Guide Metallographer:4.26Analysis of today's gold trend, reigniting concerns about the banking crisis

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(4month25day)Reaching the bottom and rebounding, closing higher again, opening price1984.63dollar/Ounces, highest price2000.74dollar/Ounces, lowest price1975.93dollar/Ounces, closing price1989.76dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday4Consumer confidence index of the monthly consultation chamber recorded101.3, lower than market expectations104, previous value is104.2； U.S.A3Annualized total monthly sales of new homes68.3Higher than market expectations63, previous value is64； U.S.A4Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Record-10, lower than expected-8, previous value is-5.


Analysis shows that the United States3The unexpected increase in new home sales in January to the highest level in a year indicates that the relaxation of mortgage interest rates is helping the real estate market find some foothold. According to data released by the US government on Tuesday, the United States3Annualized month on month growth in total new home sales9.6%, to68.310000 sets, higher than2After monthly revision62.3Ten thousand sets, with an expected median of63.2Ten thousand. In the current housing price environment, many homeowners are unwilling to list their houses for sale, so more and more potential buyers are turning to the new home market. The stability of residential construction will help support inventory, although current supply is still limited. Builders are using incentives and price reductions to increase people's affordability.


Commentary states that due to a more pessimistic view of the economic outlook, US consumer confidence has dropped this month to last year7The lowest level since the beginning of the month. According to data released on Tuesday, consumer confidence at the American Consultative Conference has increased from3Of the month104lower4Of the month101.3The expected median is104。 And the consumer expectation index has decreased68.1Last year, too7The lowest level since the beginning of the month. However, the Consumer Status Index has risen to151.1。


The report shows that the stock price of First Republic Bank has been discounted by 50%, and its market value has dropped to a historical low15USD100mn Insiders revealed that the bank is considering divestment500Billion-1000Billion US dollars in assets, with potential buyers including several large US banks.


Analysis shows that concerns about the banking crisis have once again weighed on the market's pricing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike,6The monthly Federal Reserve interest rate swap contract currently reflects that the central bank's benchmark interest rate is only higher than the current effective federal funds rate20A basis point, which implies two future occurrencesFOMCThe possibility of an interest rate hike during the meeting is approximately80%And previously expected the Federal Reserve5Monthly interest rate hikes are almost guaranteed.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day2.61Tons, current position is930.04Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is23.4%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is76.6%； reach6The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is20.5%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is70.2%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is9.3%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　09:30Australia Q1CPIthe annual rate


　　09:30Australia3Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　14:00Germany5monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　16:00Switzerland4monthZEWInvestor confidence index


　　18:00britain4monthCBIRetail sales difference


　　20:30U.S.A3Monthly rate of durable goods orders


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold rebounded and measured its pressure yesterday2000On the first line, the market continued to fall under pressure, and before late trading, the market fell to1976Nearby, the US market rebounded and pulled up during the trading session. Later in the night, due to market speculation on risk aversion, gold also benefited from a rebound, and the high point was measured to2003On the first line, the daily line receives a small yang.


In terms of daily structure, although gold closed positive yesterday, changing the continuous Yin Yang interlocking situation for many days, the direction is in the same direction as the US index. The state of rising at the same time indicates that the main reason for this rise is due to the rise of risk aversion, and it is technically abnormal to break out of this trend. Although the gold market closed positive, it still did not stand firmly above the moving average band in terms of technology, leaving technical adjustment risks. However, the time required for further downward adjustments may be extended. Still paying close attention to gold during the day10Daily and Trend Lines2000-03Nearby competition, if the risk aversion sentiment within the day does not fade, then gold is allowed to sprint once2010However, this trend is still beyond the expectation of the technical structure. After all, it is also affected by market sentiment, which is difficult to control. Therefore, we only keep this expectation, but there is no need to follow this emotional trend. Technically, it is still advisable to adjust expectations, but it will take some time to digest the current risk aversion sentiment. Therefore, there may not be much room for gold to retreat in the short term. Let's continue to pay attention below5Daily line1990Competition, important short-term support, still paying attention to the trend line below1980-76One area.


Based on the hourly chart, although there is a technical need for the overnight gold's downward recovery, the continuous rebound in the end is still quite unexpected. At present, gold is still fluctuating within the hourly chart level range, but the short-term structure has been lifted by the overnight rebound. The intraday market may have a certain continuation of strong performance, and the upper part of the day can continue to pay attention2000-03If there is pressure in the area, if it breaks through, you can measure it up and see again2010Nearby pressure testing. Follow below in the day1993-90Step back test in the area, if the market falls back within the day1990Below, it is expected to return to a technically weak state in the short term, which can still be seen in the later stage1980-76Belt testing. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above2000-2003Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1976-1980Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.26Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2000-2003Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1990-1985Nearby, break down and take a look1980frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1976-1980Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1985-1990Nearby, break down and take a look1995frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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