Guide Metallographer:4.20Today's gold trend analysis shows that the short-term volatility of gold prices is relatively weak

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Thursday(4month20day)The opening of international gold was hindered by short-term moving average pressure, resulting in a narrow range of performance. In addition, the US dollar index and US bond yields tended to strengthen in the early trading, which also limited the rebound momentum of gold prices.


Overall, the US dollar index shows that the daily chart is above the short-term moving average, and the attached indicators maintain the bullish signal of the gold cross, indicating that the mid track resistance in the daily chart is expected to break through, which will bring bearish pressure to gold prices. However, the weekly and monthly charts still show significant room for decline, so the pressure on gold prices is also limited. Therefore, gold prices are falling to yesterday's30Near or near the daily moving average support60Near the daily moving average, it is also possible to buy bullish. Here, yesterday's low point bullish multiple orders are also quite profitable.


However, after yesterday's closing pattern, the US bond yield has shown a downward demand in the short term, which will limit the decline of gold prices. Therefore, the trend of gold prices in the current day is mainly volatile.


Focus on the United States to4month15Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week(ten thousand people), USA4Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, United States3Annualized total monthly housing sales(10000 households), USA3Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate; Also, the European Central Bank released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting and Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivered a speech.


In terms of data, the overall expectation is biased towards bullish gold prices. In addition, according to the early morning Federal Reserve's Beige Book, the US economic growth has stagnated in recent weeks, and overall economic activity has not changed much, indicating that the probability will meet expectations.


In addition, the Eurobank minutes are expected to be biased towards an eagle, which has dampened the US dollar. Moreover, Waller's speech is expected to be in line with last Friday's biased view. Therefore, today's trend is likely to hit a bottom again and rebound, or it is more likely to end up in a volatile manner.


Fundamentally, at present, Federal Reserve officials collectively make hawkish remarks, and some even raise their5The intensity of the monthly interest rate hike and the extension of its cycle have led the market to be skeptical of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year, and have also caused bearish pressure on gold prices. However, the Federal Reserve stated in its brown book on regional business connections that the US economy has stagnated in recent weeks, with slower recruitment and inflation, and reduced credit channels. Due to increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity, banks have tightened their lending standards. And it may increase the possibility of Federal Reserve policymakers suspending interest rate hikes, and may also exacerbate concerns that the economy is sliding towards recession. Therefore, we still expect the economy to2023In the second half of this year, there will be a mild recession, and the unemployment rate will rise before the end of the year4.5%。


So, no matter what, despite the pressure of another aggressive interest rate hike on gold prices in the short term and the possibility of formation near historic highs in the medium term3The top resistance has fallen, but it is only a pullback adjustment. As the gold price enters the second half of this year, its bearish factors have almost disappeared, and the Federal Reserve interest rate has reached its peak, which will begin to shift to a sustained pace of interest rate cuts. Therefore, the gold price has hit a historical high in the second half of this year and moved towards2100or2300The probability of the US dollar is high, and the long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic.


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Germany3monthPPIMonthly rate


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly adjusted trade account


　　19:30European Central Bank Announces Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting


　　20:30From the United States to4month15Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index


　　20:45Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech


　　22:00U.S.A3Annualized total monthly housing sales


　　22:00U.S.A3Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate


　　24:00Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech on Financial innovation


The next day00:20Federal Reserve Meister delivers a speech


The next day03:00Federal Reserve Governor Bowman Attends the "Fed Listening" Event


The next day05:00Federal Reserve Bostick delivers a speech on economic conditions


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday's brief rebound pressure measurement of gold2008The first line once again showed weak and volatile performance, and the market suddenly accelerated its decline in the afternoon, falling below20Daily line1990There will be a certain delay in rebound later, but the upper confirmation1995After the pressure, gold bears in the European session once again exerted their power to decline, and the decline was significantly amplified. By the end of the evening session, the low point had fallen to the expected trend line support1970Nearby and with piercing movements. Judging from the decline performance of gold in the day, it is in line with expectations in space, and the pace of decline is more violent than expected. The main reason for short sellers to release downward momentum may be that market sentiment suddenly turns to hype the Federal Reserve5The expectation of further interest rate hikes in the month is related, of course, there is also pressure from the early selling of long profit orders.


At present, the overall trend of gold is in line with expectations, and the market has also fallen to the key support of expectations1970Nearby, but with some punctures, this indicates that this position may only be temporarily suspended and bring strong rebound momentum, and the later market trend also needs the influence of the news side. However, the news side may also bring emotional fluctuations, which may increase the difficulty of operation. For the time being, gold is still keeping a weak outlook, but given that the expected decline in the intraday market has already been completed, there may be a certain rebound pressure measurement process in the market. Therefore, the top should focus on Monday's low point first2000Belt testing, mainly focusing on pressure2010Nearby, as long as the gold doesn't return2005Above, there is still a possibility of a continuation of the downward trend, but the amount of rebound will also affect the sentiment of another decline in the future. The specific analysis and adjustment will be made based on the final closing today.


Yesterday's gold trend reached a low after hitting a lower pointVType reversal, although there is a reversal trend, erasing most of the decline, the price is still at2000Below the point, the expectation of a second decline under the suppression of intraday attention. Gold has achieved a high level decline test, with a relatively large degree of decline. However, after the sharp decline, the continuity of the second rebound still declined, forming a fluctuating rebound link in the middle. However, the result is still a downward pattern, as can be seen from both falls. And the short-term low rebound, once again rising, is still expected to be a downward trend, so the following market trend focuses on the continuity of the decline.


Secondly, it is not ruled out that there may be a rapid upward trend in the middle of the market, but the structural direction must be clear. Falling is a decline, correction is a correction, bearish and bullish, rising and falling one after another to follow the fluctuations of the market and change the rhythm at will, so sooner or later it will be constrained by the market. After determining the overall direction and approach, establish a small range and select key resistance and support points for opening positions. If the market fails to fluctuate as expected, compare and summarize the trend patterns of the market, and summarize effective trading participation methods with habitual participation. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above2003-2005Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1970-1973Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.20Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1996-2001Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1985-1975Nearby, break down and take a look1970frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1970-1973Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1985-1990Nearby, break down and take a look1995frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)