Guo Shengxin:5.12 黄金暴跌还会涨吗?黄金行情趋势分析操作建议

　　goldMarket trend analysis;

Thursday（5month11日）美国公布的PPI指数显示出通胀放缓迹象，而初请失业金人数则创下逾1年半新高，表明美联储的紧缩政策正在发挥作用。不过，美联储官员卡什卡利发表了偏鹰言论，令黄金遭到猛烈抛售。美市盘中，现货黄金交投于2011dollar/盎司附近。日内公布的数据显示，美国4Monthly Producer Price Index（PPI）月率增长0.2%, expected0.30%, Previous value-0.50%； U.S.A4monthPPIAnnual growth rate2.3%, expected2.4%, Previous value2.70%。市场参与者密切关注作为批发水平通胀指标的PPI。它被视为一个领先指标，因为生产商倾向于将更高的价格转嫁给消费者。PPI指标对美联储也至关重要。在上周再度加息25个基点后，美联储刚刚暗示其紧缩周期可能在6月暂停。同时公布的另一项数据显示，美国至5month6Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week26.4Ten thousand people, for2021year10month30日当周以来新高。美国上周初请失业金人数上升至2021年以来的最高水平，这表明劳动力市场正在降温。最近的数据高于2019年（疫情爆发前）约22万人的周平均水平。申请失业救济人数今年呈上升趋势，表明失业人数正在从历史低点上升。近几个月来，科技、房地产和金融等行业的大公司纷纷宣布裁员。与此同时，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，尽管官员们正在评估银行业压力对美国经济的影响，但价格压力仍然太大。

　　黄金走势分析：黄金昨日探高回落符合预期，先扬后抑，日线收盘小阴十字K线，高低点都集中在美盘时段，亚欧盘主要以窄幅整理修正为主。美盘先冲高至2048一线承压快速转换回落至2021.80.尾盘再次陷入2000关口之上启稳收盘。日线的十字星K线整理，短期将继续维持高位整理拉锯。目前在反复整理但还是启稳在2000整数关口以上，此位之上还是震荡行情，短线可能伴随反复的冲高回落蓄势走法。美元阴晴不定，多空持续性不足，使得黄金暂时也走不出单边，等待蓄势打破。

From the perspective of daily structure, although there is data impact, gold's performance yesterday did not exceed the technical range and surged to the upper edge of the range2048-50The pressure level falls back and eventually retracts5日线附近，带有上下影线，这样的状态既表明当前多头的上攻无力，也说明多空双方开始有所僵持，单以技术角度来看，短线行情还是有延续调整的可能性的。但是目前黄金依然有很大的不确定风险，一是日线级别技术上，日均线已经交叉向上，如果短期内行情不进行有效的空间回撤，那么均线带的交叉向上状态可能会加强多头信心；二是近期基本面对于黄金空头也很不利，如果短期内没有利空消息触发行情空间回撤，那么多头信心也会在震荡消化中逐步增强。

Gold4The hour chart is accompanied by a rising and falling trend, with a longer upper shadow crossing the shadeK线，要想进一步下挫，前提条件得蓄势击穿2000At the checkpoint, we can further see the downward space. Currently, we are repeatedly organizing, but we are still stabilizing2000Above the integer level, the market is still volatile above this level, and in the short term, it may be accompanied by repeated highs and lows to accumulate momentum and move forward. The uncertain weather of the US dollar and insufficient sustainability of bullish and bearish positions make it difficult for gold to move unilaterally for the time being. Waiting for the momentum to break. Follow above in the day2040Nearby short pressure, hourly chart level range, upper edge pressure level, lower attention2020Competition, the middle zone of the hour chart interval, followed by attention below2013-10The lower edge of the hour chart interval. Technically speaking, the market may be more inclined towards correction and adjustment, but this week's performance is still bullish and emotional, which is also a key factor hindering the normal operation of the market. The key is whether it can open up space when falling from the upper track to the lower track2000整数关口的得与失，不破则维持区间看拉锯震荡。