Guo Shengxin:5.12 Analysis of the Gold and Crude Oil Market

　　goldMessage surface parsing:

Friday(5month12day)In the early morning trading of the Asian market, spot gold rebounded slightly after yesterday's sharp decline, and the gold price is currently reported2014dollar/Around ounces. Affected by the soaring US dollar, gold prices fell sharply on Thursday and briefly touched2011.09dollar/The weekly low of ounces. The price of gold remains unchanged2000dollar/Above the ounce level. Stimulated by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the US dollar has strengthened against most major currencies,ICEThe US dollar index rose on Thursday0.62%, to102.07. A stronger US dollar will put pressure on the price of gold denominated in US dollars. Spot gold closed Thursday2014.80dollar/Ounces, down14.99USD or0.74%The highest touch in the plate2041.22dollar/Ounces, lowest touch2011.07dollar/Ounces. We have seen a slowdown in wage growth nationwide, but the situation is mixed Kashkari pointed out that the stubbornness of inflation surprised policy makers, and these data pushed him towards a policy stance biased towards hawks. Kashkari is the Federal Open Market Committee of this year(FOMC)The committee members with voting rights belong to the hawkish camp among current Federal Reserve officials.

Analysis of Gold Technology:

Gold1The hourly downward trend line continues to suppress bullish gold, and the moving average has started to cross downward. According to the nature of recent market trends, the strength of the rebound after each decline will not be small, and it may even give people the illusion of a reversal. Therefore, it is normal to rebound more than ten US dollars each time. Only patiently wait, do not chase short at present, and only go short when gold is strong. If the European and American markets are in place2022Above can start to empty, and the trend line suppresses the resistance level at2030. therefore2030Keep the bearish view unchanged below. European and American trading strategy: gold2022Empty, stop loss2030, Objective2000-1995；

United Statescrude oil：

Fundamental analysis:

Oil prices continue to decline on Thursday2%，WTIDeclaration of receipt71.40US dollars. The political impasse over the US debt ceiling has aroused anxiety about the economic recession of the world's largest oil consumer, while the increase in the number of US initial jobless claims and the weakness of Asian economic data have also hit oil prices. With regard to the uncertainty of the US debt ceiling, the banking problems that may lead to a credit crunch in most oil industries recently, and the strong possibility of a sustained economic recession, are still major obstacles to the oil market. Last week, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States jumped to its highest level in a year and a half, indicating that as demand slows down, there are cracks in the labor market, which may leave room for the Federal Reserve to pause further interest rate hikes next month.OPECIn a monthly report, it is stated that,2023World oil demand will increase in23310000 barrels/Day, or2.3%. This is different from the prediction made last month23210000 barrels/The daily level remained basically unchanged. The recent oil price transaction needs to focus on the meeting to be held next week on the issue of the US debt ceiling, and the risk of uncertainty is high.

     This article is written by Guo ShengxinVX:gsx2567For reference only, I am reading online and analyzing in real-time every day. Due to network issues, the article can only provide you with temporary directions and ideas. As for the specific operations in the later stage, they will be provided in real-time in the group disk.