Guo Shengxin:5.12黄金原油晚间行情分析及独家操作建议

　　goldMessage analysis: Friday(5month12day)In the early morning trading of the Asian market, spot gold rebounded slightly after yesterday's sharp decline, and the gold price is currently reported2014dollar/Around ounces. Affected by the soaring US dollar, gold prices fell sharply on Thursday and briefly touched2011.09dollar/The weekly low of ounces. The price of gold remains unchanged2000dollar/Above the ounce level. Stimulated by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the US dollar has strengthened against most major currencies,ICEThe US dollar index rose on Thursday0.62%, to102.07. A stronger US dollar will put pressure on the price of gold denominated in US dollars. Spot gold closed Thursday2014.80dollar/Ounces, down14.99USD or0.74%The highest touch in the plate2041.22dollar/Ounces, lowest touch2011.07dollar/ounce.

　　当地时间周四，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，尽管通胀有所放缓，但仍然过高，这意味着美联储将不得不在更长的时间内维持趋紧的货币政策。卡什卡利在密歇根州马奎特市北密歇根大学的一次活动中表示，有一些证据表明，高通胀“正在下降，但到目前为止，它一直相当持久——这意味着我们将不得不在较长一段时间内保持高通胀。”美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，美国4Monthly consumer price index(CPI)同比增幅放缓至4.9%, consecutive times10次下降，低于分析师预估的持平于3Of5%。但美国4monthCPIMonth on month growth0.4%, higher than3Of0.1%。数据并显示，美国4月剔除能源和食物价格的核心CPI同比增幅从3Of5.6%Descend to5.5%，符合预期；美国4Monthly CoreCPI环比增幅持平在3Of0.4%，也符合预期。卡什卡利称：“通胀有所下降，但仍远高于我们2%的目标水平。我们看到全国范围内的工资增长有所放缓，但情况好坏参半。”卡什卡利指出，通胀的顽固程度令政策制定者感到意外，这些数据将他推向政策立场偏向于鹰派的一方。卡什卡利是今年联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)The committee members with voting rights belong to the hawkish camp among current Federal Reserve officials.

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金昨日探高回落收低，本周的节奏主势是震荡，不过短线则是伴随反复的冲高回落，延续前一日的拉锯震荡走法，高低点集中在美盘时段，先扬后抑，整体保持震荡下跌，反弹高点在下移。昨日最高反弹2041First line pressure. The conversion from high to low was in line with expectations, and yesterday's intraday trading was directly in line with expectations2040Short selling on the first line2018-2015Complete bagging. Daily double negative closing small negativeKThe line is still at a high level and there are signs of further downward pressure in some areas, but the short term is accompanied by repeated changes. Today, the week concludes. As it closed lower yesterday. The interval is moving down. Today's Focus2000The integer level gains and losses, and only by failing this position can we open up the downward space, otherwise the oscillation rhythm will not change.

Gold4Hour cycle at periodic high point2048The above recorded Great Yin constructs a bearish engulfment form, gold4The single negative line of the hour chart fell, breaking the low point of the range at the beginning of the week2020-2022.This level is converted into a small level of resistance, and if it weakens further today, this level in the Asian and European markets will be the first resistance point and also today's empty point. See further potential to break through yesterday's low point and test it2000Gate, hourly chart confirmed by late night backdraft2022There are still obstacles nearby. But there was no further decline. Short line or oscillating rhythm.1Hour cycle at resistance level2040Nearby, a bearish swallow pattern was recorded in the Great Yin, with an overall dome shape. In the future, the overall trend can be seen as downward. Pay attention to the support trend line below1990支撑位！

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

　　5month12日（周五）欧市盘中，美原油交投于70.31dollar/桶附近；油价周四下跌约2%至一周低点，因为美国债务上限的政治僵局激起了对全球最大石油消费国经济衰退的不安情绪，而美国初请失业金人数的增加和亚洲经济数据的疲软也对油价造成打击。美国财政部长耶伦敦促国会提高31.4万亿美元的联邦债务限额，并避免发生前所未有的违约，从而引发全球经济衰退。目前美国债务上限的不确定性，最近可能促使大部分石油行业出现信贷紧缩的银行业问题，以及出现经济衰退的持续强烈可能性，仍然是石油市场的重大障碍。总体来看，美国债务上限的不确定性增加油价上行压力，美国初请失业金人数升至一年半新高增加了经济衰退的担忧情绪，油价短线或承压；油价近期交易需要关注就美国债务上限问题下周将举行的会议，不确定性风险较大，投资者需谨慎。

　　原油昨日转换下跌，日线中阴线收低回落，久攻73.50-73.80突破未破，昨日承压转换回落，同时跌破了低点71.30.冲高回落蓄势破低，打破了持续性的反弹结构，日线级别：震荡下跌；MACD死叉信号延续，油价的低位反弹在50%回撤位附近受阻后承压，并回落至5Daily moving average10Daily moving average and38.2%回撤位下方，短线下行风险有所增加，若失守5month4日干69.80下方，可能会重新下探3Monthly low point64.10Nearby support; In the short term,23.6%Retreat position68.49、3month24Daily low point66.81附近也还分别存在一些支撑。由于KDJ金叉信号仍在，在失守69.80前，仍不能排除多头重拾反弹走势的可能性，上方10Daily moving average resistance71.62Nearby,5Daily moving average resistance72.18附近，若能收复该位置，则削弱短线看空信号，动能还需顶破4month28Daily low point73.92附近阻力，才能扭转短线下行风险。综合来看，今日原油短线操作思路上郭晟鑫建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注72.5-73.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below69.5-69.0一线支撑，行情实时变化，