Guo Shengxin:5.11Analysis of the trend of gold prices and market trends, and evening US market layout strategy

【gold】

Gold was under pressure to recover yesterday and returned as expected before late trading2030Shake up and down, enjoy beautyCPIAffected by data, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are unclear, and gold experienced a brief upward trend, measuring pressure to2048After a significant retracement of gains, it fell to2020After the first line, there was a rebound and oscillation, and the daily line finally closed with a negative star line with up and down shadow lines5Near the daily line.

From the daily structure perspective, although there was data impact, gold's performance yesterday did not exceed the technical range and surged to the upper edge of the range2048-50The pressure level falls back and eventually retracts5Near the daily line, there are up and down shadow lines, which not only indicate the current weakness of the bulls' uptrend, but also indicate that there is a stalemate between the long and short sides. From a technical perspective alone, there is still a possibility of continued adjustment in the short-term market. However, there are still significant uncertainties in gold at present. Firstly, at the daily level, technically, the daily moving average has crossed upwards. If there is no effective spatial retreat in the short term, the cross upward state of the moving average may strengthen bulls' confidence; Secondly, facing short positions in gold in the near future is also very unfavorable. If there is no bearish news in the short term to trigger a pullback in market space, then the confidence of bulls will gradually increase in the process of shock digestion. In terms of daily structure, gold may face significant selection risks today, and the upper part can focus on yesterday's high points and the upper edge of the range2047-50Under pressure, there will still be5Daily line2030-27As the key to short-term competition, you can continue to follow below10Daily line2020Nearby competition, if the market falls below10Daily line, then look below20Daily line2010-07Competition in the region, technically more inclined to fall back to the market20The volatility near the daily line provides support and consolidation, but the current bullish sentiment in the market is extreme, making it difficult to achieve this expectation in the short term.



Combined with the hourly chart trend, yesterday's gold trend was still very emotional, beautifulCPIThe data did not provide clear direction choices, but instead made short-term emotions more unstable. During the day, gold may choose range fluctuations to digest, and technically, it is more inclined to make a correction adjustment. However, due to the current unstable emotions, if there are any abnormal movements that may cause a rise, it is also unavoidable. Follow above within the day2040Nearby short pressure, hourly chart level range, upper edge pressure level, lower attention2030Competition, the middle zone of the hour chart interval, followed by attention below2023-20The lower edge of the hourly chart interval. Technically speaking, the market is more inclined towards a correction and adjustment, but this week's performance is still bullish and emotional, which is currently a key factor hindering the normal operation of the market.



In terms of operation, today's gold market is temporarily expected to fluctuate within a certain range, while retaining the expectation of technical adjustments. However, it is more important to guard against the risk of emotional fluctuations again, and there was no change in the market last night. Therefore, the risk of changing the market through fundamentals on Thursday and Friday evenings will also increase, so it is necessary to be cautious.

① Conservative observation during the day, it is necessary to reduce participation frequency and temporarily observe the range2040—2030—2020It fluctuates back and forth, and in the evening, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of fundamentals before making adjustments.

② During the daytime white trading period, aggressive measures can be taken during pressure measurement2035、2038Nearby light warehouse, short range, with stop loss2040Above, look down at the target2030Reduce positions nearby, change to break even and stop loss, and hold the remaining orders for further review2023-20If there is further reduction in positions in the region, and short orders change to break even and stop loss after making profits, there may be a moderate reserve for retracement and later withdrawal2010Nearby expectations.

③ Although the current market is relatively strong, this bullish state is very emotional and has a fundamental foundation, but the technical foundation is poor, making it difficult to operate. Therefore, we will not consider participating in long positions temporarily unless the market retreats in the short term2010Make real-time adjustments nearby.



【crude oil】

Mei Oil fluctuated high yesterday, and in the evening, Mei OilEIAAfter the crude oil inventory data, the market volatility is also limited and has not changed to a volatile state. The daily closing has a small negative line, which is also in line with technical needs. Although the upward trend may be temporarily delayed, the downward trend may not be implemented quickly because the current market fundamentals are relatively light, and there is no clear direction guidance for both long and short sides.



Based on the daily chart and hourly chart structure, for the time being, the US crude oil market is expected to fluctuate within the range, with a focus on the upper edge of the hourly chart level range73.5-8In this area, radical individuals can take advantage of their light positions and seize short-term opportunities to stand firm74Above, temporarily stop loss and leave the field to observe. Below, you can pay attention to the lower edge of the hourly interval72.3-0One area, short orders can be reduced at this point, but some holding orders can be retained. With good breakeven and stop loss measures in place, we can see if there is a possibility of expansion and adjustment in the later stage71.3-0, and even70Expectations.

This article is written by Guo ShengxinVX:gsx2567For reference only, I am reading online and analyzing in real-time every day. Due to network issues, the article can only provide you with temporary directions and ideas. As for the specific operations in the later stage, they will be provided in real-time in the group disk.