Guide Metallographer:5.23今日黄金走势分析，债限谈判乐观，鹰派发...

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking ahead to today and Tuesday(5month23day)：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘承压回落力量，继续走低，美元指数及美债收益率趋于走强，仍对其产生压力，另外，目前就债务上限问题进行的讨论富有成效，近日有可能达成协议的观点仍在减弱市场避险情绪。


　　再加上昨日美联储布拉德表示美联储将不得不提高政策利率，今年或许还需要再加息50个基点。预计今年还将加息两次的观点，也令市场产生美联储利率将破6的预期。同样增强了美元反弹动力，和黄金的承压预期。日内来看，金价仍有望再探上周低点或更低位置。


　　晚间将重点关注美国5monthMarkit制造业和服务业PMI初值以及美国4Annualized total monthly sales of new homes(10000 households), USA5月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数等。预期偏向利好金价的概率较大，但如支撑力不能够使得今日收线重回60日均线上方，则本周后市仍将继续面临回落为主。


　　基本面上，随着美国总统拜登和共和党议长麦卡锡在6月美国债务违约的最后期限前就债务上限协议继续进行谈判，也令市场认为最终仍将达成协议，而推动美元指数维持走强，也令黄金近期不太可能反弹突破2000The US dollar barrier;


　　与此同时，由于美联储几位官员的言论，称可能必须将利率提高到6%以上，才能让通胀率回到美联储2%的目标，让非孽息黄金受到了鹰派言论的压力。


　　整体上，市场正看到债务上限达成协议，同时美联储推迟降息，这最终将对美元有利，并对金价造成看跌压力。也令黄金市场暂时仍未摆脱回调的风险。


　　不过，从市场定价来看，目前交易员们认为，美联储6月暂不加息的可能性约为83%。市场还预计，由于通胀将走低、经济料将放缓，美联储可能会在年底前将利率下调约50Basis points.


　　再者，上一次美国因债务上限争论而如此接近违约是在2011年夏天，当时也是民主党总统、参议院和共和党领导的众议院。国会最终避免了违约，但美国的AAA信用评级首次被下调，引发股市大跌，并在一个月后将金价推高至1920USD.


　　所以，不管6月加息与否，以及债务达成协议，金价都将在进入第三季度或第四季度将重新获得看涨动力。


　　各投资者和交易商，在等待不确定性和不知道什么时候开始降息的观点前景上，最好的做法，就是尽可能的先拉低价格，以扩大未来的反弹利润和降低自己的持仓风险。所以，金价在进入第四季度前，仍有走低回调的风险。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:15France5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　15:30Germany5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:00eurozone5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:00eurozone3Monthly adjusted current account


　　16:30britain5Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


　　16:30britain5Monthly service industryPMI


　　21:00Federal Reserve Logan delivers a speech at the seminar


　　21:45U.S.A5monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value


　　21:45U.S.A5monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value


　　22:00U.S.A4Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　22:00U.S.A5Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold fluctuated and recovered to1971Nearby, the market rebounded in the afternoon, and the pressure will be measured again at the high point1983On the first line, although the European market was under heavy pressure during the trading period, it experienced a wave of decline and then fell back to the gap position of last Friday's short jump1969On the first line, the current market has rebounded again.


Looking back at the trend of gold throughout the day, its high and low points are in line with the expected high, that is, above1983-85As the first resistance of the short line1972-69The gap also plays a key supporting role in the short term, and the market is temporarily fluctuating in this area. Although it is in line with expected judgments, the frequency of repeated changes in the rhythm between long and short is relatively high, indicating that the market is still uncertain about the short-term direction, which is a process of digestion and decision-making.


For the day, from the four hour price to the short-term moving average, which did not break on Friday, the key point for the day is still to pay attention. The breaking of the moving average should keep up, and the upper level should test the online and medium-term counter pressure here. However, the system is still in a long rebound, and there is currently no sign of a vacancy. However, breaking the short-term moving average is a fall and a correction of volatility, at least there will be no unilateral downward trend, and breaking it will lead to counter pressure, The suppression of the online market is also a fluctuating trend. Therefore, if gold enters again after a four hour wait and then turns empty, it will temporarily focus on the above regional fluctuations. However, such fluctuations also bring great uncertainty risks to the short-term market, that is, there is a continuation of a wave of upward trend in short-term technology, as can be seen1990-92Nearby, even foreseeable2000Nearby, but if such fluctuations drag on for a longer time, it indicates a lack of confidence among bulls. The role of last Friday's positive line will also be greatly weakened, and it will be more difficult to achieve a reversal trend in the later stage, which can only be seen as a short-term rebound pressure measurement process. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1983-1985Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1960-1950Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.23Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1982-1985Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1975-1965Nearby, break down and take a look1960frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1960-1963Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1970-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)