Guide Metallographer:5.23Today's gold trend analysis, US debt ceiling negotiations remain optimistic...

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(5month22day)Close down again, opening price1977.58dollar/Ounces, highest price1982.38dollar/Ounces, lowest price1968.74dollar/Ounces, closing price1972.28dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Federal Reserve official Kashkari said that the US job market is strong and we are on the path to easing inflation. Interest rates may need to be further raised from now on. But it may not be as radical and rapid as before. Although the most severe period of pressure in the banking industry seems to have passed, history shows that the possibility of more problems cannot be ruled out, and it is too early to declare that all problems have been resolved.


The Federal Reserve has stated that there is a lag in its policy actions. Willing to wait "for a period of time" to observe the performance of the economy. The Federal Reserve has implemented many tightening measures in the past year and does not want to anticipate any form of economic slowdown.


The Federal Reserve's Barkin said it is still searching for evidence that inflation is steadily decreasing. Not prejudging6Monthly meeting results.


The Federal Reserve's Dai Li said she sees some signs that the previously strong job market is slowing down. When the unemployment rate is below4%In the case of2%Inflation is an 'historical anomaly'. Unemployment rate exceeds4%It is also completely reasonable. I want to observe whether the tightening of monetary policy has affected the economy. Refusing to disclose whether the Federal Reserve6What actions should be taken at the monthly meeting.


The Federal Reserve has stated that it is expected to raise interest rates twice this year. The Federal Reserve will have to raise policy interest rates and may need to raise them again this year50Basis points. Inflation is still too high, which is one of the reasons for further interest rate hikes. The remaining time of this year and2024The basic situation of the year will still maintain relatively slow growth, and the possibility of an economic recession has been "exaggerated".


Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, McCarthy, stated that we had a fruitful discussion. But we haven't reached an agreement yet. Yes(Regarding the debt ceiling)Reach an agreement. We have seen the possibility that the debt ceiling agreement framework can take shape. I will meet with Biden every day until an agreement is reached. Both parties must reach a debt agreement this week to avoid the earliest possibility of6month1The catastrophic US default that occurred on the day.


US President Biden stated that he held a productive meeting with House Speaker McCarthy to discuss the need to avoid default. Once again, breach of contract is impossible.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day1.15Tons, current position is943.89Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is71.5%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is28.5%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is61.7%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is34.4%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is3.9%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:15France5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　15:30Germany5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:00eurozone5Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value


　　16:00eurozone3Monthly adjusted current account


　　16:30britain5Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


　　16:30britain5Monthly service industryPMI


　　21:00Federal Reserve Logan delivers a speech at the seminar


　　21:45U.S.A5monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value


　　21:45U.S.A5monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value


　　22:00U.S.A4Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　22:00U.S.A5Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold fluctuated and recovered to1971Nearby, the market rebounded in the afternoon, and the pressure will be measured again at the high point1983On the first line, although the European market was under heavy pressure during the trading period, it experienced a wave of decline and then fell back to the gap position of last Friday's short jump1969On the first line, the current market has rebounded again.


Looking back at the trend of gold throughout the day, its high and low points are in line with the expected high, that is, above1983-85As the first resistance of the short line1972-69The gap also plays a key supporting role in the short term, and the market is temporarily fluctuating in this area. Although it is in line with expected judgments, the frequency of repeated changes in the rhythm between long and short is relatively high, indicating that the market is still uncertain about the short-term direction, which is a process of digestion and decision-making.


For the day, from the four hour price to the short-term moving average, which did not break on Friday, the key point for the day is still to pay attention. The breaking of the moving average should keep up, and the upper level should test the online and medium-term counter pressure here. However, the system is still in a long rebound, and there is currently no sign of a vacancy. However, breaking the short-term moving average is a fall and a correction of volatility, at least there will be no unilateral downward trend, and breaking it will lead to counter pressure, The suppression of the online market is also a fluctuating trend. Therefore, if gold enters again after a four hour wait and then turns empty, it will temporarily focus on the above regional fluctuations. However, such fluctuations also bring great uncertainty risks to the short-term market, that is, there is a continuation of a wave of upward trend in short-term technology, as can be seen1990-92Nearby, even foreseeable2000Nearby, but if such fluctuations drag on for a longer time, it indicates a lack of confidence among bulls. The role of last Friday's positive line will also be greatly weakened, and it will be more difficult to achieve a reversal trend in the later stage, which can only be seen as a short-term rebound pressure measurement process. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1983-1985Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1960-1950Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.23Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1982-1985Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1975-1965Nearby, break down and take a look1960frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1960-1963Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1970-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)