CPT Markets : FEDThe soaring hawkish officials have pushed gold prices below the 2000 mark! Closed this week...

gold/dollar (XAUUSD)：

After a significant decline in gold against the US dollar last Friday and falling below the 2000 mark, the market closed in consolidation1982.47Nearby, several Federal Reserve officials pointed to speeches this week5The prospect of monthly interest rate hikes to combat high inflation has propelled the US dollar upwards, allowing it to avoid five consecutive weeks of decline and leading to two consecutive weeks of decline in gold prices.

In terms of bearish factors

1. Federal Reserve officials hawk loudly: Last Friday, the US dollar index closed higher due to concerns about the Federal Reserve5月会议加息的预期渐浓，这一周美联储有数位官员发表讲话，基本都认为仍有必要进一步加息以降低通胀。大部分市场参与者认为，美联储只需再加息一次至5.00%-5.25%，而圣路易斯联储主席 Brad 更认为需要在此基础上再提高50Basis points, to5.50%-5.75%。

In terms of positive factors

1. 采取加息后续的效应：美联储通过加息控制通胀的同时也会抑制经济增长。近期经济数据显示，劳动力市场持续降温、制造业活动放缓、消费者支出下滑，这一系列迹象似乎也为经济衰退前景增添佐证。劳动力市场放缓加剧了零售销售和制造业活动的下滑，加剧了最早在今年下半年陷入衰退的风险。有调查显示，未来两年美国经济衰退的可能性高达70%。经济衰退可能会压缩美联储继续提高利率的空间，尤其是在之前的大部分加息尚未真正影响到经济的情况下。近期出现的银行业压力可能会对经济活动造成压力，银行收紧了贷款，这可能会使家庭和小企业更难获得信贷。

2. 美联储紧缩周期将尽：自去年3月以来，美联储已连续加息九次，累计加息幅度高达475个基点。利率futures走势显示市场预计下个月美联储加息25个基点的可能性接近90%，然后暂停加息并在年底前降息。而一些美联储官员和市场参与者认为5月加息后的今年剩余时间内将维持利率不变。

Press from above(Upper resistance) 1982.40，1984.10； From the downward direction, the lower support1980.80。

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