Song Yiyang:6.5Does gold turn the tide and begin to decline? Trend analysis

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Good afternoon everyone, new week. Last Friday's wave of non-agricultural impact was a foregone conclusion. During the evening US trading session, it first followed a downward trend, then rebounded slightly, and then continued to break down, falling30US dollars. Believe it, this has given many bears hope again, and they have already dropped to the lowest point so far1944Location of.

In addition, after the data was released, the US dollar index continued to rise, rising to104.1And there is also a rise in US bond yields,10The yield of one-year US Treasury bonds once pushed up3.7%Increase within the day10One basis point. From this, it can be seen that the US economy is not as bad as we imagine, and this month's interest rate resolution will also be announced, which will have an impact ongoldHow to develop, we still need to continue to layout.

In terms of basic information, let's finally talk about the results of the US debt problem. The US President signed the debt ceiling bill to temporarily avoid the US government from falling into debt default. The bill suspends the effectiveness of the debt ceiling until2025At the beginning of the year, and2024Fiscal year and2025Restrict expenses for the fiscal year.

There is also the issue of interest rate resolution that we are most concerned about this month. The Federal Reserve's spokesperson stated that the non farm report has not resolved the internal interest rate dispute within the Federal Reserve, and the interest rate level may exceed expectations. We know that the non farm payroll data released this time is very positive for the US dollar. Although the unemployment rate has increased, a more intuitive reflection is that the people laid off by enterprises have all moved to other employment positions. This is also rare, as there is such a perfect connection between the unemployment rate and the number of employed individuals. Since the current labor market is still hot, the economy has not cooled down, and inflation levels remain high, it is difficult not to let me predict. The Federal Reserve6Will the action of suspending interest rate hikes on a monthly basis be implemented.

This week, which is also a critical period, data will still be an important reference before the Federal Reserve releases its resolution. Tonight will be about the United States5monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value, United States5monthISMNon manufacturingPMI, as well as the United States4Monthly factory order rate data released. At present, these data performance capabilities are still good, among which the service industry is sufficient to demonstrate a positive state of economic development in the United States in the previously released initial results. So, it is not feasible to blindly observe the rise of gold now, so we will continue to observe tonight's data situation.

Continuing to lay out today's short-term outlook, gold has shown a fluctuating upward trend last week, reaching a peak of1983Location. Affected by non-agricultural factors, it has broken down to1944Low point, currently1943It can be seen as a support point for the short term of gold.

Based on technical indicators, the upper resistance level given by the golden ratio line can be observed1953Next is the location of the1960Nearby. But combined withRSILook,1In the short term of the hour, gold has reached the bottom of the oversold zone. After morning fluctuations, it finally has the initial form of a golden cross,MACDThe fast line is also gradually moving upwards, forming a new golden cross to see the gold move towards the resistance level.

At present, gold is starting to reverse its direction, and the bearish power is once again strengthening. Today, we will see if gold can break through the resistance level. If the upward momentum is weak, we can prepare for short selling at night.

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