Guo Shengxin:5.11黄金多空来回纠缠，原油高位回落，金油周四...

　goldMarket trend analysis;

Wednesday(5month10day)20:30，美国劳工部公布4Monthly Inflation Report, Overall and CoreCPI年率都走低，支持美联储6月份保持利率不变。现货黄金跳涨逾18USD to2048.17dollar/Ounces. Data display, United States4Monthly overallCPIAnnual rate recorded4.90%，预期值和前值均为5%；4Monthly CoreCPI年率符合预期值5.50%, lower than the previous value5.60%. Federal Reserve6月份政策会议前景取决于在此之前公布的几个高频数据，而4月份通胀数据在它们中名列前茅。尽管核心通胀年率仍然是2%目标的两倍多，但美联储官员希望看到通胀被降服。有分析师表示：美联储对任一方向的意外数据做出反应的门槛都很高。在完成累计500个基点加息并预计区域银行间的重组会导致信贷紧缩之后，除非通胀重新加速，美联储不太可能仅仅因为通胀‘粘性’而进一步收紧货币政策。尽管与银行业压力相关的金融环境收紧将有助于进一步降温经济，但美联储进一步加息的前景依然存在，上周公布的4月份非农就业报告显示，即使面对美联储行动，就业市场仍然非常强劲，这可能迫使央行在未来某个时候继续加息。

Technical analysis of gold; Gold rebounded from the small positive line yesterday and stabilized at2000The integer level has rebounded, but the key support level has not been missed in the short term, making the sustainability of the space weak. The short-term uncertainty of the US dollar is uncertain, and the changes in yin and yang have temporarily prevented gold from moving out of one side. Whether it is currently confirming resistance by touching high or a strong recovery of lost ground remains to be confirmed. In the process of market consolidation, there are often times when there is a double dip, with the focus on whether to recover the high point or break down after reaching the high point2000Pass, construct a daily level two wave decline. At present, it is still in the process of morphological construction, and before breaking through in operation, it is treated with a high level oscillation approach.4The hour chart is stable2000Slowly rebounding and recovering above the level, there are signs of testing high points again in the short term. Looking back at the bullish and bearish changes in the form, will the pressure continue to accumulate momentum after reaching higher or will it continue to rise further. The short term may be accompanied by volatility, and the uncertain strength of the US dollar also makes it more difficult for gold to choose its direction in the short term. It will accompany the way of washing dishes and sawing. Breaking high up2078There is still a certain distance left, and we are currently breaking down2000There is also a certain distance, with the short line sweeping back and forth between neutral positions. Pay attention to the rhythm of the washing period and grasp the high altitude and low altitude within the interval. Overall, in terms of the short-term operation strategy for gold today, Guo Shengxin suggests that the main focus should be on a pullback and a long run, supplemented by a rebound in high altitude, with a focus on short-term operations above2050-2055Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2020-2015Frontline support.






　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

　　5month10日（周三）美市盘中，美原油交投于73.86dollar/Near the barrel; Oil prices rose on Tuesday, rebounding from earlier intraday gains of over2%The decline was due to the market balancing the US government's plan to replenish the country's emergency oil reserves with the expected seasonal increase in demand. The Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates, Mazruyi, stated on Monday that,OPEC+产油国实施的额外自愿减产是为了平衡石油市场。 马兹鲁伊在世界公共事业大会期间向记者表示，他担心投资少会导致未来供应短缺，我并不是很担心非常短期的问题，我认为我们可以设法平衡供应和需求。我更担心的是未来几年所需的投资水平。美国能源信息署(EIA)Tuesday forecast,2023US crude oil production will increase by approximately5%Fuel demand will increase1%The agency also lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil and US crude oil prices.EIAThe total amount of oil consumption will be2023Annual increase nearly1%, reaching2,05010000 barrels/Day,2024Annual material increase1.4%, reaching208010000 barrels/Day. The growth of energy demand will drive the global oil market to2023Third quarter of the year and2024Achieve a balanced state between the first quarter of the year. Overall, despite the increase in US crude oil inventories last week, andEIAestimate2023US oil production will increase by approximately5%Bearish oil prices, but short-term oil prices may benefit more from the Biden administration's plan to repurchase oil later this year and rise; Oil prices are expected to rise within the day75dollar/Barrel gate.

Technical analysis of crude oil; Crude oil further rebounded upwards yesterday, with a strong four consecutive positive rebound at the bottom of the daily line and a downward trend yesterday71.30After stabilizing on the first line, it further recovered and rose, closing at a high level. The daily line combines with the previous bottom crossKThe double bottoms are currently confirmed to continue rebounding towards the neckline.4The hour chart points to the middle track, which was emphasized yesterday,4The hour chart structure rebounds and rises in a wave shape. After stepping back, pay attention to the shape of the stable track and then push the second wave up. Yesterday, after stepping back, it quickly turned positive and recovered, while breaking the downward trend line.4The hourly chart is in the process of organizing and accumulating momentum to further rebound upwards. Previously, oil prices rebounded for four consecutive trading days, but still suffered from previous declines50%Withdrawal position and4month28The dual resistance suppression of daily lows,MACDThe dead cross signal continues, and short-term oil prices face certain pullback risks, with initial support at10Daily moving average72.61Nearby,5The daily moving average is supported by71.85Nearby, if the position is missed, add a short-term bearish signal; However,KDJThe golden fork runs well,KThe line shape is already preliminaryVForm reversal, in the process of falling behind5Recently, oil prices still tend to fluctuate upwards in the future, if they can break through4month28Daily low point73.92Nearby resistance is expected to be further explored21Daily moving average76.21Nearby resistance, early decline61.8%The resistance to retreat is also near this position. If it can further break up, it will increase the bullish signal of the midline; Overall, Guo Shengxin suggests focusing on short-term operations for crude oil today74.5-75.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below71.5-71.0Frontline support.