Guo Shengxin:5.11黄金今日实时行情趋势分析；金油日内短线策...

　　goldAnalysis of the latest market trend

Thursday（5month11During the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading in2032.92dollar/盎司附近。隔夜美国通胀数据弱于市场预期，市场对美联储6月份加息预期降温，美元指数走弱，金价一度冲高至2050关口附近，不过，随后金价回吐全部涨幅，并一度回落至2020关口附近，因为市场意识到美国通胀仍处于较高的水平，短期内降息的可能性不大。分析师表示：“仍存在美联储将不得不在更长时间内保持较高利率的风险......需要进一步激进消化降息预期，金价才能继续其涨势。”策略师表示，但由于核心通胀率与上月持平，且远高于美联储的目标，黄金短期内可能会走势挣扎。

　　一些分析师表示，鉴于持续的经济担忧，包括潜在的美国债务违约，金价可能会尝试再次冲向纪录高位。人们认为，美联储在6月开会时可能会维持利率不变，除非价格压力意外回升。话虽如此，仍然很高的通胀或将让美联储不太可能很快降息。整体来看，对美国债务违约危机的担忧仍给金价提供避险支撑，但美国通胀整体依然较高，美联储不会很快降息，英国央行料将进一步加息，而且美国债务违约的概率低于2011年，金价短线偏向高位震荡运行。鉴于隔夜金价冲高回落，多头士气有所减弱，短线略微偏向震荡下行。

　　黄金昨日探高回落符合预期，先扬后抑，日线收盘小阴十字K线，高低点都集中在美盘时段，亚欧盘主要以窄幅整理修正为主。美盘先冲高至2048一线承压快速转换回落至2021.80.尾盘再次陷入2000关口之上启稳收盘。点位为前，趋势为后。卡住上轨空，做小波段问题不大。日线的十字星K线整理，短期将继续维持高位整理拉锯。4The hour chart is accompanied by a rising and falling trend, with a longer upper shadow crossing the shadeKLine, but the end of the day still closed at2030Neutral position, no further breakdown due to any downward movement2000Gateway.4Houbulin Road is still closing in, and to further decline, the prerequisite is to have the momentum to break through2000At the checkpoint, we can further see the downward space. Currently, we are repeatedly organizing, but we are still stabilizing2000整数关口以上，此位之上还是震荡行情，短线可能伴随反复的冲高回落蓄势走法。美元阴晴不定，多空持续性不足，使得黄金暂时也走不出单边。等待蓄势打破。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上郭晟鑫建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方重点关注2045-2050Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2018-2023Frontline support.

United Statescrude oil：

Fundamental analysis:

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, ending three consecutive days of gains. Economic data was mixed and did not provide a clear interest rate path for the Federal Reserve. However, inflation data suggests that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates; The US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased, and the US debt ceiling impasse triggered economic concerns, dragging down oil prices. US Energy Information Agency(EIA)On Wednesday, it was announced that due to the re release of national reserves and a decrease in exports, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week, while gasoline inventories fell more than expected due to a jump in demand. As of5month5During the past week, crude oil inventories increased300Ten thousand barrels, reaching4.626Billion barrels, strategic oil reserves(SPR)Reduced for the sixth consecutive week, decreased last week29010000 barrels to3.62Billion barrels, for1983year10The lowest since the beginning of the month. The stalemate in the US Congress over the debt ceiling and the risk of US default could lead to a financial panic, which could have devastating economic consequences. On the whole, oil prices were affected by higher inflation data, and the unexpected increase of US crude oil inventory. The deadlock of the US debt ceiling further triggered economic concerns, and the increase of oil prices may be limited.