Guide Metallographer:5.10Today's gold trend analysis, USCPI料继续震荡偏强

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Wednesday(5month10day)：国际黄金开盘先行偏向走强，美元指数及美债收益率开盘走软对其产生支撑，不过走强力度有限，走盘也存在技术回撤的需求。


　　另外，美元指数虽未持稳站稳日图中轨阻力上方，但在跌破101关口前，仍有筑底震荡的走盘预期，这将限制金价反弹动力，以及，美债10年期收益率短期也有望维持走强，而再度令金价受压。故此，短期走势，金价仍偏向震荡为主。继续等待本周的美国CPI数据的公布，和债务上限的谈判结果，来打开方向。


Focus on the United States within the day4Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPI年率和月率，以及美国4Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPI年率。将为投资者提供有关通胀状况的最新数据。


　　目前市场总体CPI年率维持5.0%不变，月率明显增强，而核心CPI预计将有所走软，好坏参半，但鉴于预期下降的力度不大，而最终有偏向利空金价的风险，不过根据之前纽约联储调查显示的一年期通胀从4.7%lower4.4%，以及昨日美联储理事杰斐逊表示的关于通货膨胀，已经开始以“有序的方式”放缓，并将随着经济的持续增长而下降来看。晚间消费者价格指数CPI或大概率助力金价继续震荡走强。


　　不过，凌晨纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，我们还没有说我们已经结束了加息，这将取决于数据，如果需要，可能会加息。所以，如数据超预期再度显示通胀升温，那么仍将令其市场对于美联储在6月产生加息的强烈猜测。而令金价震荡走盘后，再度偏回落为主，并使得本周再度收取长脚上影线的倒垂看空形态，令后市产生持续回调的需求。


　　但，综合而言，张尧浠认为：不管影响如何，就算利空打压金价下跌，也都是短期的行情走势，进一步的加息，也只会令经济衰退的预期增加，何况是在目前债务上限的讨论紧迫背景下；


　　昨日，美国总统拜登接待了国会官员，讨论美国债务上限问题。也没有看到任何新的进展，并延续至周五再次会面就债务上限问题。


　　如果，美国两大政党仍无法就提高31.4万亿美元的联邦债务上限达成一致，为了不超过联邦债务上限而使用特殊会计手段的能力最早可能在6月初耗尽。未来几周，当美国触及债务上限、无法支付所有账单时，它将引发新的动荡。那么，金价将走出类似于2011The debt ceiling situation for the year; Although an agreement was ultimately reached, four days later, credit rating agency Standard&Poor's cancelled the US government debtAAA评级。并将黄金价格推至新纪录。即未来几周金价可能达到或超过2300美元或更高的位置。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Germany4monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　20:30U.S.A4After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday's overall support for gold technology2020The level continues to fluctuate and recover from the bullish upward trend, while the Asia Europe market slightly rises to2028Under pressure at the checkpoint, it fell back and stabilized after a second dip in the afternoon2021The first line quickly rebounded, and the evening price rose again and pierced through2032The first line came under pressure again and fell, with prices rapidly falling before and after the US market2023Further rebound near the neck line of the first stable European market in the early morning, breaking through the high station2030First line closing, daykThe online closing fluctuated and rebounded to a mid day positive, with the overall price reaching a low point in non agricultural sectors last Friday2000整数关口后连续两个交易日迎来多头反弹回升修复，不过整体节奏上依旧处于多空震荡运行，近期价格大概率将延续以时间换空间宽幅震荡节奏，今日下方支撑关注2023-2020Near, above pressure2043-45附近，日内继续依托此区间高空低多循环参与看震荡；


　　日线周期局部录得大阴构筑黄昏之星形态，整体于2070附近构筑三山顶部形态，后市整体可看下行；现日线周期局部接连录得两根小阳，但行情仍处于黄昏之星形态之中，故反弹仍可继续接空。4小时周期整体于2060附近录得双顶形态，整体构筑平顶形态，后市整体可看下行；目前局部于支撑2000附近录得看涨吞没形态后，后续录得一系列的小实线和纺锤线呈震荡上行，短线并未见明显信号，但整体并未逾越大阴实体，故整体仍是看下行，可依托前市多空转折区间2038-2040跟进空单！


　　1小时图看，行情正处于关键节点，对于多头来说，如果不能再短时间内打破上方2045一线的阻力，那就是跟跳水前2050一线的横盘是一样的节奏了，上方不破，处于下行通道的k线就顺势下跌。操作上还是要高空为主。日线图看，k线有收到来自5Daily moving average2045一线的压制，也就是小时图上方压力的来源，话说回来，k线现在的形态是出于对前期行情下跌的技术反弹，所以中长线看来，还是要继续看回调。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注2040-2045Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2020-2010Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　5.10Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2038-2040Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2030-2025Nearby, break down and take a look2020frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2020-2022Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2030-2040Nearby, break down and take a look2045frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)

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