Guide Metallographer:5.11今日黄金走势分析，美联暂停加息预期升温

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(5month10day)冲高回落加剧震荡，开盘价2026.75dollar/Ounces, highest price2048.00dollar/Ounces, lowest price2021.28dollar/Ounces, closing price2024.84dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States4After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate recorded0.4%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of0.1%； U.S.A4Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate recorded5.5%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of5.6%； U.S.A4Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate recorded4.9%, lower than market expectations5.00%, previous value is5.00%。


　　评论称，4月份的通胀数据与预期相符。信贷市场的紧缩可能只会对经济增长和通胀产生渐进的影响。通货膨胀仍然太高，因此美联储不太可能改变其措辞。他们会坚持他们无意降息的说法。不过，他们的观点可能会随着风向和数据而改变。


　　美国白宫表示，CPI报告的结果是进步的，债务违约是最大威胁。在美国经济和就业市场强劲的当下，年通货膨胀率已经连续10个月下降，失业率处于50多年来的最低水平。虽然我们在降低家庭成本方面还有很多工作要做，但总统的《通胀削减法案》已经在降低处方药、医疗保健和家庭能源成本方面发挥了作用。根据今天的报告，自去年夏天以来，年通货膨胀率下降了45%。汽油价格从夏季的峰值下降了近1.5美元，杂货价格在过去两个月里实际上已经下降，为家庭提供了一些喘息空间。


Federal Reserve SpeakerNick Timiraos撰文称，美联储官员在4monthCPI数据公布前便已经倾向于在夏季暂停加息，以观察在减缓经济和通胀方面是否已经做得足够。昨日的美国通胀报告让这一点变得更容易实现，报告显示，物价压力并没有恶化，而且随着住房租赁成本的放缓开始逐渐影响到通胀指标，价格压力可能很快也会同步放缓。更重要的是，美联储官员需要时间来观察最近银行系统紧张的影响。可以肯定的是，通胀并没有显示出令人信服的放缓，但鲍威尔六个月前说，官员们并不一定会认为只有一系列通胀数据的放缓才是美联储暂停加息的先决条件。


　　世界黄金协会最新发布4月黄金月报，回顾4月黄金行情，以美元计价黄金仅上涨0.1%，在第一季度强劲上涨后进行了盘整。对黄金的支撑来自较低的利率和积极的ETF资金流入，而较低的通胀预期和获利了结造成了拖累。今年迄今的强劲上涨使得金价需要一个催化剂来突破其历史高点：一个可能的推手是美股大幅回调，因为在基本面不断恶化的情况下，估值仍然很高。在股市大幅调整期间，黄金的表现几乎总是积极的，但在幅度上差异很大；过去，黄金涨幅与实际利率水平密切相关。在目前的水平上，这两个因素表明，金价对股市大幅抛售的反应可能处于历史区间的上端。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day4.04Tons, current position is938.99Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is93.9%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is6.1%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is54.7%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is41.9%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is3.4%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　19:00Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Resolutions and Meeting Minutes


　　19:30Bank of England Governor Bailey Holds a Press Conference


　　20:30From the United States to5month6Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A4monthPPIAnnual and monthly rates


　　22:15Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold returned under pressure yesterday and returned as expected before late trading2030Shake up and down, enjoy beautyCPIAffected by data, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are unclear, and gold experienced a brief upward trend, measuring pressure to2048After a significant retracement of gains, it fell to2020After the first line, there was a rebound and oscillation, and the daily line finally closed with a negative star line with up and down shadow lines5Near the daily line.


From the perspective of daily structure, although there is data impact, gold's performance yesterday did not exceed the technical range and surged to the upper edge of the range2048-50The pressure level falls back and eventually retracts5Near the daily line, there are up and down shadow lines, which not only indicate the current weakness of the bulls' uptrend, but also indicate that there is a stalemate between the long and short sides. From a technical perspective alone, there is still a possibility of continued adjustment in the short-term market. However, there are still significant uncertainties in gold at present. Firstly, at the daily level, technically, the daily moving average has crossed upwards. If there is no effective spatial retreat in the short term, the cross upward state of the moving average may strengthen bulls' confidence; Secondly, facing short positions in gold in the near future is also very unfavorable. If there is no bearish news in the short term to trigger a pullback in market space, then the confidence of bulls will gradually increase in the process of shock digestion. In terms of daily structure, gold may face significant selection risks today, and the upper part can focus on yesterday's high points and the upper edge of the range2047-50Under pressure, there will still be5Daily line2030-27As the key to short-term competition, you can continue to follow below10Daily line2020Nearby competition, if the market falls below10Daily line, then look below20Daily line2010-07Competition in the region, technically more inclined to fall back to the market20The volatility near the daily line provides support and consolidation, but the current bullish sentiment in the market is extreme, making it difficult to achieve this expectation in the short term.


Gold4The hour chart is accompanied by a rising and falling trend, with a longer upper shadow crossing the shadeKLine, but the end of the day still closed at2030Neutral position, no further breakdown due to any downward movement2000Gateway.4Houbulin Road is still closing in, and to further decline, the prerequisite is to have the momentum to break through2000At the checkpoint, we can further see the downward space. Currently, we are repeatedly organizing, but we are still stabilizing2000Above the integer level, the market is still volatile above this level, and in the short term, it may be accompanied by repeated highs and lows to accumulate momentum and move forward. The uncertain weather of the US dollar and insufficient sustainability of bullish and bearish positions make it difficult for gold to move unilaterally for the time being. Waiting for the momentum to break. Follow above in the day2040Nearby short pressure, hourly chart level range, upper edge pressure level, lower attention2020Competition, the middle zone of the hour chart interval, followed by attention below2013-10The lower edge of the hour chart interval. Technically speaking, the market may be more inclined towards correction and adjustment, but this week's performance is still bullish and emotional, which is also a key factor hindering the normal operation of the market. The key is whether it can open up space when falling from the upper track to the lower track2000The gains and losses of integer levels are maintained within a certain range to see fluctuations. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above2040-2045Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2010-13Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.11Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2038-2040Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2030-2020Nearby, break down and take a look2010frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2010-2012Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2020-2030Nearby, break down and take a look2035frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)