, profit target1955Below